In 2018, the two primary chinook salmon stocks targeted by fisheries in california, sacramento river fall chinook and klamath river fall chinook, were designated as overfished after consecutive low…

The University of California San Diego, through its Scripps Institution of Oceanography division, was awarded a $259,996 cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to evaluate ocean demographic parameters and salmon stock forecasts. Funded through NOAA's $11.4 million Sea Grant Support program, the two-year project will develop hierarchical models integrating cohort data across California salmon stocks. Researchers will reconstruct past cohorts, estimate natural mortality and maturation rates, and evaluate two Sacramento River fall Chinook salmon forecast models. Findings aim to determine if vital rates have changed for overfished Sacramento River and Klamath River fall Chinook stocks. The University will perform the work, with administration and disbursement support provided by the California State Controller's Office.

Activities

The proposal includes developing a hierarchical model that will integrate cohort data across stocks, evaluating the performance of two alternative sacramento river fall chinook forecast models, and conducting a value of information analysis on collecting age structure data for forecasting. The project aims to reconstruct past cohorts by combining information from multiple california salmon stocks to enable estimation of natural mortality and maturation, in order to determine whether vital rates of sacramento