How has snow cover changed over the past 50 years and how will IT change in the future? Will there be fewer days of snow cover? Will there be mid-winter melt events? Will the snow disappear earlier in…

This federal contract award to Oregon State University (OSU), a public land-grant research university, supports the development of new metrics for monitoring snow cover trends and impacts in a warming climate. The $460,348.18 grant, awarded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), aims to create a suite of leading and lagging snow indicators to serve as climate change metrics for the National Climate Assessment. The project will leverage remote sensing, in-situ, and climate model data to quantify variability and trends in snow cover frequency, snow disappearance dates, and other key metrics across regions and watersheds. The findings will be communicated to relevant stakeholders through interactive visualizations and educational resources. This contract is not designated as a set-aside and represents the expertise of OSU and its parent organization, the Oregon University System, in climate science, environmental monitoring, and stakeholder engagement across federal agencies.

How has snow cover changed over the past 50 years and how will IT change in the future? Will there be fewer days of snow cover? Will there be mid-winter melt events? Will the snow disappear earlier in spring? Will IT be too warm for SKI resorts to make snow? Where will snowfall be most dependable and where will IT be most at risk of shifting to rain? These questions motivate our development of new metrics for snow in a warming world and an evaluation of past and future trends. Snowcover variability affects multiple sectors from water, energy, and forest management to transportation planning to winter tourism. Unanticipated trends in snow duration, extent, and water equivalent foster economic and management uncertainties. Traditional snow monitoring has focused on ground-based measurements from stations whose spatial distributions are sparse and not necessarily representative of snowcover. Though these networks remain valuable, they do not provide adequate spatial coverage, representative characterization, bias-free trend information, and prognostic capabilities needed by stakeholders today. To support the goals and needs of current stakeholders as well as the national climate assessment process, we propose the following specific objectives. We will: 1. Create a suite of leading and lagging snow metrics, to serve as sensitive climate indicators in future national climate assessments, addressing the needs key sectors and stakeholder groups; 2. Quantify and assess variability and potential trends in each metric, including measures of uncertainty; 3. Engage with relevant stakeholders through regular communications, interactive infographics, webinars, educational opportunities. To achieve objective #1, our project team will leverage existing data sets, our demonstrated experience in developing snow metrics, and our ongoing engagement with an extensive stakeholder network to create this valuable suite of climate indicators. The specific snow metrics include snow cover frequency (SCF), snow disappearance date, (SDD) the ratio of snow water equivalent to total winter precipitation (SWE/P), the ratio of winter snowfall to total winter precipitation (SFE/P), snowstorm temperature, the frequency of warm winters (FWW), and at-risk snow. In developing these new snow metrics, we will use a novel combination of remote sensing, in situ, and hydroclimatic model output including the NASA/modis snow products, snow data from station networks (SNOTEL), and model output (NASA earth exchange downscaled climate projections and the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model). Selected metrics will look retrospectively (lagged indicators) and prognostically (leading indicators). To achieve objective #2, we will analyze the snow metrics to characterize uncertainty and trends. Particular attention will be paid to assessing trends for selected watersheds (e.g. columbia, upper colorado), specified locations (e.g. SKI resorts), and geographic regions (e.g. pacific northwest, northeast, midwest). To achieve objective #3, we will leverage existing strong relationships with regional and national stakeholder groups engaging with them using meetings and other venues already planned. Regularly communicating with our stakeholder groups will help drive products and outcomes. We will develop meaningful infographics to show the spatial and temporal variability of the various snow metrics including related trends and uncertainty information. Here, we will expand on a stakeholder-tested interactive web-based visualization tool that will display mapped quantities, trends, and relevant infographics in an easy to use interface that will also allow stakeholders to link to the data and metadata. This project will also develop educational resources for managers, educators, and scientists. These resources include webinars and educational modules for K-12 and undergraduate educators. This project will also support a graduate student for 3 years.