CN-550000-CAO84-W0010000.pdf

STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

TASK WORK ORDER FOR PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

375-030-25

PROCUREMENT

06/17

Consultant:

Address:

Date:

6/30/2024

*Limiting or Estimating/Budgeted Amount.

Distribution:

Task Work Order No.:

Contract No.: Payment FM No.:

CAO84 41496412204

$41,884.52

(name) (title) Signature Bobby Bull Value Engineer

Other Notes:

An independent assessment of the staff hours and quantities for the proposed services has been performed, and found to be fair, reasonable, and competitive.

(LS1) Lump sum paid at completion

Page 1 Total Page 2 thru 6 Subtotal

Total

I-95/SR 9A from S. of Miami Gardens to Broward County Line

PMA Consultants 4901 Vineland Road, Suite 330 Orlando, FL 32811

(To be entered upon execution of T.W.O.)

Brief Task Description:

In accordance with the above referenced contract, you are authorized to perform the tasks detailed in attached Exhibit A (Scope of Services).

Compensation elements are as follows:

Element Description Amount Estimate/LimitMethod of Compensation

The total amount or the limiting amount of the compensation will be:

All services required under this Task Work Order will be completed on or before:

$41,884.52

$41,884.52 Limit

PD&E Study for the I-95/SR 9A from South of Miami Gardens Drive to Broward County Line in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Signature Managing Director

$41,884.52

$0.00

(name) (title) Richard L. Johnson

$41,884.52

Total authorizations to date (including this one):

Departmental Approval:

Consultant Acceptance:

FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

FUNDS APPROVAL

CAO84

9/19/2023

CONTRACT INFORMATION

FUNDS APPROVAL INFORMATION

FUNDS APPROVED/REVIEWED FOR ROBIN M. NAITOVE, CPA, COMPTROLLER ON 9/19/2023

Action: Task Work Order

Reviewed or Approved: APPROVED

Organization Code: 55063010601

Expansion Option: A1

Object Code: 131512

Amount: $41,884.52

Financial Project: 41496412204

Work Activity (FCT): 119

CFDA:

Fiscal Year: 2024

Budget Entity: 55100100

Category/Category Year: 088849/24

Amendment ID: W001

Sequence: 00

User Assigned ID: TWO 1

Enc Line (6s)/Status: 0001/04

Total Amount: $41,884.52

Contract: CAO84

Contract Type: CA - ENGINEERING (ENGINEER)

Vendor Name: PMA CONSULTANTS LLC

Vendor ID: F383327768001

Beginning Date of This Agreement: 07/28/2023

Ending Date of This Agreement: 07/27/2028

Contract Total/Budgetary Ceiling: bc = $5,000,000.00

Method of Procurement: C - REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL (287.55,F. S.)

Description: Provide risk management services related to transportation facilities and to conduct training in the principles of risk

Page1 of 1

To: Ronda.Yawn@dot.state.fl.us

EXHIBIT A

SCOPE OF SERVICES

Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis

CONTRACT NO: CAO84

Task Work Order Number: #1

Task Work Order Title: CSRA Study for I-95/SR 9A from South of Miami Gardens Drive to Broward County Line PD&E Project

Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis for:

I-95/SR 9A from South of Miami Gardens Drive to Broward County Line (414964-1-22-03)

Overview This document contains a scope of work and fee estimate for a Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis (CSRA) to be conducted by PMA Consultants (PMA) for the project referenced above.

The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) is conducting a PD&E Study for the I-95/SR 9A from South of Miami Gardens Drive to Broward County Line in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

The project includes corridor improvements that will add highway and interchange capacity with the implementation of an express lanes system and interchange improvements. There is a preferred alternative to be analyzed and therefore risk results for one scenario will be provided.

The need for this project is to add capacity to the I-95/SR 9A corridor to meet future transportation demand, improve travel time reliability and to provide long-term mobility options.

Other considerations for the Purpose and Need of this project include safety, system linkage, freight movement and emergency evacuation.

The primary objectives of this CSRA are to identify and quantify risks to the project, identify risk responses using the Value Methodology and other strategies, as well as continue promoting the FDOT risk management process. In order to meet these objectives, PMA will:

Review relevant project documentation, including base cost estimates, schedule, plans set, and technical reports, Review the base cost estimate, including prior costs to date, Assist FDOT in identifying the required personnel for the prep-session, the base cost and schedule validation meeting, and the risk elicitation workshop, including project team members, subject matter experts, stakeholders, and other representatives as required, Hold a base cost and schedule review meeting to establish the baseline concept estimates, Facilitate the risk workshop by identifying, quantifying and documenting key risks for one scenario of the project, Elicit risk response strategies and quantifying probable adjusted impacts to cost and schedule (as required), Develop a Monte Carlo simulation model, Produce risk-based estimates of probable cost and schedule using the simulation model with input gathered during the documentation review, base cost and schedule review meeting, and risk workshop, Prepare a presentation of draft results for review by the project and management teams, and

Draft and finalize a report summarizing the CSRA.

For the purpose of scoping and estimating, only one alignment or the preferred alternative will be analyzed from the CSRA perspective, providing only one scenario outcome. Any additional scenarios will be done upon agreement on scope and fee revision.

The risk assessment will be conducted in accordance with FHWA’s Major Project Program Cost Estimating Guidance (January 2007), FHWA’s Consultant Led CSRAs Final Guidance, Project Management Institute’s (PMI) Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), AACE International’s Total Cost Management Framework, SAVE International’s Value Methodology, and FDOT’s Project Management Guide.

In terms of schedule, the following meetings and deliverables dates are tentative, and they are subject to change based on key members participation. Meetings will be held in hybrid platforms to be agreed during kick-off meeting. Virtual meetings will be held using MS-Teams platform.

These dates are as follows:

Kickoff and introduction to CSRA with tasks for the consultant identified: September 21, Base Cost & Schedule review meeting: Virtually October 12, 2023 Risk workshop: Hybrid (in-person and virtual) October 25-26, 2023 Risk draft results presentation: November 16, 2023 Final Report: November 30, 2023

The steps to complete the analysis are discussed in further detail on the following pages.

CSRA Team PMA will provide the following members of the risk assessment team:

CSRA Team Leaders: Richard Johnson, PE, CVS-Life and Francisco Cruz, PE, CCP, RMP, SP

The following subject experts are assumed to be provided by FDOT:

Discipline Leads:

o Project Team members o Environmental o Roadway o Construction o Drainage o Structures o Utilities o Right of Way o ITS and Tolling o Traffic Analysis and Design

Tasks The following pages contain each of the key tasks PMA anticipates performing to complete this study.

Meeting #1: CSRA Kickoff: Virtually September 21, 2023

Task 1. Review Baseline Project Information The first step in the CSRA consists of virtually meeting with the team to introduce and review the process, expectations of the team, and identify consultant responsibilities. See the CSRA Coordination Meeting Agenda (Exhibit 1).

The base cost estimates, including both previously expended and anticipated future costs for all areas, including:

o PD&E o Final Design o Right of Way o Utilities, o Construction, o CE&I o Environmental Mitigation o Stipends and Incentives

The base project schedule from time of workshop to project completion, Relevant technical reports or memoranda, Set of plans and roll plots Environmental documents (EIS/EA/CE), Others, as identified by the project team.

This task will also include time to familiarize PMA’s risk assessment team with the project and ensure all requested materials can be provided.

Task 2. CSRA Task 2.1 - Review of Base Cost and Schedule The main objectives of this task are for the project and risk teams, under the risk team leadership, to jointly:

Assess the base cost and its components, especially contingency and allowance items, Review, identify and separate out prior cost to date, Assign base cost uncertainty to the elements within the cost estimate, Obtain clarifications on any of the documentation reviewed under this TWO, and Develop a project summary schedule, which is a simplified representation of the full project schedule where project tasks are summary activities of the overall schedule, and where dependencies among activities, and the project (most) critical path are highlighted.

The base cost estimate will be reviewed during a virtual meeting before the workshop. To meet the schedule for the base cost validation meeting, all cost estimate updates should be received no less than a week before the meeting.

Meeting #2: Base Cost & Schedule Review – Virtually October 12, 2023

The task will also result in the identification of key project activities and consequently the project schedule, which illustrates the sequence and the inter-dependency of these activities. An example schedule chart is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Example of a Schedule

The schedule is reviewed subsequently by the project team and finalized during the risk analysis workshop. It is used, among other things, to allocate event risks to specific activities and to estimate the impact of those risks on the baseline project completion date. It is also used to allocate project costs over time and estimate cost escalation (as required), with and without project delays.

Task 2.2 - Risk Register Development Once the base cost and schedule estimates are reviewed and revised as necessary, a list of risks is created, called Risk Register, containing both opportunities and threats. This will be used during the risk workshop to facilitate discussion and the quantified cost and schedule risks are recorded in the risk register. The register combines information on the nature of the risk (a brief description of the event or scope change), its probability of occurrence, and its impact to cost and/or schedule expressed as a range of probable impacts, to the appropriate activity. An example of risk register is provided in Table 1.

Table 1: Example of Risk-Register Entries

After the evaluation of each risk, the facilitator will elicit risk response strategies to avoid, mitigate, transfer or accept the risks identified. These response strategies involve a brief description of the actions to be taken, owners of risks, quantification of the risk after the strategy has been implemented, and possible cost of implementing the strategy.

Task 2.3 - Develop Simulation Model A customized cost and schedule simulation model will be developed under this task. The model will employ Monte Carlo simulation techniques to combine the project schedule, the base costs with uncertainty, and the risk register, which contains risks identified during the risk workshop and their response strategies. Running the Monte Carlo simulation will produce distributions of probable costs and completion date for the pre-mitigation and post-mitigation scenarios of elements described in Overview0. Figure 2 provides an illustration of the overall modeling process.

A ct iv ity

Im pa ct ed

Risk

ID

Functional Assignment

/ Phase

Threat / Opportunity

Events

Type of

Risk

Pr ob ab ili ty Cost Impact (% or $) Schedule Impact

(months)

D is tr

M id

Lo w

H ig h

D is tr

M id

Lo

H h

550 DES

10.01 Construction

C ha ng es in al nm en t

C os t

.0

Pe rt

$2

$2

$3

U ni fo rm n/ a n/ a n/ a

300 PSP

20.02 Procurement

Th re at s of

La su its

C os t &

Sc he du le

D is cr et e

$1

$0 .5

$1 .5

Pe rt

6.

Figure 2: Overall Modeling Process

Task 2.4 – Risk Workshop The risk workshop involves an open and transparent process to account for risk events that may impact the project. These risk events can be classified as technical (i.e. geotechnical, structural, or environmental design considerations), non-technical (i.e. right of way costs, regulatory concerns, or market conditions), or political (i.e. funding, legal challenges, or scope changes).

Example risk events include the potential for additional requirements to meet environmental regulations, adverse geotechnical conditions in constructing high retaining walls, or the discovery of unexpected utilities.

Experts from the project team and other independent experts, including the subject matter experts (SMEs), who have a valued perspective on the risk/opportunity issues, populate the risk register in a workshop setting. Uncertainty and correlations in the base costs and durations are also assessed when they are significant, and these are defined consistently with the risk and opportunity events. The likelihood and consequences of occurrence for each risk/opportunity event are assessed during the workshop. These assessments are made with the risk lead facilitating the development of a collective opinion from among the project team and independent SMEs.

The workshop will occur over two days and focus on risk identification and quantification for the project. It will be facilitated by the risk lead from PMA. During the session, the cost and schedule risks are entered into the risk register based on the consensus input of the workshop participants.

The workshop will be structured in a way to make the best use of participants’ time, with risks discussed by functional assignment. The workshop will be conducted virtually using MS-Teams platform.

Meeting #3: Risk Workshop – Hybrid (in-person and virtual) October 25-26, 2023

Task 2.5 - Produce Risk Analysis Results After the risk workshops, this task provides the cost and schedule projections that show the range of potential outcomes for the project, including pre-response and post-response. Results include the following for the baseline concept:

1. Cost Probability Distribution Table for the project:

a. Overall project cost

b. Construction contract cost

c. Preliminary Engineering cost,

d. Utility relocations cost, and

e. Right of Way cost.

2. Schedule Probability Distribution Table for key project milestones to be determined by FDOT. These milestones may include:

a. Right of Way completion

b. Letting/Open Bids (for each project)

c. Construction NTP (for each project) and

d. Construction completion.

3. Top Cost Risk Factors Tornado Diagram for the overall project; and

4. Top Schedule Risk Factors Tornado Diagram for the overall project.

The cost results will be provided both in Present Day Cost (PDC) and Year of Expenditure (YOE) cost.

Figure 3 shows an example of a risk-based cost estimate (pre-response and post-response), which shows the potential cost on the horizontal axis and the probability of not exceeding the cost on the vertical axis.

Figure 3: Example Risk-Based Total Project Cost Estimate

An additional output, which is useful for risk prioritization and risk management, is the tornado diagram. This chart shows the top risks factors in terms of their impact on overall project cost or overall project schedule delay. An example tornado diagram is provided in Figure 4, which shows the expected value impact of the top cost risks. The tornado diagrams will help to guide the risk management efforts to target the top contributors of cost and schedule risk. They will include the expected values for both pre-response and post-response risk quantifications.

Figure 4: Example Tornado Diagram

Task 3. Documentation and Reporting Following the workshop and risk modeling process, a draft report will be prepared. The report will document the all the steps in the study, the risk process, key inputs, relevant proceedings, and present detailed risk analysis results.

PMA will provide Risk-based outcome distribution of probable cost and schedule for the following components:

Overall project:

o Cost and Schedule S-Curves o Tables highlighting Baseline, key probabilities (10%, 50%, 70% and 90%) outcomes and risk reserve values.

o Tornado Diagrams with top 10 cost and schedule risks

Preliminary Engineering Cost & Schedule S-Curves Right of way Cost and Schedule S-Curves Utilities Cost and Schedule S-curves Construction Cost and Schedule S-curves

The presentation of draft risk results will be delivered 2 weeks after workshop and will be incorporated in the draft report. The report will then be submitted to the project team for additional review and feedback, on or before November 30, 2023. The project and management teams will provide comments within a two-week review period after the report submission. Proposed revisions to the report will be discussed with the project team, and changes will be made as appropriate within three weeks of receiving comments. The final report will be submitted to the project team for risk and project management purposes.

Task 4. Project Management The objective of this task is to manage the work elements for purposes of controlling costs, maintaining schedule, providing quality products that are appropriate for meeting the goals of the study, and for coordinating work activities with other members of the study team.

PMA will provide contract administration and team management, coordination, and direction for the duration of the project. Richard Johnson will be the project manager and will serve as the consultant’s primary point of contact with FDOT for this Scope of Work.

Deliverables Draft and Final Reports

Fee Estimate The activities will be completed for a lump sum fee amount of $41,884.52 established by the billing rates of the contract. Refer to Exhibit 2.

EXHIBIT 1

COST AND SCHEDULE RISK ASSESSMENT (CSRA)

FHWA COORD & PREP SESSION AGENDA

I-95/SR 9A from South of Miami Gardens Drive to Broward County Line Tuesday, September 25, 2023

9:00am to 11:00am

LEAD

TIME

Minutes

PREP SESSION OBJECTIVES Outcome

FDOT CO

15 min

1. FHWA Coordination

a. Identify Risk Consultant

b. Logistics of Risk Workshop and Related Activities

c. Consultant Deliverables

d. CSRA Completed in October 2023

Risk Lead

2. Brief Overview of CSRA Process & Prep Session Goals/Expectations

a. General overview of the process

b. Goals and Expectations of the Prep Session

Understanding how the process works.

Project Manager

30 min

3. Review Project & Brainstorm Areas of Risk

a. Describe the project and characteristics;

b. Review schedule and cost risk issues, constraints;

c. Identify project elements for validation;

d. Identify alternatives and scenarios.

Understand project features and work elements.

4. Develop Project Risk List

a. Identify potential project risks

PRODUCT: Risk List for use in Workshop

Cost Lead

5. Discuss base cost estimate for project

a. Identify areas of project cost: design, environmental, right of way, utilities, construction, CEI

b. Ensure estimate is complete for use in CSRA

c. Identify any contingencies, escalation and missing items

d. Schedule base cost validation web meeting

PRODUCT: Base estimate to be validated prior to workshop.

6. Discuss draft flowchart for project schedule

a. Review current project schedule

b. Modify as needed based on current project status

PRODUCT: Starter flowchart of project to be finalized prior to

7. Summarize Meeting

a. Identify workshop participants

b. Agree on length of workshop and agenda

c. List action items, due dates and lead person

Know exactly what you will do when you leave to prepare for the

Adjourn