One of the most promising evidence-based approaches to targeted and preventative intervention for gun violence is focused deterrence (FD), which is part of the project safe neighborhoods (PSN) suite…

The National Institute of Justice awarded The Pennsylvania State University a $1,392,265 cooperative agreement under the Research, Evaluation, and Development Project Grants program (CFDA 16.560) from January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2027. The university will partner with the Tampa Police Department, United States Attorney's Office for the Middle District of Florida, and Safe & Sound Hillsborough to conduct a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of focused deterrence interventions in reducing gun violence. Specifically, the study aims to estimate the marginal treatment effect of enhanced enforcement sanctions above service provisions alone, quantify heterogeneity in treatment effects across program types and target groups, and survey participants to better understand how subjective beliefs about risk, costs, rewards, and procedural justice affect program outcomes. Insights from this research seek to inform the development of more efficient and effective focused deterrence strategies to combat rising violence and gun crime in Tampa.

One of the most promising evidence-based approaches to targeted and preventative intervention for gun violence is focused deterrence (FD), which is part of the project safe neighborhoods (PSN) suite of community- and policing-based violence prevention initiatives. Though evaluations of FD initiatives generally find positive violence reduction effects, there remain several conspicuous gaps in our understanding of the generalizability of FD, and the mechanisms underlying the program, which prevent US from more fully maximizing its potential utility for crime reduction. First, the marginal effect of costly enhanced enforcement and sanction options in FD programs, above and beyond programs with only service provisions, is unclear. Second, heterogeneity in program treatment effects due to either variation in type of intervention or type of targeted individuals is not well quantified. Third, the nature of most FD evaluations, which concentrate on estimation of the overall program treatment effect, preclude a deeper understating of mechanisms in play which explain 'why' the intervention is effective. To address these issues, this study will provide new scholarly and policy-relevant evidence on the effectiveness of FD interventions across contexts and different manifestations, and the mechanisms underlying the effects, for the goal of developing more efficient and effective interventions. The study will work in partnership with the tampa police department (TPD), the united states attorney's office (USAO), and safe & sound hillsborough (S & S), our law enforcement, prosecutorial, and community-service provider partners, respectively, to undertake the three elements of FD: (1) identifying prolific violent offenders, (2) communicating and implementing enhanced enforcement and sanctions, if necessary, and (3) offering and providing social services in the community to all participants, if desired. By conducting a randomized control trial assigning different interventions, we seek to a) estimate a marginal treatment effect of enhanced enforcement and sanctions above and beyond a treatment effect that is due to service provisions only, and provide benefit-cost analysis for these different options, B) quantify heterogeneity in treatment effects across program type and target group, and C) conduct a survey to better understand how subjective beliefs about risk, costs, rewards and procedural justice are affected by such interventions to better understand underlying mechanisms of effectiveness. Moreover, the study will also build upon recent evaluation studies conducted with the TPD and pasco county (FL) sheriff's office on the mechanisms and effects associated with FD and PSN initiatives, to address these questions and combat the rise in violence and gun crime in tampa. Note: this project contains a research and/or development component, as defined in applicable law,"" and complies with part 200 uniform requirements - 2 CFR 200.210(a)(14). CA/NCF