Exhibit_A_-_Appraisal.pdf
PDF 7 MB Posted
- Solicitation number
- 2027-RFP-00078
- Issued by
- San Mateo County, California
About this file
This appraisal report prepared by Valbridge Property Advisors for the County of San Mateo evaluates the market value of the San Mateo County Law Library property located at 710 Hamilton Street in Redwood City, California. The subject property comprises 0.47 acres (20,500 square feet) currently improved with a two-story concrete block building containing 12,764 gross square feet, constructed in 1960 and operated as a public law library with County Assessor office space. The appraisal, dated July 22, 2026 with an effective valuation date of July 6, 2026, was commissioned to assist the County in establishing value for potential disposition of the property. The site is located at the corner of Hamilton and Winslow Streets in downtown Redwood City, zoned as Planned Community Downtown Precise Plan (P), with a General Plan designation of Downtown Mixed Use permitting office, multifamily residential, senior/assisted living, lodging, and other commercial uses. The property contains 33 on-site parking spaces.
The appraisal concludes a market value of $5,330,000 for the fee simple interest, representing $260 per square foot of site area and $417.58 per square foot of building area. The appraiser determined that the existing building improvements contribute minimal value beyond the underlying land, as the property's highest and best use is demolition and redevelopment as mixed-use development including commercial and multifamily housing, consistent with the Downtown Precise Plan's objectives and current neighborhood trends. The analysis involved a sales comparison approach using comparable office property transactions and land market research, with the property positioned to attract developers focused on redevelopment potential rather than continued office use. The surrounding San Mateo County market demonstrates strong demand for mixed-use and multifamily development, particularly affordable housing projects, with limited new supply and favorable demographic trends supporting feasibility of higher-density residential development on this infill site.
View the file
Other files
Show all 22
On GovTribe
Work with this file
- Download the original file
- Contacts named in this file
- Similar government files
- Ask GovTribe AI about this file
Text version
Appraisal Report
San Mateo County Law Library 710 Hamilton Street
Redwood City, San Mateo County, California 94063
Report Date: July 22, 2026
FOR:
Michele King County of San Mateo
500 County Center Redwood City, CA 94063
Valbridge Property Advisors |
Northern California
1530 The Alameda, Suite 100 San Jose, CA 95126
408.279.1520 phone Valbridge File Number:
408.279.3428 fax CA02-26-0346-001 valbridge.com
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
1530 The Alameda, Suite 100
San Jose, CA 95126
408.279.1520 phone
408.279.3428 fax valbridge.com
July 22, 2026
Maria Aji, PhD
408.279.1520 ext. 7120 maji@valbridge.com
County of San Mateo
500 County Center
Redwood City, CA 94063
RE: Appraisal Report
San Mateo County Law Library
710 Hamilton Street
Redwood City, San Mateo County, California 94063
Dear Ms. King:
In accordance with your request, an appraisal of the above-referenced property was completed. This appraisal report sets forth the pertinent data gathered, the techniques employed, and the reasoning leading to the value opinions. This letter of transmittal does not constitute an appraisal report and the rationale behind the value opinion(s) reported cannot be adequately understood without the accompanying appraisal report.
The subject property, as referenced above, is located at 710 Hamilton Street, Redwood City, CA 94063 and is further identified as Assessor Parcel Number (APN) 052-364-110. The subject site is a 0.47-acre or 20,500-square-foot parcel. The site is improved with a two-story single-tenant civic building originally constructed circa 1960. The building is of concrete block construction with wood frames and contains 12,764 gross square feet of building area. The improvements are owned by the County of San
Mateo.
The first floor encompasses the full building footprint and is occupied by a public law library, which includes open library space, private offices, and one restroom. It features high ceilings throughout, owing to the partial nature of the upper level. The second floor is built as mezzanine space over approximately one-third of the first-floor footprint and the space overlooks onto the ground floor space. The second-floor space consists of enclosed office areas connected via a hallway and is occupied by the County Assessor's Office with the rest of the space used as library storage and office area. There are 33 parking spaces on site for a parking ratio of 2.59 spaces per 1,000 square feet of building area.
County of San Mateo
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
The analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report was prepared in conformity with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) of the Appraisal Foundation;
the Code of Professional Ethics and Standards of Professional Practice of the Appraisal Institute; and the requirements of our client.
The client in this assignment is the County of San Mateo and the intended user of this report is the
County of San Mateo, Real Property Services Division and no others. The intended use is to assist the client in establishing the value for potential disposition of the subject property. The value opinions reported herein are subject to the definitions, assumptions, limiting conditions, and certifications contained in this report.
The findings and conclusions are further contingent upon the following extraordinary assumptions and/or hypothetical conditions, the use of which might have affected the assignment results:
Extraordinary Assumptions:
• None
Hypothetical Conditions:
• None
The value conclusions are based on the analysis in the following report and presented in the following table:
Respectfully submitted, Valbridge Property Advisors | Northern California
Maria Aji, Ph.D.
Director
California Certified License #AG027130
Value Conclusion
Component As Is
Value Type Market Value
Real Property Interest Fee Simple
Effective Date of Value July 6, 2026
Value Conclusion $5,330,000
PSF of Site Area $260 PSF
PSF of Bldg Area $417.58 PSF
SAN MATEO COUNTY LAW LIBRARY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 4
Table of Contents
Cover Page
Letter of Transmittal
Table of Contents
Summary of Salient Facts
Aerial and Front Views
Location Map
Introduction
Scope of Work
Regional and Market Area Analysis
City and Neighborhood Analysis
Site Description
Improvements Description
Subject Photographs (Dated July 6th, 2026)
Assessment and Tax Data
Market Analysis
Highest and Best Use Analysis
Land Valuation- Sales Comparison Approach
Reconciliation
Exposure Time and Marketing Period
General Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Certification – Maria Aji, PhD
Addenda
Additional Subject Photographs (Dated July 6th, 2026)
Glossary
Qualifications
Valbridge Property Advisors Information / Office Locations
SUMMARY OF SALIENT FACTS
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 5
Summary of Salient Facts
Property Identification
Property Name San Mateo County Law Library
Property Address 710 Hamilton Street
Redwood City, San Mateo County, California 94063
Latitude & Longitude 37.487286, -122.230548
Census Tract 6102.02
Tax Parcel Number 052-364-110
Property Owner County of San Mateo, a political subdivision of the State of
California
Site
Zoning Planned Community Downtown Precise Plan (P)
FEMA Flood Map No. 06081C0301F
Flood Zone X
Gross Land Area 0.471 acres
Usable Land Area 0.471 acres
Existing Improvements
Property Use Public Library
Occupancy 100% Government
Gross Building Area (GBA) 12,764 sf
Net Rentable Area (NRA) 12,764 sf
Number of Units 1
Number of Buildings 1
Number of Stories 2
Year Built 1960
Condition Average
Construction Class C - Concrete Block
Construction Quality Average
Surface Parking 33 spaces
Valuation Opinions
Highest & Best Use - As Vacant Mixed-use, including commercial and multifamily development.
Highest & Best Use - As Improved Future Redevelopment
Reasonable Exposure Time Up to six months
Reasonable Marketing Time Up to six months
SUMMARY OF SALIENT FACTS
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 6
Value Conclusion
Component As Is
Value Type Market Value
Real Property Interest Fee Simple
Effective Date of Value July 6, 2026
Value Conclusion $5,330,000
PSF of Site Area $260 PSF
PSF of Bldg Area $417.58 PSF
AERIAL AND FRONT VIEWS
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 7
Aerial and Front Views
AERIAL VIEW
FRONT VIEW (DATED JULY 6TH, 2026)
LOCATION MAP
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 8
Location Map
INTRODUCTION
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 9
Introduction
Client and Intended Users of the Appraisal The client in this assignment is Michele King with the County of San Mateo and the intended user of this report is the County of San Mateo, Real Property Services Division. Under no circumstances shall any of the following parties be entitled to use or rely on the appraisal or this appraisal report:
i. The borrower(s) on any loans or financing relating to or secured by the subject property,
ii. Any guarantor(s) of such loans or financing; or
iii. Principals, shareholders, investors, members or partners in such borrower(s) or guarantors.
Intended Use of the Appraisal The intended use of this report is to assist the client in establishing the value for a potential disposition of the subject property.
Real Estate Identification The subject property is located at 710 Hamilton Street, Redwood City, San Mateo County, California
94063. The property is further identified by Assessor Parcel Number (APN) 052-364-110.
Legal Description A legal description of the subject property was provided in the Preliminary Title Report for the subject prepared by the Old Republic Title Company and dated February 11, 2014. The Preliminary Title
Reports has been reproduced in the Addenda.
Use of Real Estate as of the Effective Date of Value As of the effective date of value, the subject was a public library and office property.
Use of Real Estate as Reflected in this Appraisal The current opinion of value for the subject property reflects use as redevelopment land.
Ownership of the Property According to Preliminary Title Report, title to the subject is vested in County of San Mateo, a political subdivision of the State of California.
History of the Property Ownership of the property has not changed within the past three years.
Type and Definition of Value The purpose of this appraisal is to develop an opinion of the market value of the subject property.
“Market Value,” as used in this appraisal, is defined as “The most probable price, as of a specified date, in cash, or in terms equivalent to cash, or in other precisely revealed terms, for which the specified property rights should sell after reasonable exposure in a competitive market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, with the buyer and seller each acting prudently, knowledgeably, and for self-
INTRODUCTION
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 10
interest, and assuming that neither is under undue duress.”1 Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby:
• Buyer and seller are typically motivated.
• Both parties are well informed or well advised, each acting in what they consider their own best interests;
• A reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market;
• Payment is made in terms of cash in U.S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and
• The price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sale concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.”
The “as is” value is the value of the property in its present condition under market conditions prevalent on the date of the appraisal. Please refer to the Glossary in the Addenda section for additional definitions of terms used in this report.
Valuation Scenarios, Property Rights Appraised, and Effective Dates of Value Opinions of value for the subject were developed under the following valuation scenarios:
Date of Report The date of this report is July 22, 2026.
List of Items Requested but Not Provided
• None
Assumptions and Conditions of the Appraisal This appraisal assignment and the opinions reported herein are subject to the General Assumptions and Limiting Conditions contained in the report and the following extraordinary assumptions and/or hypothetical conditions, the use of which might have affected the assignment results.
Extraordinary Assumptions
• None
Hypothetical Conditions
• None
1 THE DICTIONARY OF REAL ESTATE APPRAISAL, EIGHTH EDITION, (APPRAISAL INSTITUTE, 2026), 105
Valuation Scenario Effective Date of Value
As Is Market Value of the Fee Simple Interest July 6, 2026
SCOPE OF WORK
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 11
Scope of Work
The elements addressed in the Scope of Work are (1) the extent to which the subject is identified, (2) the extent to which the property is inspected, (3) the type and extent of data researched, (4) the type and extent of analysis applied, (5) the type of appraisal report prepared, and (6) the inclusion or exclusion of items of non-realty in the development of the value opinion. These items are discussed below.
Extent to Which the Property Was Identified The three components of the property identification are summarized as follows:
• Legal Characteristics - The subject was legally identified via Assessor Parcel Number (APN), plat map, site visit, Google Earth, public records, and client-provided information.
• Economic Characteristics - The subject’s economic characteristics were identified via information provided by our client, market data, and discussion with active market participants.
• Physical Characteristics - The subject’s physical characteristics were identified via an appraisal inspection consisting of interior and exterior observations completed by Maria Aji and Haidee
Xu of Valbridge Property Advisors..
Extent to Which the Property Was Inspected An appraisal inspection of the property was completed on July 6, 2026. The improvements were not measured during the course of the inspection.
Type and Extent of Data Researched The following data was researched and analyzed: (1) market area data, (2) property-specific market data, (3) zoning and land-use data, and (4) current data on comparable listings and transactions.
Professionals familiar with the subject market/property type were also interviewed.
This report was prepared with the assistance of full-time trainee/assistant Haidee Xu, who performed and assisted in many tasks of the report, including research and data collection, assistance in writing a market analysis, city and neighborhood analysis, and site and improvements description. The appraiser supervised and verified these steps.
Type and Extent of Analysis Applied (Valuation Methodology) Surrounding land use trends, the condition of any improvements, demand for the subject property, and relevant legal limitations were observed in the process of concluding a highest and best use for the property. The subject was then valued based on the highest and best use conclusion.
Appraisers develop an opinion of property value with specific appraisal procedures that reflect three distinct methods of data analysis: the cost approach, sales comparison approach, and income capitalization approach. One or more of these approaches are used in all estimations of value.
• Cost Approach - In the cost approach, the value indication reflects the sum of current depreciated replacement or reproduction cost, land value, and an appropriate entrepreneurial incentive or profit.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 12
• Sales Comparison Approach - In the sales comparison approach, value is indicated by recent sales and/or listings of comparable properties in the market, with the appraiser analyzing the impact of material differences in both economic and physical elements between the subject and the comparables.
• Income Capitalization Approach - In the income capitalization approach, value is indicated by the capitalization of anticipated future income. There are two types of capitalization: direct capitalization and yield capitalization, more commonly known as discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
In addition, there are four primary methods available to develop a land value estimate: (1) sales comparison, (2) land residual method, (3) ground rent capitalization, and (4) subdivision development method (discounted cash flow). While other methods, such as extraction and allocation, are applicable under limited conditions, one or more of these approaches are used in most circumstances to derive an indication of land value.
• Sales Comparison Approach - In the sales comparison approach, value is indicated by recent sales and/or listings of comparable properties in the market, with the appraiser analyzing the impact of material differences in both economic and physical elements between the subject and the comparables.
• Direct Capitalization: Land Residual Method - The land residual methodology involves estimating the residual net income to the land by deducting from total potential income the portion attributable to the improvements, assuming development of the site at its highest and best use. The residual income is capitalized at an appropriate rate, resulting in an indication of land value.
• Direct Capitalization: Ground Rent Capitalization – A market derived capitalization rate is applied to the net income resulting from a ground lease. This can represent the leased fee or fee simple interest, depending on whether the income potential is reflective of a lease in place or market rental rates.
• Yield Capitalization: Subdivision Development Method – Also known as discounted cash flow analysis (DCF), the methodology is most appropriate for land having multiple lot development in the near term as the highest and best use. The current site value is represented by discounting the anticipated cash flow to a present value, taking into consideration all necessary costs of development, maintenance, administration, and sales throughout the absorption period.
All of these approaches to value were considered. The availability of data and applicability of each approach to value within the context of the characteristics of the property, along with the needs and requirements of the client, were assessed. Based on this assessment, the sales comparison approach was developed. The specific methods and analysis of each approach are further discussed in the respective valuation sections.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 13
Appraisal Conformity and Report Type The analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed and this report was prepared in conformity with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) of the Appraisal Foundation;
the Code of Professional Ethics and Standards of Professional Practice of the Appraisal Institute; and the requirements of our client. This is an Appraisal Report as defined by the Uniform Standards of
Professional Appraisal Practice under Standards Rule 2-2a.
Personal Property/FF&E All items of non-realty are excluded from this analysis. The opinion of market value developed herein is reflective of real estate only.
REGIONAL AND MARKET AREA ANALYSIS
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 14
Regional and Market Area Analysis
REGIONAL MAP
Overview The property is located in the San Francisco Bay Region, an area which is comprised of the nine counties bordering the San Francisco Bay. According to the State of California Department of Finance, the area had a combined population of approximately 7.66 million as of January 1, 2025. The
Department of Finance characterizes the San Francisco Bay Area by a moderate climate, diversified economy and one of the highest standards of living in the United States.
San Mateo County is just south of San Francisco in the western portion of the greater region.
Geographically, the county forms a peninsula, which leads from San Francisco southward to Santa Clara
County, defining the westerly boundary of the Bay Area. The County of San Mateo, as previously mentioned, is often referred to as “The Peninsula.”
Growth along the Peninsula is constrained by its geography, including watershed and mountains. Most development in San Mateo County is therefore located along the eastern side of the Peninsula, fronting
San Francisco Bay. The central portion of the Peninsula mainly consists of the coastal mountain range, associated watershed, and fish and game refuge. The westerly portion fronts the Pacific Ocean and is agriculturally and recreationally oriented. Development to the west has been limited by transportation availability, weather, environmental concerns, and water and sewer constraints.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 15
Population San Mateo County is the Bay Area’s fourth largest county behind Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Francisco counties. According to the State of California Department of Finance, as of
January 1, 2025, the population in the county was 748,337, which is a 0.07% increase from the previous year.
According to ESRI Business projections, presented below, the county’s population is expected to increase annually by 0.27% between 2025 and 2030, while Redwood City will increase approximately
0.62% annually over the same period.
Transportation Transportation access has been and will continue to be the key to the attractiveness of San Mateo
County. Interstate 280 runs generally north/south along the ridge of the coastal mountains through the county and is known as one of the most beautiful highways in California. Highway 101 traverses the flatlands north/south near the Bay.
State Highways 84 and 92 are major east/west routes connecting the coastal communities in San
Gregorio and Half Moon Bay with the north/south highway networks. Both these routes continue over bridges across the Bay into the East Bay. Dumbarton Bridge (Highway 84) connects Palo Alto with
Fremont. Highway 92 links San Mateo and Foster City with Hayward.
Highway 1 is a north/south route which serves the coastal communities along the Pacific Ocean. State
Highway 82 is synonymous with El Camino Real, the original north/south route in the state. El Camino
Real is a major arterial, which defines most of the commercial districts in the county and generally acts as a geographic dividing line between the residential communities to the west and the commercial and industrial services and businesses to the east, adjoining the Bay.
Air, rail, and water transportation access is also very good. San Francisco International Airport (SFO), which provides scheduled airfreight and passenger services, is located in north central San Mateo
County between Millbrae and San Bruno next to the Bay. This airport is one of the busiest in the world in terms of air passenger volume, air cargo, and scheduled arrivals and departures. As of the fiscal year
2025, the airport had maintained an upward trajectory in the number of passengers served with 54 million passengers in total. Amtrak and the Union Pacific main line run in the flatlands just east of El
Camino Real. Commuter service to San Francisco to the north and San Jose to the south is provided by Caltrain, now a division of Amtrak. Both Redwood City and San Francisco have deep-water ports.
Compound
Annual ∆
Compound
Annual ∆
Area 2020 - 2025 2025 - 2030
United States 331,449,520 335,707,897 0.26% 343,238,675 0.44%
California 39,538,223 39,812,276 0.14% 40,153,869 0.17%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 4,749,008 4,813,988 0.27% 4,865,628 0.21%
San Mateo County 764,442 784,729 0.53% 795,567 0.27%
Redwood City city 84,292 86,693 0.56% 89,400 0.62%
Source: ESRI (ArcGIS)
Census
Population
(2020)
Current
Population
(2025)
Projected
(2030)
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 16
The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is a regional system of high-speed commuter trains with stations in San Francisco, San Mateo, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties. San Mateo
County has six BART stations, including an extension to the San Francisco International Airport, which features a light rail system linking the terminal complex with outlying airport facilities.
In addition to BART, San Mateo County is served by the SamTrans bus system, which operates more than 70 routes throughout San Mateo County and into parts of San Francisco and Palo Alto. As of the fiscal year 2025, SamTrans buses served more than 10.7 million passengers over a 446-square-mile area, which represents a 7.9% increase from the previous year.
For a densely settled area such as San Mateo County, traffic congestion is a critical factor for the county’s economy as well as its quality of life. The Federal Reserve of St. Louis (FRED) reports that the mean commuting time for the workforce within San Mateo County peaked at 29.4 minutes in 2020. As of 2023, the mean commuting time had fallen to approximately 27.3 minutes but continued to be slightly higher compared to Santa Clara County at 27.0 minutes. To reduce gridlock, the San Mateo
County Transportation Authority teamed with other agencies to implement the San Mateo 101 Express
Lanes Project. Completed in March 2023, the project added 22 miles of designated express lanes in each direction along Highway 101, from the San Mateo County/Santa Clara County Line to I-380 in
South San Francisco.
Employment High-technology employment and a skilled workforce translate into relatively high-income levels, and
San Mateo County is one of the most affluent metropolitan regions in the nation. Silicon Valley’s economy is stable, although its narrow range of driving industries has kept recent growth very slow.
Significant employment sectors within San Mateo County include professional, scientific, and tech services; healthcare and social assistance; and retail trade. Top employers within the county include
YouTube LLC, Genentech Inc. and SRI International, the Daly City BART station and San Francisco
International Airport, Kaiser Permanente and San Mateo Medical Center, and the County of San Mateo.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 17
Unemployment The unemployment rate in San Mateo County is currently less than the rates of the state and nation.
The County unemployment rate was 3.1% as of June 2026 (most recent available). The State of
California was at 4.7% while the Nation was at 4.4% for the same time period.
National Economic Overview The national economy remains on a path of moderate expansion, though momentum has become uneven, entering 2026. The post-COVID recovery period was characterized by elevated labor demand and wage growth, while the Federal Reserve implemented economic policies intended to control inflation and support financial market stability.
Employment by Industry for San Mateo County - Source: ESRI (ArcGIS)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Hunting
Mining/Quarrying/Oil & Gas Extraction
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation/Warehousing
Utilities
Information
Finance/Insurance
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing
Professional/Scientific/Tech Services
Management of Companies/Enterprises
Admin/Support/Waste Management Services
Educational Services
Health Care/Social Assistance
Arts/entertainment/Recreation
Accommodation/Food Services
Other Services (excl Public Administration)
Public Administration
Unemployment Rates
Area YE 2021 YE 2022 YE 2023 YE 2024 YE 2025 2026¹
United States 5.3% 3.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4%
California 7.3% 4.3% 4.7% 5.3% 5.5% 4.7%
San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA (MD) 5.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.3%
San Mateo County, CA 4.9% 2.6% 3.1% 3.7% 3.9% 3.1%
Redwood City city, CA 4.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.8% 3.0%
Source: www.bls.gov data not seasonally adjusted; ¹June - most recent for US, others lag by 1-2 mos.)
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 18
U.S. real GDP contracted by 0.5% in the First Quarter of 2025 (revised), rebounded at 3.8% and 4.4% in the Second and Third Quarters, and grew 0.5% in the Fourth Quarter, yielding full-year growth of 2.1%.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP grew at annualized rate of 2.0% in the First
Quarter of 2026. Growth was supported by investment (including AI data center buildout), exports, government spending, and consumer spending. Real GDP is expected to grow modestly over Q2-2026, with an estimated 2.0% growth. Real disposable income growth has been approximately flat, year-over-year, as inflation-adjusted wage gains have been largely offset by higher energy costs.
Inflation re-accelerated in March and April 2026, with headline CPI rising 3.3% and at 3.8% year-over-year, largely driven by a surge in gasoline prices following the Strait of Hormuz closure. Inflation accelerated further in May 2026, with headline CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year as energy prices continued to surge. Core CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year in May, up from 2.8% in April. Price pressures remain most pronounced in shelter, healthcare services, and energy.
The labor market demonstrated unexpected resilience throughout the First Quarter of 2026. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 185,000 and 115,000 jobs in March and April of this year, well above expectations, and the national unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year.
Employment subsequently increased by 172,000 jobs in May 2026. The national unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range at 4.3% to 4.5% since July 2025. Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year-over-year in May. Labor force participation rate edged down to 61.8% from 62.4% the prior year.
U.S Trade Policies
U.S. trade policy remains a source of economic uncertainty, though its near-term inflationary impact has been more subdued than initially feared as many firms had partially absorbed higher import costs, diversified supply chains, or delayed price pass-throughs to consumers.
On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA (or “International Emergency
Economic Powers Act”) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, and the administration’s reciprocal tariff framework was terminated effective February 24, 2026. A replacement Section 122 surcharge (i.e., temporary tariffs) of 15% (raised from the initial 10% rate on February 22, 2026, to the statutory maximum) on nearly all imports took effect the same day and expires by statute on July 24, 2026. Certain tariffs, such as a 50% duty on steel, aluminum, and copper imports, were unaffected by the ruling and remain in force. Trade policy uncertainty continues to weigh on business investment and supply-chain planning.
Oil Price Shock and Geopolitical Risk
The U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran, which began February 28, 2026, has severely disrupted global energy markets. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, 2026, cutting off a passage through which 20% to 25% of seaborne oil normally transits. The two nations reached a formal memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end the conflict, lift blockades of the Strait, and open a 60-day window for nuclear negotiations. Global crude oil prices peaked at approximately $138 per barrel in early April before declining significantly as markets priced in the prospective reopening; prices have since moderated to the mid-to-upper $70s per barrel range. Follow-on nuclear negotiations remain ongoing, and a breakdown in those talks could risk renewed disruption. The UAE’s departure from
OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, adds longer-term uncertainty to global oil supply dynamics.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 19
Retail gasoline prices rose nationally from approximately $2.98 per gallon before the military conflict began to a peak of approximately $4.62 per gallon in May 2026, before declining as ceasefire prospects firmed and a formal agreement was reached. The national average has moderated into the low-to-mid
$4.00 per gallon range in mid-June, though it remains meaningfully above pre-conflict levels. California prices have similarly eased but remain well above the national average. Oxford Economics projected that sustained disruption could add between 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points to inflation above prior forecasts; a durable Strait reopening would limit that impact over the near term.
Other Policy Changes
Tax and fiscal policy changes enacted in 2025 are expected to provide a tailwind for commercial and residential real estate in 2026. The extension and expansion of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, approved as part of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” includes lower corporate tax rates and elimination of taxes on tips and overtime pay.
For real estate investors and operators, the legislation provides a permanent extension and modification of the Qualified Opportunity Zone program, a permanent 20% Qualified Business Income deduction, and full deductibility of interest expenses for commercial and multifamily loans. As these measures take effect in 2026, they are expected to improve after-tax returns and transaction feasibility, supporting investment activity. However, longer-term fiscal pressures tied to higher federal deficits could remain a consideration for interest rates and capital markets.
Immigration enforcement and federal workforce reduction initiatives have introduced labor-supply constraints in key industries, including agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare. These policies may contribute to sector-specific wage pressures and limit potential output growth over the medium term.
Federal Funds Rate
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in late 2025, bringing the target range to 3.50% to
3.75% at year-end. No changes to the Federal Funds Rate were made at their January, March, and April
2026 meetings – citing the energy driven inflation spike, labor market conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Financial markets no longer anticipate rate cuts in 2026, as the May CPI reading of 4.2% and elevated energy prices have pushed rate-cut expectations off the table for the near term. Kevin Warsh, sworn in on May 22, 2026, assumed chairmanship of the board. At their most recent June 17 FOMC meeting, the Fed held the funds rate steady but signaled that its next move could be a rate increase, particularly if inflation remains persistently elevated. Future decisions will be driven by incoming data on inflation
(particularly the trajectory of energy prices and core PCE), labor markets, the ongoing Middle East conflict, and financial stability.
Inflation expectations have risen materially since the onset of the conflict; the University of Michigan’s one-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations have risen approximately one percentage point, and five-year expectations have approached 4 percent. Financial markets now price the Federal Funds Rate at approximately 4% by year-end, compared to a year-end expectation of approximately 3% prior to the Middle East conflict (reflecting anticipated rate cuts that never materialized).
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 20
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans and Foreclosures
Elevated interest rates continue to pressure new development and CRE transaction activity. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen approximately 60 basis points since the onset of the Iran conflict to above
4.5%, lifting borrowing costs across CRE, construction, consumer, and corporate lending alike.
The CMBS delinquency rate was at 7.08% overall in May 2026 (Trepp), with office delinquencies at
11.08% (a slight pullback from the January all-time high of 12.34% following several large loan modifications and extensions) and multifamily improving to 6.57%, a 46-basis point decline from the prior record high. Approximately $936 billion in CRE debt maturities are projected for 2026, with a further peak of approximately $1.26 trillion anticipated in 2027. The energy price shock, while moderating from its peak following the mid-June ceasefire agreement, compounds these pressures by raising operating expenses across property types and complicating underwriting assumptions.
Transaction volume has been recovering. Commercial and multi-family mortgage originations increased by 52% year-over-year during the First Quarter 2026, according to the Mortgage Banking
Association. The outlook for the remainder of the year, however, is less certain, as the Fed’s signals of potential rate increases, rather than the cuts markets had previously anticipated, weigh on borrowing conditions. Notably, banks have resumed more active participation in CRE lending, partly driven by the volume of bank-held loans maturing this year requiring refinancing. Alternatively, uncertainty in the financial markets may redirect institutional capital toward stabilized CRE as a safer investment opportunity.
The California Forecast
According to the UCLA Anderson School of Management’s Spring 2026 forecast, the California economy is positioned to reaccelerate, driven by AI infrastructure investment and fiscal stimulus. High-productivity technology sectors continue to expand, while construction, retail, and hospitality face headwinds from tariff and immigration policies. The state recovered in March 2026, adding 28,700 non-farm payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3%, down from 5.4% in the prior month. California has added approximately 91,700 jobs in the first quarter of 2026, the strongest start to a year since 2022. California’s ongoing fiscal pressures, including a projected state budget deficit exceeding $17 billion, represent an additional headwind.
Concluding Remarks
The U.S. economy in 2026 faces competing signals that complicate a straightforward assessment. A
Hormuz-driven energy shock has pushed headline inflation to 4.2% in May, which is higher than the
Fed’s 2% target rate. At the June FOMC meeting, a unanimous decision was made to keep the Federal
Funds Rate steady, with Kevin Warsh signaling a potential rate increase. At the same time, the May jobs report beat muted expectations, with non-farm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs against a consensus forecast of 80,000, and AI infrastructure investment provides a meaningful demand tailwind.
The mid-June ceasefire agreement and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz reopening process have reduced the most acute near-term energy risk, though the 60-day nuclear negotiation window carries its own uncertainty, and a breakdown in follow-on talks could reverse recent market gains. Oil prices have retreated from early conflict highs following the ceasefire, as markets price in a gradual normalization of Strait transit passage. A durable resolution of the outstanding nuclear and sanctions issues would further reduce energy-driven inflationary pressure, consumer strain, and Fed policy complexity.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 21
California continues to underperform the nation on employment, with housing production constrained by elevated construction costs, regulatory barriers, and financing costs. The CRE sector remains at a pivotal stage nationally, shaped by elevated borrowing costs, a substantial debt maturity wall, record office vacancy, and elevated energy-driven operating expenses. Stabilized assets and limited new supply in select property types continue to provide support where demand fundamentals remain sound.
Risks to national and state-level forecasts include a breakdown in ongoing nuclear negotiations and prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, renewed trade-policy uncertainty, the direction of monetary policy under new Fed Chair Warsh, and continued CRE refinancing stress concentrated, primarily, in the office and multifamily sectors.
Median Household Income Total median household income for the region is presented in the following table. Overall, the subject’s
MSA and county compare favorably to the state and the country.
Income
2025 Median 2025 Average 2025 Per Capita
Area HH Income HH Income Income
United States $72,233 $104,831 $41,000
California $105,380 $151,302 $53,106
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA $146,945 $208,970 $77,235
San Mateo County $169,967 $249,033 $86,654
Redwood City city $169,574 $258,508 $92,488
Source: ESRI (ArcGIS)
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 22
Conclusions Historically, San Mateo County has been considered a desirable place to live and work. Physical features and a strong local economy attract both businesses and residents. It is a worldwide leader in technology and a regional employment center with an increasingly diversified economy. While traffic congestion will continue to be a problem, residents remain among the most affluent in the country.
The regional outlook includes declining populations in most counties. Out-migration during the pandemic coupled with continued increases in housing costs are trends that are likely to continue to keep local populations from growing substantially. Household incomes are increasing at the fastest pace since the 1980s; however, inflation is outpacing those gains, leaving households with increasing debt to keep pace. Although inflation subsided in early 2023, inflation rose in 2025. In September and
October 2025, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate, resulting in a target range of
3.75% to 4.00%. Supply chain disruptions continue to impact various sectors of the economy, but many businesses have been recovering.
With respect to commercial and residential real estate, increasing interest rates began to stifle transaction volumes in mid-2022, a trend that has continued without much change into 2025. Banks and institutional lenders have not been active for some time, leaving financing to private money lenders and cash buyers. Loan interest rates, where loans are available, have essentially doubled, leaving buyers to demand higher rates of return. While some distress is emerging, particularly in the office segment, sellers are mostly unwilling to transact at lower prices, keeping market participants in a wait-and-see posture. Reports indicate that once inflation stabilizes and interest rates can be projected with more certainty, transaction volumes will likely increase. In any case, the historic reasons for growth in the region remain the same, and, thus, the expectation is that normal growth will resume over time.
CITY AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 23
City and Neighborhood Analysis
NEIGHBORHOOD MAP
Overview The property is located in Redwood City, California, which is centrally located on the bay side of the
San Mateo Peninsula, 25 miles south of San Francisco. To the north are affluent Hillsborough, San
Carlos, Belmont, San Mateo and Burlingame. To the south are the prestigious areas of Atherton, Menlo
Park, and Palo Alto. Redwood City was incorporated in 1868 and is the San Mateo County Seat.
Transportation to the city is considered good. Rail transportation is served by the Southern Pacific main line with freight station spur lines. Caltrain’s passenger service is also available between San Jose and San Francisco. Air service is provided by San Francisco International Airport, which is 15 miles to the north. Bus transportation is provided by San Mateo County Transit intercity. Transportation by water is available from the Port of Redwood City. Freeway service is provided by U.S. Highways 101, 82, 84 and Interstate 280.
Highway 101 runs roughly in a north/south direction, connecting Redwood City to the major cities of
San Francisco and San Jose, and links to Highway 92 to the north and Highway 84 to the south. Both
Highways 92 and 84 run in an east-west direction giving access to the East Bay cities and the Western
Coastal communities on the peninsula. Transportation access to the city is good.
Redwood City combines residential, industrial, and commercial elements in a largely urban environment. Its waterfront provides a yacht harbor and the only deep-water port in the South Bay. A wide variety of housing types are available.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 24
Redwood City is also home to the commercial and residential master-planned community of Redwood
Shores. Located within the Redwood Shores area is a master-planned corporate center designed to accommodate 3.5 million square feet of high-quality office space. Nearly 200 businesses are located within the Shores Center. Also located in Redwood Shores are 1,100 acres of residential development.
All utility services are available to the city. Natural gas and electrical power are supplied to Redwood
City by PG&E. Telephone service is provided by SBC, and water is purchased from the San Francisco
Water Department. Sewer service is supplied by Redwood City under a Joint Power Authority with
South Bayside System Authority. The capacity of the South Bayside System Authority plant is 24 million gallons per day and has a peak flow of 2.6 million gallons per day. Redwood City has adopted a Master
Plan of storm drains, and there are no charges assessed.
Ampex, BroadVision, Electronic Arts, and Evernote are among the companies based in Redwood City.
The largest employers in the city include Electronic Arts, the County of San Mateo, Kaiser Hospital, Sequoia Hospital, and the Redwood City School District, all of which employ 1,000 or more people.
In addition to the water recreation found at the Port of Redwood City and the waterways of Redwood
Shores, the city has more than 30 parks, one live theater, a 12-screen and a 20-screen theater complex, three library branches, a skating rink, two municipal pools, five community centers, two golf courses, and more than a dozen public tennis courts.
Neighborhood Location and Boundaries The subject neighborhood is located in the central section of Redwood City. The area is urban in nature as it is located in the core of downtown. The neighborhood is bounded by Highway 101 to the north, Scott Avenue to the east, Woodside Road to the south, and Whipple Avenue to the west.
Transportation Access Within the immediate area of the subject, transportation access helps define the character of its development. Major travel and commuter routes within the area of the property include Winslow Street and Marshall Street. Access to the area is considered good.
Land Use Trends The neighborhood is experiencing an intensification in land use, from single story development to high rise office and multifamily apartments.
Demographics The following table depicts the area demographics in Redwood City within a one-, three-, and five-mile radius from the subject.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 25
Neighborhood Demographics
Radius (Miles) 1 Mile 3 Mile 5 Mile
Trade Area (Sq. Mi.) 3.14 28.27 78.54
Trade Density (Pop/Sq. Mi.) 6,156 4,697 4,191
Population
Census Population (2010) 25,958 121,421 252,292
Census Population (2020) 30,022 130,252 269,140
Current Population (2025) 31,219 135,075 279,853
Projected Population (2030) 33,443 138,995 285,126
Compound Annual Growth
2010 - 2020 1.5% 0.7% 0.6%
2020 - 2025 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
2025 - 2030 1.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Households
Census Households (2010) 8,779 43,455 94,828
Census Households (2020) 11,126 46,612 98,656
Current Households (2025) 11,509 47,312 100,314
Projected Households (2030) 12,346 48,449 101,526
Compound Annual Growth
2010 - 2020 2.4% 0.7% 0.4%
2020 - 2025 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%
2025 - 2030 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Average Household Size (2025) 2.62 2.79 2.74
Source: ESRI (ArcGIS) (Lat: 37.487286, Lon: -122.230548)
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 26
The population is 135,075 within a three-mile radius of the subject property with a projected annual growth rate of 0.6%. There were 50,988 housing units within the three-mile radius. Housing is near evenly divided amongst owner and renter occupants..
Nuisances & External Obsolescence Neighborhood properties have adequate levels of maintenance. No adverse or unfavorable factors were observed.
Neighborhood Life Cycle Most neighborhoods are classified as being in one of four stages: growth, stability, decline, or revitalization. Overall, the subject neighborhood is in the revitalization stage of its life cycle.
Immediate Area Uses The below aerial photo exhibits the uses located in the subject’s immediate vicinity.
Neighborhood Demographics (cont.)
Radius (Miles) 1 Mile 3 Mile 5 Mile
Trade Area (Sq. Mi.) 3.14 28.27 78.54
Trade Density (Pop/Sq. Mi.) 6,156 4,697 4,191
2025 Housing Units
Median Home Value $1,693,182 $1,941,866 $2,000,001
Median Year Built 1970 1962 1967
Total Housing Units 12,522 50,988 108,389
Owner-Occupied Housing % 22.6% 48.9% 49.2%
Renter-Occupied Housing % 69.3% 43.9% 43.4%
Vacant Housing % 8.1% 7.2% 7.5%
2025 Employment
Total Establishments 0 0 0
Total Employees 0 0 0
Average Commute Time n/a n/a n/a
% College Graduates 54.2% 57.6% 65.1%
2025 Income Summary
Median Household Income $152,091 $182,871 $195,817
Average Household Income $233,821 $281,196 $291,481
Avg Spending/Household $58,179 $71,034 $73,492
Per Capita Income $87,465 $98,270 $104,691
Source: ESRI (ArcGIS) (Lat: 37.487286, Lon: -122.230548)
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 27
IMMEDIATE AREA USES
Source: Google Map
Uses along Hamilton Street in the vicinity of the subject are primarily commercial and civic in nature.
Directly north of the subject, across Marshall Street, are older low-rise commercial and office buildings, including the two-story Watry Building at 811 Hamilton Street (built 1929), along with public parking serving the downtown core. Directly east of the subject, across Hamilton Street, are Courthouse Square, a public plaza that hosts community events throughout the year, and the San Mateo County History
Museum, housed in the historic county courthouse. Directly south of the subject, on the Broadway-fronting portion of the same block, are entertainment and commercial uses anchored by the historic
Fox Theatre (2215 Broadway), with ground-floor retail, restaurant, and personal service uses continuing along Broadway and Main Street beyond. Directly west of the subject are mid-rise office uses fronting
Winslow Street, including the five-story office building at 889 Winslow Street; beyond Winslow Street is the Caltrain right-of-way, with the Redwood City Caltrain station located approximately one block southwest of the subject.
Additional uses in the immediate area include the Cinemark Century 20 cinema, Class A office buildings such as 601 Marshall Street, newer mid-rise multifamily and mixed-use residential development, and civic and governmental uses associated with the County government center, City Hall, and the
Redwood City Public Library along Middlefield Road. The City of Redwood City is actively encouraging high-density multifamily development in the area through the Downtown Precise Plan, having removed the cap on net new residential units within the plan area and imposing no site-specific density or FAR limits, which has resulted in continued mid- and high-rise residential construction in the downtown core. As shown above, the density of uses in the area is relatively high with few vacant parcels available.
© 2026 VALBRIDGE PROPERTY ADVISORS | NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PAGE 28
Analysis and Conclusions The neighborhood is characterized by a dense, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use downtown core anchored by civic, entertainment, office, and retail uses, with strong transit accessibility via Caltrain and a development pattern of infill and redevelopment consistent with the Downtown Precise Plan. The concentration of employment, government services, and entertainment venues generates consistent demand for commercial space, and recent mid- and high-rise office and residential construction reflects continued investor and developer confidence in the district. The neighborhood is considered to be in the revitalization stage of its life cycle, and the outlook for the area is positive.
This is the start of the file's text. The full file is on GovTribe.
File details come from the government source that posted it. Updated .