The NOAA center for operational oceanographic products and services (CO-OPS) operates a suite of coastal ocean nowcast and forecast models based on the regional ocean modeling system (roms) that…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) awarded Rutgers, The State University a $2.06 million Cooperative Agreement under the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) program (CFDA 11.012) effective July 1, 2025 through June 30, 2028. This three-year Phase 2 effort funds development of the East Coast Community Ocean Forecast System (ECCOFS), a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)-based nowcast and forecast platform designed to deliver water level, current, temperature, and salinity forecasts for maritime and coastal users across U.S. marine territorial waters adjacent to the 48 contiguous states and Puerto Rico. ECCOFS will complement the existing West Coast Operational Forecast System (WCOFS) to achieve complete forecast coverage and incorporates 4-dimensional variational data assimilation to integrate satellite observations and high-frequency radar surface current data for improved forecast initial conditions.

The award builds on successful Phase 1 development supported by Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding, during which the project team completed user needs assessments, prototype simulations, and established operational transition pathways with NOAA staff. Phase 2 activities encompass continued model refinement and preparation for integration into National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operations. Rutgers subcontracted development work to Fathom Science, Inc. (awarded September 18, 2025) and the University of California Santa Cruz (awarded August 28, 2025), leveraging specialized expertise in computational oceanographic modeling and data assimilation technologies to support system implementation and operational readiness.

The NOAA center for operational oceanographic products and services (CO-OPS) operates a suite of coastal ocean nowcast and forecast models based on the regional ocean modeling system (roms) that deliver water level, current, temperature and salinity forecast guidance for maritime and coastal users and stakeholders. In addition to limited area forecast systems for major estuaries and marginal seas (chesapeake BAY, delaware BAY, tampa BAY, gulf of maine and cook inlet, alaska), a further roms-based model is the west coast operational forecast system (wcofs) that covers baja california to juneau, AK. Prior to launching each 3-day forecast, wcofs assimilates observations of sea level and temperature from satellites and surface currents from HF-radar using a 4-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation algorithm to obtain data-constrained forecast initial conditions. The project described here will develop a roms 4D-VAR based east coast community ocean forecast system (eccofs) to complement wcofs in future ncep operations and achieve complete forecast coverage of U.S. Marine territorial seas adjacent to the 48 contiguous states and puerto rico. Eccofs development began (eccofs phase 1) with 2 years of funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law (BIL) during which the project team was formed, a user needs assessment guided design criteria, prototype simulations were conducted, and contact was established with NOAA staff responsible for transition to operations. The scope of work proposed here for eccofs phase 2 entails a further 3 years of effort.