Federal Project Grant Award Summary

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) awarded $787,837 to The Regents of the University of California, San Francisco on April 10, 2026, under the Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research program (CFDA 93.855) to develop and apply computational tools for assessing disease transmission risk. The project, which extends through March 31, 2031, focuses on advancing analytical methods to quantify and mitigate the risk of infectious diseases transitioning from episodic to endemic transmission patterns. The research addresses critical gaps in existing epidemiological models by combining statistical inference with simulation approaches to better analyze sporadic infection clusters and evaluate control strategies for emerging zoonoses, re-emerging vaccine-preventable diseases, and healthcare-associated infections.

The deliverables include extended branching process models that account for imperfect surveillance observations and heterogeneity in disease transmission and susceptibility, along with practical applications of these methods to real-world disease data. The project will also incorporate mobility and demographic data to construct synthetic populations representing varied epidemiological scenarios. These analytical tools and methodologies are intended to improve public health capacity to monitor emerging infectious disease threats and support evidence-based intervention strategies, with direct applicability to diseases such as mpox, SARS-CoV-2, and antimicrobial resistance.