Project Grant 2534989

The National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs awarded the University of Washington $666,998 on September 1, 2026, under the Polar Programs assistance listing (CFDA 47.078) to investigate the causes, predictability, and implications of the recent decline in Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean warming.

The project applies modeling approaches to understand why Antarctic sea ice cover reversed from a steady increase during 1979–2015 to rapid decline since 2015, and why the Southern Ocean has begun warming after decades of cooling. The research isolates the relative contributions of individual physical processes—including momentum, radiative, turbulent, freshwater, and ocean heat fluxes—to these trends, and develops predictions of conditions over the next decade to assess whether recent patterns represent a new baseline or may return to pre-2015 levels. The project focuses on three research themes: the processes driving recent sea ice decline, how conditions will evolve over the next ten years, and the global implications of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean warming, particularly for the Pacific Basin. The work also includes training support for a postdoctoral student.

Performance occurs at the University of Washington in Seattle, Washington, with a period of performance from September 1, 2026, through August 31, 2029.