DARPA-SN-25-14.pdf
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This Special Notice (DARPA-SN-25-14) from DARPA's Strategic Technology Office announces interest in developing new technical capabilities for modeling and predicting adversarial behavior to optimize national security decision-making strategies.
The notice outlines DARPA's intent to launch a program focused on developing an algorithmic theory of mind that combines algorithms with human expertise to model adversaries' situational awareness and predict future actions. The program aims to create modeling and simulation environments for exploring potential courses of action in national security scenarios with greater breadth and efficiency than currently possible. Key technical objectives include understanding actors' current strategies and decomposing them into basis vectors to track strategy changes under non-stationary assumptions. While this is not a formal solicitation, interested researchers and organizations are directed to learn more about working with DARPA through DARPAConnect (https://www.darpaconnect.us), a free resource for new and nontraditional performers.
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Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Strategic Technology Office
Special Notice
DARPA-SN-25-14
Theory of Mind
Eric Davis, DARPA/STO
DARPA is interested in developing new capabilities to enable national security decisionmakers to optimize strategies for deterring or incentivizing actions by adversaries. As such, the agency is is searching for new technical solutions in this space.
Actions are determined by situational awareness, ideas of risks and rewards, and overarching strategy. The goal of an upcoming program will be to develop an algorithmic theory of mind to model adversaries’ situational awareness and predict future behavior. The program will seek to combine algorithms with human expertise to explore, in a modeling and simulation environment, potential courses of action in national security scenarios with far greater breadth and efficiency than is currently possible. This would provide decisionmakers with more options for incentive frameworks while preventing unwanted escalation.. The program will seek not only to understand an actor’s current strategy but also to find a decomposed version of the strategy into relevant basis vectors to track strategy changes under non-stationary assumptions.
DARPA is issuing this Special Notice to express interest in this field as it explores an upcoming program to advance state-of-the-art in theory of mind and deterrence and compellence.
Researchers and organizations that are interested in developing technologies related to this or other technologies are encouraged to learn more about working with DARPA at https://www.darpaconnect.us. DARPAConnect is a free resource established to help facilitate new and nontraditional performers to work with DARPA. This notice is not a request for information or solicitation. This information is subject to change in content, relative importance, or other meaningful ways without further notification.
https://www.darpaconnect.us/
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