Theory of Mind

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has issued a Special Notice expressing interest in developing advanced capabilities for national security decision-making. Specifically, the agency is exploring a new program focused on creating an algorithmic theory of mind to model and predict adversary behavior. The notice highlights DARPA's goal of developing technological solutions that can analyze an actor's situational awareness, strategic thinking, and potential future actions. By combining algorithmic approaches with human expertise, DARPA seeks to create sophisticated modeling and simulation environments that can provide more comprehensive strategic insights. The Special Notice is part of DARPA's ongoing efforts to advance state-of-the-art technologies in deterrence and compellence strategies.

The primary objective of this initiative is to enable national security decision-makers to optimize strategies for influencing adversary actions through more nuanced predictive modeling. DARPA is seeking innovative technical solutions that can decompose strategic approaches into basis vectors, allowing for tracking of strategy changes under non-stationary conditions. While this is not a formal solicitation, the agency encourages researchers and organizations to explore potential collaboration through DARPAConnect, a free resource designed to help nontraditional performers engage with DARPA. The program aims to develop capabilities that provide more options for incentive frameworks while preventing unwanted escalation in complex national security scenarios. Interested parties are directed to the DARPAConnect website (https://www.darpaconnect.us) for more information, with the current Special Notice posted on December 9, 2024, and an initial response window closing on December 20, 2024. The opportunity is categorized under NAICS 541715 for Research and Development in Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences.