The purpose of this grant with applied research associates, INC (ARA) is to develop maps of future condition design wind speeds for buildings and infrastructure, for incorporation into building…

This Cooperative Agreement award from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) under the Measurement and Engineering Research and Standards Federal Grant Program (CFDA 11.609) provides $249,952 to Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA) to develop maps of future condition design wind speeds for buildings and infrastructure. The project aims to assess future wind conditions under a changing climate for hurricane and non-hurricane extreme winds, and incorporate the findings into the ASCE 7 building design standard. ARA will use future climate projections to estimate hurricane and non-hurricane wind speeds, and combine these probabilistically to produce future condition wind speed factor maps. ARA will collaborate with subrecipient RWDI USA LLC, who will evaluate extreme non-hurricane wind speeds. The resulting future condition wind speed maps are intended to be incorporated into the 2028 edition of the ASCE 7 standard, enabling buildings to be designed for current and future wind hazards.

Activities

Future wind conditions under a changing climate will be assessed for hurricane and non-hurricane (i.e., thunderstorm and extratropical cyclone) extreme winds. Hurricane winds will be estimated using existing simulation techniques but replacing model parameters based on historical climate with parameters based on environmental outputs from general circulation models (GCM) associated with future scenarios. Non-hurricane winds in future scenarios will be estimated from analysis of existing publicly available climate projections. These estimates of hurricane and non-hurricane induced wind speeds in a future climate 3?c warmer than the pre-industrial baseline will be combined probabilistically and compared to current design speeds in asce 7-22 to produce ratios of future and current wind speeds. These ratios will be used to create future condition wind speed factor maps.

Expected outcomes

The results of this research will include the first estimations of changes to U.S. Design-level wind speeds under future climate scenarios. The future condition wind speed factor maps will be proposed for incorporation into the 2028 edition of the asce 7 standard for minimum design loads on buildings and other structures, in the new chapter on future condition loads.

Intended beneficiaries

As the planet warms, IT is creating changes in frequency, intensity and locations of windstorms, with significant implications for the required wind resistance of buildings and infrastructure. This project will enhance our understanding of these changes and lead to modifications to current building standards and codes. Buildings designed and constructed following the adoption of the asce 7-28 wind climate provisions will be ready for the wind hazards of today and the wind hazards 50+ years from now, benefitting the general public. NIST?s active involvement in the research will keep our staff informed on the latest climate science for future storms and corresponding predicted changes in extreme wind frequency, intensity and spatial distribution.

Subrecipient activities

The subrecipient rwdi will use future climate projections to evaluate extreme wind speeds for non-hurricane winds, specifically thunderstorm winds and extratropical (synoptic) winds. These results will be used as inputs to the future condition wind speed factor maps.