Project Grant 2628431

The National Science Foundation Office of International Science and Engineering awarded the University of California Irvine $412,004 on September 15, 2026, under the Office of International Science and Engineering program (CFDA 47.079) to assess decadal variability of sea ice at both poles through the NSF/GEO-UKRI/NERC Lead Agency Opportunity.

This joint US/UK project will improve understanding of why polar sea ice changes over decades and how future changes can be projected more reliably. The research addresses poorly quantified mechanisms by which internal variability and external forcings—including volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, and aerosols—drive sea-ice evolution on decadal timescales at both poles. Arctic sea-ice cover declined rapidly for several decades but has remained relatively steady for approximately twenty years, while Antarctic sea ice contracted sharply since 2016 after remaining broadly stable or slightly increasing from 1979 to 2015. The project will also support U.S. workforce development by training an early-career postdoctoral researcher in large-ensemble analysis.

Under the Lead Agency Opportunity structure, a single joint proposal was peer-reviewed by the agency whose investigator held the largest proportion of the budget, with each agency subsequently funding the proportion supporting scientists at institutions in their respective countries. Performance occurs in Irvine, California, with a period of performance through August 31, 2028.