Previous observational studies have substantially improved our understanding of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in the U.S. East coast, gulf of mexico, and caribbean sea over the past decades

This Cooperative Agreement award from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Cooperative Institute (Inter-Agency Funded Activities) program (CFDA 11.405) will fund high-resolution regional ocean modeling and analysis of future changes in ocean biogeochemistry and circulation patterns in the U.S. East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. The total award amount is $1,288,162 over a performance period from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2027. The award will support modeling using the GFDL-MOM6 ocean model at 1/12th degree (approximately 8 km) resolution to downscale CMIP6 climate projections and explore future changes in ocean conditions. The modeling outputs will help bridge observational gaps and improve understanding of ecosystem and ocean circulation changes, providing valuable datasets for the fisheries research community and marine resource managers.

These studies have included the characterization of pertinent spatiotemporal patterns of ocean circulations and biogeochemistry, encompassing carbonate chemistry, nutrient cycling, dissolved oxygen, and the impacts of river runoff. The carbonate chemistry and ocean ecosystem are intricately intertwined with ocean environments, such as ocean circulation, temperature, and salinity. However, the availability of observational datasets is limited in terms of spatiotemporal coverage to explore decadal to multidecadal changes and future projections of biogeochemistry and ocean circulations in the U.S. East coast and gulf of mexico. In addition, existing earth system models still face significant uncertainties due to limitations in representing the fine-scale structure of biogeochemical, ocean circulation, and thermohaline spatiotemporal structures in these regions. Therefore, high-resolution ocean biogeochemical (BGC) models can play a crucial role in bridging existing observational gaps, offering a framework for attributing historical biogeochemical patterns and ocean circulations at multiple timescales and making future projections. In this proposal, to explore future changes in the ocean biogeochemical and ocean circulation, we will carry out downscaled high-resolution regional ocean model simulations using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratorys modular ocean MODEL6 (MOM6-cobalt-NWA12 V1.0), which has a horizontal resolution of 1/12 (~ 8KM). The main goals of this proposal are (1) to downscale future projections of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) using the high-resolution MOM6-cobalt-NWA12 model; and (2) to explore future changes in biogeochemical patterns, ocean circulations and thermohaline structure over the northwestern atlantic ocean derived from the high-resolution regional gfdl-MOM6 outputs. The proposed work will contribute to the noaas climate, ecosystems, and fisheries initiative (CEFI), and thus to better understanding of ecosystem and ocean circulation changes, providing valuable datasets for the fisheries research community and marine resources managers.