Conservation management for salmonids (trout + salmon) as for other taxa often requires decisions on the allocation of scarce resources. These decisions are typically supported by spatial…

Conservation management for salmonids (trout + salmon) as for other taxa often requires decisions on the allocation of scarce resources. These decisions are typically supported by spatial prioritization schemes that seek to identify those populations with the highest chance of persistence under current conditions, and often under future climate change scenarios as well. However, actual persistence (i.e., population viability over a defined time frame) is rarely estimated directly, due to methodological and data limitations. We propose to use new modeling approaches and novel high resolution stream and air temperature datasets coupled with NASA climate data and imagery to estimate population viability, genetic diversity and other key population characteristics of cutthroat trout (oncorhynchus clarkii), redband trout (oncorhynchus mykiss), bull trout (salvelinus confluentus), and possibly other salmonid species in large areas of the interior western united states at spatial resolutions relevant to on-the-ground management. These estimates will be driven by empirical in situ data on trout abundance and genetics assembled from state, federal, and academic partners, as well as crowdsourced presence/absence observations from trout unlimited members. The fundamental goal of our project is to model population viability and genetic diversity simultaneously across populations as a function of covariates such as habitat size, stream temperature, stream flows and net primary productivity derived from NASA landsat and modis imagery and other sources. Stream temperature models and refined flow projections, coupled with downscaled climate models, will allow US to incorporate predicted climate change into population viability and genetic diversity estimates. Once relationships between spatiotemporal covariates and population viability/genetic diversity are established, we can make projections of these population parameters across large landscapes and under climate change scenarios. We can also evaluate proposed management actions, such as riparian restoration, barrier removal, flow augmentation and assisted migration. We will work with managers throughout the course of the project to tie the modeling system into conservation planning decision support systems. These will include trout unlimited s own conservation planning framework, forest service prioritization and planning efforts, and other conservation planning systems used by the US fish and wildlife service and the bureau of land management.