Seismic hazard models to earthquake shaking for construction and next generation forecasts for rapid global earthquake response (safer project)project period: 2 23 2026 through 9 30 2026AWARD purpose:…

The U.S. Geological Survey Office of Acquisitions and Grants awarded Fondazione GEM a cooperative agreement of $342,709.29 on February 23, 2026, under the U.S. Geological Survey Research and Data Collection program (CFDA 15.808).

The award funds the SAFER Project (Seismic Hazard Models to Earthquake Shaking for Construction and Next Generation Forecasts for Rapid Global Earthquake Response), which integrates Global Earthquake Model (GEM) exposure, vulnerability, and fragility data into the USGS rapid loss workflow to produce multi-metric impact assessments including damage, casualties, losses, and displacement. Work includes hindcasting and calibrating retrospective events using ShakeMaps, rupture models, and observed loss data; implementing the latest USA seismic risk model in the OpenQuake Engine for reproducible testing; and disseminating the International Macroseismic Scale through a GEM-hosted webpage and training workshop. The award also funds a Latin America workshop on translating hazard outputs into code-ready seismic design actions and a pilot study in Uganda testing risk-informed seismic design approaches transferable to U.S. practice.

Deliverables include an expanded rapid impact workflow with multi-metric outputs and documented uncertainty; retrospective calibration results identifying bias and improvements; USA risk model implementation in OpenQuake; International Macroseismic Scale webpage and training materials; Latin America workshop materials and report; Uganda pilot study report; and a final technical report with consolidated project outputs.

Performance location is Italy. The period of performance runs from February 23, 2026, through September 30, 2026.

Activities

Sub-activity 1 (twopager IMS) integrate GEM exposure vulnerability fragility into the USGS rapid loss workflow to produce additional impact metrics (damage, casualties, losses, displacement). Hindcast and calibrate using retrospective events (shakemaps ruptures observed loss damage sources). Implement latest USA seismic risk model in openquake engine for reproducible testing. Disseminate test the international macroseismic scale (IMS): GEM-hosted webpage training workshop.sub-activity 2 (design actions) deliver a latin america workshop on translating hazard outputs into code-ready seismic actions using usgsgem methods tools. Pilot risk-informed seismic design actions in uganda to test approaches transferable to broader settings (including U.S. Practice).deliverables and expected outcomes: expanded rapid impact workflow with multi-metric outputs and documented uncertainty sensitivity where feasible. Retrospective calibration dataset evaluation results identifying bias and improvements. USA risk model implemented in openquake engine. IMS webpage IMS training workshop materials report. Latin america workshop materials report. Uganda pilot study report on risk-informed design actions. Final technical report project webpage consolidating outputs.

Intended beneficiaries

USGS EHP science and operational teams U.S. Emergency managers and responders. U.S. Engineering code stakeholders U.S. Agencies applying U.S. Code concepts internationally. Latin america code-modernization stakeholders uganda national counterparts broader global risk community.

Subrecipient activities

No subrecipients anticipated