This project assesses NOAA's coastal ocean reanalysis (CORA) model skill for short- to mid-range (up to four weeks) high tide flood (HTF) forecasting along the U.S. East and gulf coasts

The University of Alabama received a $206,734 Cooperative Agreement award from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Cooperative Institute (Inter-Agency Funded Activities) program (CFDA 11.405), effective July 1, 2025 through March 31, 2027. This award supports the assessment of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) model's forecasting capability for short- to mid-range (up to four weeks) high tide flood (HTF) predictions along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. The project evaluates CORA's performance using atmospheric forcing from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), leveraging a spatially distributed HTF thresholding system to translate model predictions into actionable HTF advisories for coastal residents and decision-makers.

The research deliverables will inform best practices for CORA-based HTF forecasting and address critical coastal resilience challenges posed by changing sea levels and chronic flooding impacts. The project incorporates collaborative expertise through a sub-award to The Trustees of the Stevens Institute of Technology (awarded October 7, 2025) and builds upon prior Bipartisan Infrastructure Law-funded collaborative development with NOAA's National Ocean Service. Findings will align with Cooperative Institute priorities regarding coastal total water level prediction and risk communication across multiple timeframes, supporting federal objectives to enhance coastal flood forecasting capabilities.

Coastal HTF poses an increasing challenge in the face of changing sea levels, demanding reliable forecasting to help residents and decision-makers manage htfs chronic and acute impacts. CORA, produced via coupled modeling with adcirc and swan, uses hourly water levels from noaas CO-OPS (rose ET AL., 2024). We will evaluate coras forecasting capability under atmospheric forcing from NOAA global forecast system (GFS) and global ensemble forecast system (GEFS). Our approach leverages a spatially distributed HTF thresholding system (mahmoudi ET AL., 2024), developed in a ciroh-funded project in collaboration with NOAA-NOS, to translate CORA predictions into meaningful HTF advisories. This research will inform best practices for CORA-based HTF forecasting and aligns with ciroh priorities on coastal total water level prediction and risk communication across timeframes.