Award purpose. This project aims to uncover the main transmission routes of hpai to spread between and within commercial poultry farms

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service awarded a Cooperative Agreement to North Carolina State University for $1,299,434 on February 2, 2026, under the Plant and Animal Disease, Pest Control, and Animal Care program (CFDA 10.025).

The recipient will develop mathematical models of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) transmission dynamics in commercial poultry operations, using real population data from large poultry-producing states. The project reconstructs HPAI introduction and dissemination pathways at farm and barn levels, integrating biosecurity and ventilation system data from the Rapid Access Biosecurity Application (RABAPP) database maintained by the university. Deliverables include quantified transmission routes at multiple operational scales and by state and production type; feasibility assessments of HPAI control and eradication strategies; and quantitative evaluations of barn ventilation systems as biocontainment controls. The work will produce data-driven HPAI transmission models to inform biosecurity and response strategies and protect U.S. poultry industry continuity.

Performance occurs in Raleigh, North Carolina, with a period of performance from February 2, 2026, through February 1, 2028.

Activities

We propose to simulate the dynamics driving the hpai outbreaks, considering data from recent outbreaks. We will utilize the population data of large commercial poultry-producing states, considering major within and between-farm transmission routes. Our objectives are to: 1) develop mathematical models utilizing real poultry population dynamics data at multiple levels: I) farm and II) barn across multiple states. 2) quantify the contribution of individual transmission routes at the farm and barn levels, by state and production types. 3) investigate the feasibility of hpai control and eradication strategies at the farm and barn levels. 4) quantitative assessments for the performance of barn ventilation systems as an alternative biocontainment control strategy, along with biosecurity, to reduce the spread of hpai. Deliverables and expected outcomes: this project will deliver data-driven hpai transmission models. IT reveals the role of differences between and within-farm alternative pathways of hpai transmission. This project is expected to lead to new recommendations for hpai control strategies and enhanced protection of the U.S. Poultry business continuity by minimizing industry disruption before, during, and after hpai outbreaks. We will deliver a peer-reviewed publication and develop recommendations consistent with USDA goals, while working in collaboration with the USDA to ensure the outcomes of this study are effectively utilized.

Intended beneficiaries

Animal health departments, poultry veterinarians, and poultry producers and consumers.

Subrecipient activities

A subaward for GPS tracking of trucks and trailers.