CN-550000-CAO84-W0020000.pdf

STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

TASK WORK ORDER FOR PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

375-030-25

PROCUREMENT

08/21

Consultant:

Address:

Date:

10/28/2026

*Limiting or Estimating/Budgeted Amount.

Distribution:

Task Work Order No.:

Contract No.: Payment FM No.:

CAO84 190258-1-32-83

$12,482,042.89

(name) (title) Signature

Bobby Bull Value Engineer

Other Notes:

An independent assessment of the staff hours and quantities for the proposed services has been performed, and found to be fair, reasonable, and competitive.

(LS1) Lump sum paid at completion

Page 1 Total

Page 2 thru 6 Subtotal

Total

PMA Consultants LLC

PMA Consultants

4901 Vineland Road, Suite 330 Orlando, FL 32811

(To be entered upon execution of T.W.O.)

Brief Task Description:

In accordance with the above referenced contract, you are authorized to perform the tasks detailed in attached Exhibit A (Scope of Services).

Compensation elements are as follows:

Element Description Amount Estimate/LimitMethod of Compensation

The total amount or the limiting amount of the compensation will be:

All services required under this Task Work Order will be completed on or before:

$47,977.92

$47,977.92 Limit

To analyze the performance of Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (CSRA) conducted over the past 15 years by comparing actual project outcomes with CSRA predictions.

This initiative aims to evaluate the effectiveness of CSRA, improve future cost and schedule forecasts, develop key performance indicators (KPIs), and establish a robust, user-friendly database to support ongoing performance monitoring, forecasting, and analysis. The scope of work will be executed in two distinct phases to gauge the viability and effectiveness of the proposed risk KPIs tool.

Signature

File, Procurement, Comptroller, Bobby Bull, Gaelan Bishop, April Combs, Jeanine Pumphrey

Managing Director

$47,977.92

$0.00

(name) (title)

Richard L. Johnson

$47,977.92

Total authorizations to date (including this one):

Departmental Approval:

Consultant Acceptance:

Docusign Envelope ID: D458C19C-14A3-482D-9128-E68FFEC46376

05/01/2025 | 4:56 PM EDT

FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

FUNDS APPROVAL

CAO84

5/1/2025

CONTRACT INFORMATION

FUNDS APPROVAL INFORMATION

FUNDS APPROVED/REVIEWED FOR JASON ADANK, CPA, COMPTROLLER ON 5/1/2025

Action: Task Work Order

Reviewed or Approved: APPROVED

Organization Code: 55410100966

Expansion Option: A4

Object Code: 131500

Amount: $47,977.92

Financial Project: 19025813283

Work Activity (FCT): 011

CFDA:

Fiscal Year: 2025

Budget Entity: 55100100

Category/Category Year: 088849/25

Amendment ID: W002

Sequence: 00

User Assigned ID: TWO 2

Enc Line (6s)/Status: 0001/04

Total Amount: $47,977.92

Contract: CAO84

Contract Type: CA - ENGINEERING (ENGINEER)

Vendor Name: PMA CONSULTANTS LLC

Vendor ID: F383327768001

Beginning Date of This Agreement: 07/28/2023

Ending Date of This Agreement: 07/27/2028

Contract Total/Budgetary Ceiling: bc = $5,000,000.00

Method of Procurement: C - REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL (287.55,F. S.)

Description: Provide risk management services related to transportation facilities and to conduct training in the principles of risk

Page1 of 1

To: Jeanine.Pumphrey@dot.state.fl.us

EXHIBIT A

SCOPE OF SERVICES

Risk Key Performance Indicators for Cost and Schedule Forecasting and Analysis on Florida Department of

Transportation (FDOT) Completed Projects

CONTRACT NO: CAO84

Task Work Order: Number 2

Task Work Order Title: Risk Key Performance Indicators – Phase 1

Overview FDOT seeks to analyze the performance of Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (CSRA) conducted over the past 15 years by comparing actual project outcomes with CSRA predictions. This initiative aims to evaluate the effectiveness of CSRA, improve future cost and schedule forecasts, develop key performance indicators (KPIs), and establish a robust, user-friendly database to support ongoing performance monitoring, forecasting, and analysis.

The scope of work will be executed in two distinct phases to gauge the viability and effectiveness of the proposed risk KPIs tool. PMA will conduct independent and objective research on a selected sample of completed projects that used CSRA. The sample will initially include five (5) projects to ensure manageable scope and detailed analysis. PMA will use a phased approach to perform this research by assessing one (1) project during Phase 1 for Task 1 only, and then moving to the next four (4) projects during Phase 2. This phased approach will ensure that our team understand the level of effort and quality of data that will be yielded during the collection process.

The steps to complete Phase 1 are discussed in further detail on the following pages.

Tasks The following pages contain each of the key tasks PMA will perform to complete this study.

Phase 1 – Pilot Project Research and Prototype Framework Development for One (1) FDOT Project

Task 1: Research and Database Prototype Development

Research Methodology

PMA will collect and analyze data from one (1) identified project on programmed and actual costs and schedules, CSRA reports, risk registers, and supplemental agreements (SA), comparing these outcomes to CSRA predictions.

This phased approach ensures a manageable scope and allows detailed insights to inform subsequent phases. Each project’s data will undergo collection, normalization, assessment, calibration, and deployment processes.

Data Collection To ensure comprehensive research, PMA will request access to various FDOT data sources and software applications:

a) Long Range Estimates (LRE): To obtain historical project cost data.

b) Project Suite Enterprise Edition (PSEE): For detailed project documentation, scope, budgets, schedules, resource allocations, and milestones.

c) Programs and Services Application: To gather funding and programming data.

d) Contract Information & Monitoring (CIM): To review contract details and performance.

e) AASHTOware Project Construction (PrC): For construction phase insights, including change orders and delays.

f) ProjectSolve SharePoint (PSSP): To access centralized project documentation.

g) Z/Server Dependent Production Applications: For financials, reporting, tracking, and legacy project data.

h) State Construction Office Site: For supplemental agreements (SA) and project completion reports.

PMA will also follow FDOT’s Application Development Standards to ensure compatibility with existing systems and adherence to cybersecurity protocols. The database will reside in an FDOT environment; PMA will collaborate on this effort, but it may be done by others.

Data Normalization

The collected data will be standardized to ensure consistency across all projects. Coordination with the Department’s Project Finance Office is needed to be consistent with our inflation indices.

Steps include:

Converting monetary values to constant dollars using inflation indices.

Standardizing time units and milestones for uniform schedule analysis.

Categorizing risks using a common taxonomy (e.g., cost risks, schedule risks, design, utility, construction, and right of way risks).

Data Assessment

Each project’s financial and schedule data, including CSRA data, will be assessed for accuracy and completeness. This includes:

Comparing programmed and actual costs at key milestones. Additional milestones that may be outside the typical CSRA process will also be considered.

Verifying risk registers against documented risks that materialized.

Ensuring that schedule data aligns with actual completion dates.

Data Calibration

PMA will calibrate the data to align with FDOT’s historical benchmarks. This involves:

Analyzing the data to detect inconsistencies, outliers, missing values, or biases that might affect the overall accuracy

Comparing the data to a reliable external source or standard dataset to identify deviations and make necessary adjustments, such as amending probability distributions in CSRA predictions to match observed outcomes.

Applying statistical methods to quantify the level of error and determine the appropriate adjustments needed.

Establishing calibration factors for cost overruns and schedule delays.

Incorporating expert judgment to refine risk severity and likelihood estimates.

Data Deployment

The calibrated data will be used to populate the risk database. Key deployment steps include:

Mapping normalized data to database fields.

Testing data integrity and functionality through pilot analyses.

Refining database structure based on user feedback.

Analytical Framework

For each selected project, PMA will:

1. Review and Document Costs: Capture base costs, 70% percentile risk-based costs, and final actual costs at a minimum of five lifecycle milestones, such as PD&E and 90% design completion.

2. Analyze Cost Overruns/Underruns: Compare actual costs to the 70% Cost Probability Distribution (S-curve) and overrun or underrun percentages.

3. Evaluate Schedule Performance: Analyze schedule durations and completion dates (base, risk-based, and actual) and evaluate schedule performance, including delays or underruns, using the 70% Schedule Probability Distribution (i.e., S-curve).

4. Risk Materialization Analysis: Investigate whether risks identified during CSRA were mitigated, if risks materialized during pre-construction and if they were documented, identify their associated costs, and their schedule impacts. Investigate if the main drivers of cost and schedule over or underrun were captured as risks.

5. Supplemental Agreement Impact Ranking: Examine the extent to which risks were communicated to Construction teams and materialized as supplemental agreements, and rank SA impacts based on cost and schedule severity.

Deliverables A Preliminary Report summarizing findings, Proposed KPIs, prototype framework, and analyses for the selected project.

A PowerPoint presentation highlighting key results.

Fee Estimate The activities will be completed for a lump sum fee amount of $47,977.92 established by the billing rates of the contract. Refer to Exhibit 1.

EXHIBIT 1

FEE ESTIMATE