A multitude of studies globally have now documented shifts in the distribution of marine fishes and fisheries in relation to changing ocean conditions

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded a Cooperative Agreement totaling $1,336,867 to the University of Florida Division of Sponsored Research on October 1, 2025, under the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Science, Observation, Monitoring, and Technology program (CFDA 11.451).

The award funds research modeling historical, contemporary, and future trends in marine fish distribution and fisheries targeting along Florida's west coast in relation to changing ocean conditions including spatiotemporal shifts in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH. The project will monitor contemporary distributions of fisheries species using sentinel sites along a latitudinal gradient, estimate changes in growth and sexual maturity of select species, and evaluate abiotic variables such as temperature, salinity, currents, sea level, and mixed layer depth as forcing factors in fisheries distributions. Co-production activities involving natural resource managers, fisheries agencies, and angler groups will identify priority species for modeling. Expected outcomes include identification of northward shifts in fish species distribution centers and potential offshore movement to deeper, cooler waters, along with changes in body size and size at sexual maturity that could challenge regional management regulations.

Performance occurs in Gainesville, Florida from October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2030. The RESTORE Science Program, funded through Deepwater Horizon settlement resources, supports longer-term collaborative, co-produced science projects that inform Gulf of America ecosystem and fisheries management decisions.

These shifts potentially change the fisheries targeted, their distribution, and the growth and sexual maturity of the fish that can impact fisheries productivity. These changes can present opportunities as well as challenges to fisheries management. The proposed research will therefore focus on two areas of emphasis: fish, fisheries, and fishing communities in relation to future ocean conditions. The study will model historical, contemporary, and future trends in the targeting and distribution of select fisheries along the extensive latitudinal gradient of floridas west coast in relation to changing ocean conditions (e.g., spatiotemporal changes in temperature, dissolved oxygen, PH). Changes in the growth and sexual maturity of these species will also be estimated. Contemporary distributions of fisheries species will be monitored using sentinel sites along the latitudinal gradient. CO-production activities involving natural resource managers, fisheries agencies, and angler groups will identify priority species for modeling. A suite of abiotic variables (e.g., temperature, salinity, currents, sea level, mixed layer depth) will be considered as forcing factors in fisheries distributions, along with other potentially important abiotic and biotic variables, such as changes in habitat and prey availability. Expected findings include northward shifts in the centers of distribution of many fish species, and potentially offshore to deeper, cooler water; along with increased growth resulting in an overall smaller body size through time and smaller size at sexual maturity. Shifting distributions would be expected to be challenging for regional management regulations, as would changes in size at sexual maturity that are reflected in minimum length limit regulations. This research, in tandem with CO-production involving natural resource managers, fisheries agencies, and anglers throughout the study, will ultimately lead to adaptive, future management of recreational and commercial fisheries important to coastal fishing communities.