NWWM20002200023 Statement of Work RFQ.docx

Statement of Work Extreme Heat Social and Behavioral Science Research

I. Background Heat continues to be the leading weather-related killer with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimating more than 700 deaths and 28,000 hospitalizations a year resulting from heat exposure. Additionally, pediatric vehicular heatstroke deaths remain an issue. Since 1998, the average annual number of children dying of heatstroke in vehicles is 37. These concerns are not going away - extreme heat is closely tied to climate change. Based on a Climate.gov article, NOAA's global analysis shows that the 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2005, and 7 of the 10 have occurred just since 2014. Not only are heat waves occurring more frequently, but are also more intense and longer-lasting with less cooling overnight. This can put more strain on the human body, as well as our infrastructure. The Pacific Northwest heatwave in June 2021 exemplifies this. The CDC reported the mean daily number of heat-related illness Emergency Department visits during this heatwave was 69 times higher than the same time in 2019 for that area.

Historically Underserved and Socially Vulnerable Communities (HUSVCs) typically experience low-income housing, homelessness, physical disabilities, and language barriers increasing their vulnerability to heat impacts. Per the Executive Order On Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government, underserved refers to “populations sharing a particular characteristic, as well as geographic communities, that have been systematically denied a full opportunity to participate in aspects of economic, social, and civic life.” National Weather Service (NWS) has articulated a priority to enhance services for these historically underinvested and underserved communities that are at greater risk for experiencing negative health impacts related to extreme heat.

As heat-related impacts continue to increase, the NWS must rise to the challenge and provide the most equitable and informed heat products and services to mitigate loss of life and property. Modeling and forecasting capabilities have continued to expand; specific to heat, NWS has begun to offer a variety of tools in addition to the traditional Heat Index (e.g. experimental Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) forecasts and a prototype HeatRisk index that incorporate health data).

With that said, even the most accurate and up-to-date forecasts must be paired with Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences (SBES) to inform effective communication and messaging in order to reduce impact. Currently, NWS provides heat safety information from a national level through seasonal safety campaigns, a national heat safety webpage, and social media. In addition, national headlines and text products such as Excessive Heat Watch, Excessive Heat Warning, Heat Advisory, and local forecasts provide more tailored and specific information regarding upcoming and ongoing heat events. NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) also provide additional heat safety information and Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) via local web pages, social media accounts, and partner weather briefings and consults. Also, products from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at the outlook, sub-seasonal, and seasonal scale provide context for heat events. For instance, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces a 6-10 Day Heat Index Outlook and Weather Prediction Center (WPC) offers Heat index probabilities and a Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook.

Over the past year, NWS has made changes to bolster our national heat messaging. For instance, we now include information on populations vulnerable to heat impacts. For the purposes of this Statement of Work (SOW), we define vulnerable as aspects of a person or community that put them at risk of greater impacts to a certain hazard when compared to the broader population. We know that a body’s ability to respond to heat is dependent on a multitude of factors including age, physical condition, acclimatization, medications, and underlying medical conditions. So, NWS has incorporated specific wording and graphics within our seasonal safety campaign and heat safety webpage to address these heat-related vulnerabilities. NWS has also been actively working to gather feedback both internally and externally on how our products and services are received, understood, and acted upon. We conducted an internal heat survey with our WFOs, hosted a workshop with NWS stakeholders and WFO core partners, and attended WFO-led partner meetings with a focus on heat. These efforts uncovered a number of challenges including the lack of attention given to heat, geographic differences in heat impacts, availability of NWS messaging in languages other than English, messaging and support for heat impacts during large social events, effective messaging specific to vulnerable and underserved populations, and the understanding of traditional and newer tools to measure heat stress (e.g. Heat Index, WBGT, HeatRisk).

Recent literature has noted a variety of challenges and research needs associated with heat that align with those uncovered by our internal efforts above. Three main themes are summarized here: 1) A variety of factors have led to heat’s designation as a silent killer. Inconsistencies in reporting and counting heat-related illnesses and mortality make it challenging to convey the true public health impact of heat. Also, in contrast to more visually dramatic hazards such as hurricanes and tornadoes, extreme temperature is not a hazard that can be ‘seen’ in the same way. Instead, it can be perceived as just another nuisance of the warmer seasons. 2) Heat’s impacts are local - It can be difficult to develop outreach and messaging materials as well as community action plans for heat when impacts can vary dramatically at the individual level. For instance, microclimates can develop in a single city, acclimatization creates regional differences, and age, physical conditions, medications, and activity level can impact the body’s ability to regulate temperature. 3) A person’s risk perception doesn’t necessarily reflect their actual risk of heat impacts or their decision to take protective action. For example, in general, older populations do not have a high risk perception of heat despite their physical vulnerability. A recent 2021 study performed a systematic literature review of heat-related research over the past decade and compiled a list of critical research gaps with regards to heat perception. Needs included more work on rural locations, use of large representative samples, linkages between heat perception and behavior, role of community education in promoting protective behavior, developments of metrics to measure resilience to heat, and social/cultural components of interventions.

While NWS continues to enhance its heat-related products and services, there is still significant room for improvement, particularly in bridging the gap between physical science information and how it is received and acted upon by our public and partners. As such, this SOW will focus on expanding our knowledge of public perception and understanding of heat to inform and improve NWS’ national and local level heat communication and messaging. This will include an initial literature review to draw out known best practices and identify research gaps to inform a subsequent SBES study on heat perception.

II. Scope / Description of Work

The purpose of this study is to identify best practices for communicating and messaging the impacts of heat on human health by drawing from relevant literature and analyzing public perception and understanding of heat. The contractor shall accomplish this by performing a literature review and designing and executing a study as described below.

1) Conduct a literature review on best practices for communicating and messaging the impacts of heat on human health. Begin with the foundation set forth in the background section of this SOW and other information provided by NWS during initial meetings.

a) Make note of specific strategies for reaching and communicating with HUSVCs who may be most vulnerable to the impacts of extreme heat (e.g. elderly, those with chronic illnesses, lack of air conditioning, pregnant people, etc.) and/or those who care for people vulnerable to heat.

b) As needed, expand the review to other types of hazards that could inform best practices for heat including but not limited to public health, climate change, and drought/water shortages. Focus attention on challenges and solutions for messaging long-fused and/or ‘invisible’ hazards.

2) From the literature review identify challenges and gaps that have not yet been addressed, but if understood more fully could directly inform improvements to NWS heat-related products and services. This step will inform the components of the following analysis.

3) Design and execute a study that conceptualizes the public perception and understanding of heat by answering the following research questions:

a) How do people perceive the dangers of heat on the human body?

b) How do people perceive their personal risk of experiencing negative impacts from heat?

c) What information do people currently use to make decisions on protecting themselves and/or others from the impacts of heat?

i) Integrating use of NWS products and services as appropriate.

d) Do people know how to protect themselves and/or others from the impacts of heat on the human body?

e) How do location and experience impact public perception and understanding?

4) Complete a report that describes the methods, results, and implications of the above study.

III. Tasks

1. Kick-off meeting Facilitate and participate in a kick-off meeting with the project team to communicate goals and objectives of the project, roles and responsibilities of the project team members, the methodologies to be employed to engage stakeholders, the level of participation needed by the project team, and the level and mechanism of communication among the project partners. It is anticipated that this kick-off meeting will be via conference call.

2. Coordination Calls Monthly (or at a regular interval as determined by the project team) team coordination calls conducted by the contract lead and include appropriate NWS staff to ensure continual communication throughout the course of this project. A brief agenda should be provided prior to each call. Brief notes and action items should be provided within a week after each call.

3. Work Plan Develop a detailed work plan and project timeline based on input from the project team(s) during the kick-off meeting(s). This task should include a schedule for communicating with the NOAA team or sub-teams at regular intervals throughout the project cycle.

4. Conduct the Literature Review Work with NWS to refine and finalize the scope of a qualitative systematic literature review on best practices for communicating and messaging the impacts of heat on human health. Once a framework is decided upon, the contractor shall conduct the literature review and report back to NWS on findings. If needed, the review should be expanded beyond heat hazards that could inform best practices for heat including but not limited to public health, climate change, and drought/water shortages. Attention should be focused on challenges and solutions for messaging long-fused and/or ‘invisible’ hazards. While the literature review should remain broad in scope of audience, the contractor should make note of specific strategies for reaching and communicating with those most vulnerable to the impacts of extreme heat (e.g. elderly, those with chronic illnesses, lack of air conditioning, pregnant people, etc.) and/or those who care for people vulnerable to heat.

The literature review should include two components:

· A spreadsheet listing all papers with appropriate bibliographic information, research focus areas (i.e., public understanding, evacuation implications, emergency manager use, etc.), method and sample information such as but not limited to, type of sample (i.e., generalizable, convenient, etc.), audience (i.e., public, emergency managers, etc.), sampling location (one state, region, country, etc.), etc.

· A corresponding summary report describing the consistent findings and gaps, and practical and/or research recommendations. This summary report should guide the subsequent study in Task 4.

5. Design study to conceptualize public perception and understanding of heat Work with NWS to develop an appropriate scope and methodological approach to conceptualize public perception and understanding of the impacts of heat on human health. The study should address the following research questions:

a) How do people perceive the dangers of heat on the human body?

b) How do people perceive their personal risk of experiencing negative impacts from heat?

c) What information do people currently use to make decisions on protecting themselves and/or others from the impacts of heat?

i) Integrating use of NWS products and services as appropriate.

d) Do people know how to protect themselves and/or others from the impacts of heat on the human body?

e) How do location and experience impact public perception and understanding of the impacts of heat on the human body?

The contractor shall propose a methodology that aims to answer these questions. Mixed methods, such as utilizing interviews, focus groups, surveys, or web data, etc., are encouraged. For each respective method, the contractor will design an appropriate methodological instrument (i.e. focus group script, draft survey, etc.). The proposals should explain the sampling approach and how it will rigorously capture the needed data.

The contractor shall interact with NWS at the beginning with an initial kick-off meeting, as well as to develop or review, as appropriate, effective methodological instruments. Depending on the methodology recommended by the contractor, OMB PRA paperwork may be required. OMB PRA tasks and associated deliverables shall be incorporated in the proposal as needed.

6. Conduct study to conceptualize public perception and understanding of heat The contractor shall implement the agreed-upon methodological approach and collect and analyze data. The contractor shall receive any necessary Office of Management and Budget (OMB)/Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval in sufficient time to stay within the time bounds of the contract.

7. Presentation and Report:

The contractor shall prepare a comprehensive draft and final documentation that describes:

· all sources of data and other information used in the analysis, including meeting notes and/or transcripts of relevant communications with study participants;

· the methods used for assessment and other, associated analyses;

· the results and conclusions of the analyses, including recommended applications of knowledge and best practices for communicating and messaging;

· lessons learned during this project (what worked well and what didn’t) and recommended best practices for future studies.

· The report shall also include separate appendices for information that cannot be conveniently included in the main narrative, including but not limited to a complete bibliography, copies of any survey instruments that were used, and tabular summaries and descriptive statistics for primary data that were collected

All data collected shall be provided in an electronic spreadsheet or database, in a format approved by the government. In coordination with NOAA, the contractor shall organize and facilitate a meeting to review the final report. Participants in this call shall include NOAA staff members and the contractor’s full project team.

IV. Deliverables All deliverables in electronic format in Word unless otherwise noted

V. Qualifications Requirements The contractor shall possess the following qualifications, equipment, prior experience, and skills: project management; graduate degree in social science; extensive experience in both qualitative and quantitative social science research; experience working with federal agencies; experience working with physical scientists towards effective communication of their research and information; knowledge of the meteorological enterprise.

VI. Government Furnished Materials The government will provide:

· NWS Weather-Ready Nation Strategic Plan 2019-2022

· DOC Strategic Plan

· NOAA Service Equity Assessments Final Report

· Executive Order On Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved Communities Through the Federal Government

· Preliminary list of relevant literature and academic presentations

· Relevant, recent literature review (2021): “The driving influences of human perception to extreme heat: A scoping review”

VII. Payment Schedule Payment will be tied to acceptance of deliverables. Once a deliverable is accepted by the Government Point of Contact, an invoice can be submitted in arrears. Finance will process payment within 30-days after receipt of invoice.

VIII. Period of Performance The period of performance shall be 18 months from the contract award date to properly conduct, analyze, and present the social science results and recommendations to NWS.

IX. Place of Performance The contractor shall perform the work at their office, at the National Weather Service headquarters, and in locations appropriate to the proposed methodology. Information will be exchanged between NOAA/NWS staff via email, telephone calls, and Federal Express.

X. Travel The contractor shall make independent travel arrangements and pay for any travel costs associated with the contract in accordance with federal travel regulations. Travel will be permitted as appropriate with the proposed methodology.

XI. IT Security Requirements The Certification and Accreditation (C&A) or Assessment and Authentication (A&A) requirements of Clause 48 CFR 1352.239-72 do not apply, and a Security Accreditation Package is not required.

The contractor shall have completed CSC’s IT Security Questionnaire within one year prior to this task order being awarded. CSC shall have evaluated the contractor’s response to the questions and found the contractor to be an acceptable IT Security risk.

The Authorizing Official is satisfied that the deliverables received as a result of this acquisition will be accepted with the understanding that the cyber security controls employed by the contractor are acceptable and that all deliverables are of low or nominal risk. The risks of this acquisition and deliverables will be accepted.

XII. Government Points of Contact

TBD