Developing new models for forecasting the spread of species and fireperiod of performance:09 25 2025 - 12 31 2027ABSTRACT summary: the objectives of this project are to: (1) develop hidden markov…

Colorado State University's Sponsored Programs division received a $180,000 Cooperative Agreement from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Office of Acquisitions and Grants under the Cooperative Research Units program (CFDA 15.812) effective September 25, 2025 through December 31, 2027. The project develops advanced statistical and computational models to forecast the spread of wildfires in the Southwest and the geographic expansion of invasive species. Deliverables include the creation of Hidden Markov Models for fire spread prediction based on historical fire patterns and remote sensing data, multistate presence-absence models for invasive species distribution forecasting, and associated computing tools that incorporate remotely sensed and environmental datasets to support early-stage monitoring and management decision-making.

The project will produce annual and final reports submitted to USGS, at least three peer-reviewed manuscripts for scientific journals, and operational modeling tools for federal and state resource management agencies. Primary beneficiaries include the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, and state fish and wildlife agencies. Project activities encompass statistical model development, software tool creation, data assembly and analysis, and limited fieldwork to support applied research and graduate education objectives consistent with the Cooperative Research Units program mandate.

Developing new models for forecasting the spread of species and fireperiod of performance:09 25 2025 - 12 31 2027ABSTRACT summary: the objectives of this project are to: (1) develop hidden markov models to forecast the spread of fires in the southwest, based on previous fire patterns and remote sensed data, to better understand spatial variation in fire risk and how this risk can be mitigated and (2) to develop multistate presence absence models to forecast future spread of invasive species and produce a tool to use available information to inform future monitoring and management and increase learning during early stages of invasions. Activities to be performed these will include the development of new statistical and system models for forecasting the spread of fire or invasive species, the development of computing tools to implement these models, the assembly and use of remotely sensed and other environmental data sets in these models, and possibly a limited amount of fieldwork. Deliverables and expected outcomes annual reports and a final report to USGS, and at least three manuscripts to be submitted to scientific journals, along with any modeling tools that are developed. Intended beneficiary(IES) U. S. Fish and wildlife service, U. S. Forest service, national park service, state fish and wildlife agencies.