Federal Project Grant Award Summary

Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH), a Harvard Medical School-affiliated academic medical center, received a $330,000 Project Grant award from the National Institute on Drug Abuse under the Drug Use and Addiction Research Programs (CFDA 93.279) on March 15, 2026, for completion by February 29, 2028. The grant funds a machine learning-driven research initiative titled "Uncovering Patterns in the Evolving Drug Supply to Detect Emerging Overdose Trends Using Machine Learning." This project addresses the escalating overdose crisis by developing advanced analytical capabilities to identify spatiotemporal change points in illicit drug supply composition and their correlation with overdose mortality trends.

The research delivers two primary products. First, MGH will apply machine learning models including Gaussian process subset scanning and spatial-temporal outlier detection methods to analyze National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS-Drug) data from 2013 to 2026, detecting significant shifts in the prevalence of key substances such as fentanyl, heroin, stimulants, xylazine, and novel synthetic benzodiazepines and their combinations. Second, the project will integrate these findings with county-level overdose mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to systematically evaluate how drug supply changes influence overdose fatalities across geographic and temporal dimensions. These analytical deliverables are intended to support evidence-based public health resource allocation for overdose prevention and harm reduction programs.