Project summary/abstract purpose we aim to better understand US shellfish aquaculture industry growth patterns, with a focus on business level decision-making related to entering, exiting (i.e.,…

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) received a $892,096 Cooperative Agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Sea Grant Support program (CFDA 11.417), effective September 1, 2025 through August 31, 2028. This award supports a three-year research initiative designed to analyze U.S. shellfish aquaculture industry growth patterns, with emphasis on business-level decision-making regarding market entry, exit, and expansion activities. The project focuses on six primary shellfish-producing states—Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Washington—representing approximately 70% of U.S. farmed shellfish production.

The primary deliverables include detailed analysis of leaseholder and production data to track state-level changes in the number of active leaseholders, acreage under lease, and production metrics over time; direct qualitative research through interviews with former, current, and prospective shellfish leaseholders regarding industry attrition, entry, expansion, and consolidation experiences; economic modeling and evaluation of the relationship between production scale and business success; and development of outreach materials for industry growers and resource managers. These outputs are intended to inform current and prospective shellfish growers about the effects of operational scale on economic sustainability, enabling more informed business positioning and realistic investment planning in the aquaculture sector.

Project summary/abstract purpose we aim to better understand US shellfish aquaculture industry growth patterns, with a focus on business level decision-making related to entering, exiting (i.e., selling the farm), and expanding within the industry. With farm exits and expansion in mind, we will also investigate likely drivers of industry change as well as likelihood of business success given different scales of operation and state-specific characteristics (e.g., restrictions on total farm acreage) activities to be performed the project includes activities linked to the four objectives below. All activities focus on the states of massachusetts, maryland, virginia, north carolina, florida, and washington, which represent an estimated 70% of US farmed shellfish production. Detail leaseholder and production change. Use leaseholder and production data to understand state-level changes in: a) number of individual leaseholders, B) acreage under lease, and C) production over time. Collect direct perspectives on industry change. Former, current, and prospective leaseholders will be interviewed to share their experience with industry attrition, entry, expansion, and consolidation. Evaluate the relationship between production, scale, and business success. Industry growth will be assessed relative to production, acreage under lease, drivers of change (e.g., seed supply, market price, storm events), and modeled business success. Develop materials for industry and resource managers. Outreach products will provide guidance for growers and resource managers related to how/whether production scale is likely to influence success. Expected outcomes current and prospective shellfish growers will be better informed about the effect of scale on their economic sustainability. Without this awareness, current growers may not position themselves for long-term success, while prospective growers may invest in unrealistic business plans and/or permitting attempts. The outcome of this increased knowledge and awareness should be improved profitability of farms and/or savings of opportunity costs (e.g., where a prospective shellfish farmer opts to not invest in a business plan that will likely fail). This project will also increase the awareness of regulators and resource managers about the trade-offs associated with scale in shellfish aquaculture. This awareness should allow regulators and resource managers to identify barriers to successful shellfish aquaculture. In turn, governing bodies will be able make better informed decisions about the costs and benefits of different strategies that affect the scale of shellfish aquaculture operations (e.g., acreage specific costs or requirements, limits on the size of leases within aquaculture development zones, etc.). 1 intended beneficiaries this project will benefit the shellfish aquaculture industry by enabling more realistic business planning and ultimately more profitable businesses. The industry will be further benefited through a more informed community of regulators and resource managers who, as a result of this project, can have a more complete understanding of the impacts of particular leasing structures or policies. Subrecipient activities subrecipient activities on this project support the four objectives above, and target state-level guidance on materials and approach, affirmation of project relevance and utility to the local industry, connections to local industry members, and overall project outreach. 2