This project aims to provide quantitative information regarding potential impacts of fires to augment ongoing impact-based decision support services within the national weather service (NWS)

This Cooperative Agreement, awarded by the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), aims to provide quantitative information on the potential impacts of fires to augment the National Weather Service's (NWS) impact-based decision support services. The $906,945.00 award, with a period of performance from Aug 1, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026, will be used by the University of Oklahoma to build statistical relationships between historical NWS forecasts and observed wildfire occurrence. Additional relationships between fire occurrence and needed suppression resources and costs will also be developed. These relationships will power a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic distributions of potential fire starts and corresponding resource needs, which will be made available through an interactive web tool for emergency managers and fire managers. This award falls under NOAA's Cooperative Institute (Inter-Agency Funded Activities) program (CFDA 11.405), which facilitates cooperation between government, university, and nonprofit research institutions to increase the effectiveness of research and develop innovative approaches to environmental science education.

This will be achieved by building statistical relationships between historical NWS forecasts and observed wildfire occurrence. Once these initial relationships are established, additional statistical relationships between fire occurrence and needed suppression resources and costs will be developed. These relationships will power a markov chain monte carlo (MCMC) simulation to develop probabilistic distributions of potential fire starts and corresponding resource needs to suppress potential fires. These distributions will provide emergency managers and fire managers with crucial information regarding the potential costs associated with fire suppression on a given day. An interactive web tool will be developed to allow partners to interrogate this information in a timely manner. This tool will be TE