Attachment_B_Scenario-Inbound.pdf

Attachment B

SCENARIO

Disaster Size and the Impact on Inbound Mail Operations

General The purpose of this document is to provide information about the impact of disaster sizes on the inbound mail operations. This information is based on historical data extracted from several years. However, it is important to note that the number of disasters and the intensity of disaster activities vary from year to year.

The offeror shall reference this historical scenario before submitting a proposal. The offeror shall address all three assumptions within this scenario in his or her proposal to indicate the technical approach and understanding of work to be performed.

In 2012 there were 16 declared disasters that impacted the inbound mail production. The table below categorizes the historical sizes of the disasters and the frequencies of the sizes.

Estimated Number of

Registrations in a Disaster

Disaster Size Classification

Percentage per year (Based on 2008 historical data.)

Number of Disasters

5k or less Very small 50% 8 5-15k Small 25% 4 15-25k Medium 0% 0 25-100k Large 6% 1 100k or greater Very large 19% 3 Total 100% 16

Background

After a disaster declaration, disaster victims register for assistance either via the web or by phone.

Beginning approximately three weeks after the disaster declaration, applicants begin to forward correspondence / documentation to FEMA, thus increasing the inbound mail activity.

Although very large disasters are relatively low, multiple disasters can easily reach a volume of greater than 100,000, and may occur in a relatively short period of time. Between August 29, 2012 and October 30, 2012, five disasters were declared. The total impact of these five disasters was 773,079 registrations. These multiple disaster occurrences had a significant impact on incoming mail volume.

Most typically hurricane season is the most active disaster period of the year, but earthquakes, wildfires and other natural and manmade disasters can occur at any time during the year.

Incoming Mail

Historical trends indicate that incoming mail is not greatly impacted by the disaster until the third week after the disaster declaration. Generally, for every 1 registration, approximately 3 inbound correspondences result. These letters vary in length, but the average is six pages. Below are examples of the weekly incoming correspondence via mail and fax/eCorrespondence and the number of images (pages) that the mail contractor would be required to review and/or scan, and import to FEMA in accordance with the Statement of Work.

Example

Assume a disaster of 15,000 registrations. The following indicates the number of registrations by week and the forecast of incoming correspondence / images by week.

Note: Historical trends indicate 25% received by mail and 75% received by fax/eCorrespondence.

Week of the Disaster

Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Forecast of Weekly

Incoming correspondence

(RI*3)

Letter Images by week - total (estimate 6 images per letter)

Mail (25% of total)

Fax/ eCorrespond ence (75% of total)

1st week 30% 4,500 2nd week 21% 3,150 3rd week 16% 2,400 13,500 81,000 20,250 60,750 4th week 11% 1,650 9,450 56,700 14,175 42,525 5th-8th week 22% 3,300 7,200 43,200 10,800 32,400 9th 4,950 29,700 7,425 22,275 10th 9,900 59,400 14,850 44,550

Total 100% 15,000 45,000 270,000 67,500 202,500

Assume a disaster of 50,000 registrations

Week of the Disaster

Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Forecast of Weekly

Incoming correspondence

(RI*3)

Letter Images by week - total (estimate 6 pages per letter)

Mail (25% of total)

Fax/ eCorrespond ence (75% of total)

1st week 30% 15,000 2nd week 21% 10,500 3rd week 16% 8,000 45,000 270,000 67,500 202,500 4th week 11% 5,500 31,500 189,000 47,250 141,750 5th-8th week 22% 11,000 24,000 144,000 36,000 108,000 9th 16,500 99,000 24,750 74,250 10th 33,000 198,000 49,500 148,500

Total 100% 50,000 150,000 900,000 225,000 675,000

Assume a disaster of 1,000,000 registrations

Week of the Disaster

Percent of Applications Forecasted

Number of Registrations

Expected

Forecast of Weekly

Incoming correspondence

(RI*3)

Letter Images by week - total (estimate 6 pages per letter)

Mail (25% of total)

Fax/ eCorrespond ence (75% of total)

1st week 30% 300,000 2nd week 21% 210,000 3rd week 16% 160,000 900,000 5,400,000 1,350,000 4,050,000 4th week 11% 110,000 630,000 3,780,000 945,000 2,835,000

5th-8th week 22% 220,000 480,000 2,880,000 720,000 2,160,000 9th 330,000 1,980,000 495,000 1,485,000 10th 660,000 3,960,000 990,000 2,970,000

Total 100% 1,000,000 3,000,000 18,000,000 4,500,000 13,500,000

In addition to the correspondence from applicants, a significant amount of outbound mail may not reach applicants. This mail is returned to FEMA and the mail contractor shall also process these documents.

In 2012 there were 1,448,716 letters mailed. There were 57,476 pieces of returned mail. This is approximately a 4% return rate.

Inbound correspondence that requires translation also impacts inbound mail. The table below indicates translations completed from September through December 2011 - multiple declarations affecting geographic populations where English was not the primary language.

Note: Documents requiring translation increased dramatically from a few hundred to several thousands in a very short period of time.

Number of Translations completed

Week of 8/28 76 Week of 9/4 252 Week of 9/11 718 Week of 9/18 1,413 Week of 9/25 2,262 Week of 10/02 3,088 Week of 10/9 2,407 Week of 10/16 2,136 Week of 10/23 1,916 Week of 10/30 2,804 Week of 11/6 2,469 Week of 11/13 1,731 Week of 11/20 1,098 Week of 11/27 1,464 Week of 12/4 1,060 Week of 12/11 915 Week of 12/18 731 Week of 12/25 561

Total 27,101