This project will enhance a machine learning (ML)-based excessive rainfall forecast system by improving and extending the historical datasets used to train and verify the model forecasts, as well as…

Colorado State University received a $370,908 cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Weather and Air Quality Research program (CFDA 11.459), effective August 1, 2025, through July 31, 2028. The project will enhance a machine learning (ML)-based excessive rainfall forecast system by improving and extending the historical datasets used to train and verify model forecasts. The work will also expand the predictors that characterize larger-scale atmospheric environments and antecedent conditions contributing to enhanced flood risk.

This effort supports NOAA's mission to advance weather observations, modeling, and forecasting capabilities to protect life and property. The three-year project, to be performed at Colorado State University's Fort Collins, Colorado campus, represents a research-to-operations transition activity typical of the Weather and Air Quality Research program, which emphasizes modernization of weather prediction systems and development of enhanced decision support tools for hazard forecasting and emergency management.

This project will enhance a machine learning (ML)-based excessive rainfall forecast system by improving and extending the historical datasets used to train and verify the model forecasts, as well as the predictors that characterize the larger-scale atmospheric environment and antecedent conditions that contribute to enhanced flood risk.