In 2021, the most deadly and damaging weather phenomenon to occur was flash flooding, which caused 135 deaths and more than 2.4 million dollars worth of damage (summary of natural hazard statistics…

In 2021, the most deadly and damaging weather phenomenon to occur was flash flooding, which caused 135 deaths and more than 2.4 million dollars worth of damage (summary of natural hazard statistics for 2021 in the united states, 2022). However, due to a warming climate, the impacts of extreme rainfall events are ever changing. The national weather service (NWS) weather prediction center (WPC) uses quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) to produce a number of operational products to protect lives and property during heavy rain events. For short term to medium range flash flood forecasts the WPC publishes two well-known products: the mesoscale precipitation discussion for short term (0 - 6 hours) flash flood forecasts and the excessive rainfall outlook for flash flood impacts out to three days. These products are informed using both QPF and probabilistic QPF (PQPF), but uncertainty remains in many aspects of the forecast and its characteristics. To produce accurate forecasts, IT is I