Project abstract summary form project title: coastal dynamical downscaling to address high tide flooding along the united states coastal waters for sub-seasonal to annual time scales to advance the…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) awarded the University of Colorado a $232,244 Cooperative Agreement under CFDA 11.405 (Cooperative Institute Inter-Agency Funded Activities) effective September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2027. Under this agreement, the university will develop dynamical downscaling methodologies to address high tide flooding (nuisance flooding) affecting U.S. coastal communities along the East and Gulf Coasts. The primary deliverable is the STOFS-3D-S2S (Sequence to Sub-seasonal) product, a high-resolution coastal inundation forecasting system designed to bridge the resolution gap between global climate models (currently 0.25-degree horizontal resolution) and the 500-meter resolution required for accurate coastal flood predictions. This work focuses on downscaling global forecasts to capture tidal, sub-seasonal, and seasonal variations in total water levels for flood prediction purposes.

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) serves as a key sub-awardee, collaborating with the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Earth System Research and Dynamical Downscaling Studies (CIESRDS) and NOAA's Office of Coastal Survey to develop and refine the downscaled product. VIMS will contribute to multiple project goals, including model development, validation, and operational implementation, with deliverables phased across the two-year performance period. This cooperative effort leverages expertise from NOAA partners, including the Physical Sciences Laboratory and Office of Coastal Survey, to advance predictive capabilities for coastal hazards and support the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law objectives for coastal community resilience.

Project abstract summary form project title: coastal dynamical downscaling to address high tide flooding along the united states coastal waters for sub-seasonal to annual time scales to advance the bipartisan infrastructure law primary contact: james scott ciesrds, university of colorado addr: NOAA PSL, 325 broadway, boulder, CO 80305-3328