Canopy Demand Report_-_BBN_2026 .pdf

BID BOARD NOTICE (BBN)

Procurement I.D. Number: BPM058633

Issue Date: August 27, 2026

Title: Canopy Demand Report Analysis and Market Modeling

Due Date: September 17th, 2026, at 5 PM

THIS SOLICITATION SHALL BE MADE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SMALL PROCUREMENT

REGULATIONS DESCRIBED IN COMAR 21.05.07.00

I. PROCUREMENT OBJECTIVES

A. Summary Statement

The Maryland Cannabis Administration (MCA) is required by Alcoholic Beverages and Cannabis Article § 36-802 to report on the adequacy of cannabis supply in relation to meeting market demand. For the upcoming reporting period, MCA seeks support from a qualified third-party vendor to assist in compiling, analyzing, and presenting the data in a comprehensive and policy-relevant format. The report will support licensing decisions, policy development, and statutory reporting to the Maryland General Assembly. It is due to the Maryland General Assembly on or before December 31, 2026.

B. Issuing Office

Maryland Cannabis Administration 849 International Drive Linthicum, MD 21090

Procurement Officer:

Merricka Brown merricka.brown1@maryland.gov

Contract Monitor:

Timothy Dupree Maryland Cannabis Administration

C. Submission Deadline

Proposal submissions are to be submitted via eMaryland Marketplace Advantage (eMMA) no later than September 16, 2026, at 5 pm.

https://govt.westlaw.com/mdc/Document/NDE76D310EFE211ED8FC5E1998A637812?viewType=FullText&originationContext=documenttoc&transitionType=CategoryPageItem&contextData=(sc.Default)&bhcp=1 https://govt.westlaw.com/mdc/Document/NDE76D310EFE211ED8FC5E1998A637812?viewType=FullText&originationContext=documenttoc&transitionType=CategoryPageItem&contextData=(sc.Default)&bhcp=1 mailto:merricka.brown1@maryland.gov

II. GENERAL INFORMATION FOR VENDORS

A. Background

MCA is responsible for regulating Maryland’s medical and adult-use cannabis programs.

Alcoholic Beverages and Cannabis Article § 36-802 mandates the submission of an annual canopy demand report that evaluates whether supply meets demand in the state’s regulated cannabis market. For the upcoming reporting period, MCA seeks support from a qualified third-party vendor to assist in compiling, analyzing, and presenting the data in a comprehensive and policy-relevant format.

This report should also consider the initial demand study conducted by the Maryland General Assembly before the implementation of the Cannabis Reform Act, and update Maryland’s initial findings as of total market demand in the State. The MCA is also requesting that the vendor provide analysis of regulated market capture and the share of other cannabis sources in the total market, and make recommendations to increase regulated market capture.

The resulting report will inform future licensing policy, help assess whether additional canopy authorizations are needed, and provide evidence-based recommendations for market stabilization amid competing unregulated product sales.

B. Contract Term

This is a fixed-price contract. This initial contract period will run from October 1, 2026, through June 30, 2027 (the “Initial Term”).

C. Renewal Option

Following the Initial Term, this contract may be extended for one (1) additional period of two

(2) years (the “Renewal Term”), upon mutual written agreement of the parties, on the same terms and conditions set forth herein, unless otherwise modified in writing by the parties. Any party wishing to exercise this renewal option shall provide written notice to the other party no later than 30 days before the expiration of the Initial Term.

D. Submission of Proposals

Offerors are requested to indicate their eMaryland Marketplace Advantage (eMMA) vendor number in the Transmittal Letter (cover letter) submitted at the time of application submission to this solicitation.

eMMA is an electronic commerce system administered by the Maryland Department of General Services. The Bid Board Notice and associated materials, Offeror questions and the

Procurement Officer’s responses, addenda, and other solicitation-related information will be provided via eMMA.

To receive a contract award, a vendor must be registered on eMMA. Registration is free. Go to https://procurement.maryland.gov/, click on “Register” to begin the process, and then follow the prompts.

Proposals MUST be submitted as follows: One submission is to be labeled “Technical Proposal” and the other “Financial Proposal”. Both are to be identified as Sealed Proposals for this Bid Board Notice and are to contain the Offeror’s name, due date, and time.

All proposals must be submitted via eMMA, no later than 5:00 pm on September 16th, 2026.

III. SCOPE OF WORK

A. Background and Purpose

Alcoholic Beverages and Cannabis Article § 36-802 requires MCA to report annually whether the supply of cannabis is adequate to meet the demand for cannabis and cannabis products.

The study must include and evaluate:

● State-provided data, including but not limited to current canopy capacity, current market production efficiency, anticipated canopy capacity due to incoming licensees, transfer, and sales data

● Market demand for cannabis and cannabis products over the next 12-24 months

● The potential impact of federal regulatory transitions (including Schedule III rescheduling) on state market stability, supply constraints, and licensee capital deployment

This report will directly inform policy and licensing decisions and is due to the General Assembly on or before December 31, 2026.

B. Requirements

1) Report Preparation. Meet with MCA to review past reports and discuss data sources and planned forecasting methods.

2) Canopy Data Analysis. The contractor will analyze reported flowering canopy square footage by license type (standard vs. micro) and project operational capacity and expansion forecasts for the next 12–24 months.

3) Cannabis Supply & Demand Modeling. Evaluate cannabis production and retail sales data (pounds and dollars); use existing demand forecasts and actual market data to update supply-demand gap estimates. Supplement current market data with survey data, other research, reporting, and behavioral analysis to estimate the current total cannabis demand within the State. Estimate all other sources of market demand, including illegal/illicit market sales, cannabinoid hemp, and out-of-state consumers; unregulated hemp-derived intoxicating cannabinoids (e.g., THCA, Delta-8). Estimate the additional canopy required to meet current and projected market demand. Analyze and model medical patient demand separately from adult-use demand, incorporating shift scenarios under potential federal Schedule III status (e.g., insurance integration or clinical product shifts).

4) Market Forecasting. Model future adult-use and medical cannabis demand under multiple growth scenarios. Incorporate variables such as new-licensee ramp-up timelines, tourism demand, and market-maturation effects. Provide fiscal-year projections for 12-24 months. Incorporate dynamic forecasting sensitivity models evaluating the impact of federal rescheduling, specifically addressing:

a) IRC § 280E Tax Relief: Model the projected impact of 280E elimination on licensee cash flows, capital reinvestment, and canopy buildout acceleration.

b) Compliance & Alignment Costs: Estimate licensee facility readiness and capital cost burdens associated with meeting federal cGMP/DEA operational standards.

c) Interstate Readiness: Assess Maryland canopy competitiveness and cost-per-pound positioning in anticipation of potential regional or national interstate trade frameworks.

5) Additional Technical Assistance. Provide additional technical assistance related to survey outcomes. Identify policy considerations based on findings (e.g., whether to expand or limit future canopy authorizations). Provide comparative insights from other states on regulated market capture and illicit diversion. Make recommendations on strategies or policies the State may pursue to increase regulated market capture.

C. Delivery Research

1. Analyzing current and projected demand for cannabis delivery services.

2. Assessing the capacity of current businesses to meet this demand.

Developing an interactive GIS map of delivery assets to identify coverage gaps for evaluating service area expansion petitions.

D . Deliverables

MCA requires this to be completed over a 5-month period each year. MCA anticipates that data collection will occur between September 1 and October each year, and data analysis will occur between October 15 and November each year. The final draft report will be due to MCA on December 15. Additional reports will be determined as needed during interim periods, with this scope left open for additional reporting as required, and advanced notice will be provided in preparation for any additional data required.

Deliverable Due Date (By or Before)

Due Date (By or Before)

Due Date (By or Before)

Clean dataset Oct 31, 2026 Oct 31, 2027 Oct 31, 2028

Preliminary draft report & exhibits

Nov 30, 2026 Nov 30, 2027 Nov 30, 2028

Final draft report Dec 15, 2026 Dec 15, 2027 Dec 15, 2028

Additional Technical Assistance

TBD TBD TBD

E. SPECIFICATIONS / TECHNICAL PROPOSAL

The selected Contractor must address each requirement in the Scope of Work. The technical proposal should not exceed five (5) pages:

IV. EVALUATION AND SELECTION PROCESS

A. Evaluation Criteria. The criteria that will be used for the evaluation of the technical proposals are listed below, in descending order of importance:

1. Demonstrated experience and capacity. To what extent does the Offeror have the experience to implement a fully anonymous survey of this size and complete the requested data analyses? Does the Offeror have resources to meet tight timelines? Did the Offeror submit one or more relevant example(s) of a past project (i.e., survey report)?

2. Statement of work. To what extent does the Offeror’s work plan address each required element and timeline?

All Qualified Offerors will be ranked from the lowest (most advantageous) to the highest (least advantageous) based on the Technical Proposal rating. The Financial Proposals will be evaluated based on reasonable cost given the time and effort described in the Technical Proposal.

B. Transmittal Letter

A transmittal letter prepared on the Offeror’s business stationery MUST accompany the proposal. The purpose of this letter is to transmit the proposal; therefore, it should be brief.

The letter shall be signed by an individual or corporate officer authorized to bind their firm to all statements in the proposal, including services, material availability, timeliness, and prices.

C. Two-Volume Submission

The selection procedure requires that the evaluation of the technical proposals be conducted before the cost data are reviewed. Consequently, each proposal MUST be submitted as two separate enclosures as indicated below.

D. Volume I–Technical

Technical Proposals should be typewritten, no more than five (5) pages in length, and written in no smaller than 11-point font. The Transmittal Letter, Organizational Chart, Resumes, and past samples of work do not count toward the page limit.

The Technical Proposal must include the following information in the order specified:

1. Transmittal Letter

a. Offeror’s name

b. Solicitation title and number that the proposal is responding to

c. Signature, typed name, and title of the individual authorized to commit the Contractor to its proposal

d. Federal Employer Identification Number (FEIN) or Social Security Number (SSN) if a single individual

e. Offeror’s eMMA number

f. Offeror’s MBE certification number (if applicable)

g. Offeror’s SBR number (if applicable)

2. Organization Capacity and Staff Experience

a. The Offeror shall discuss its organization’s expertise in conducting surveys and work relevant to this Contract.

b. The Offeror shall discuss at least two previous or current projects similar in scope or nature, or that demonstrate the Offeror’s expertise and ability to complete this project.

The Offeror shall include at least one (1) sample of a previously completed survey report or related data project to demonstrate the Offeror’s ability to analyze, display, and report data findings.

c. The Offeror shall identify the number and types of staff proposed under this contract and describe how the proposed staff’s experience and qualifications relate to their specific responsibilities. Include an organizational chart as well as resumes for all key personnel.

3. Statement of Work and Proposed Work Plan

The Offeror shall address each requirement listed in Section III/Scope of Work in its proposal and describe how its proposed services will meet or exceed the requirements. This must include a Work Plan for providing the required services, including a project management plan and a detailed timeline that meets the deliverable schedule listed in Section III.C. of the Scope of Work.

4. Conflicts of Interest

The Offeror shall disclose all conflicts of interest (obvious and not), if any, and describe in detail how the conflicts will be ameliorated. If the Offeror has performed prior or current work for the cannabis industry, describe the nature and scope of the work provided.

5. References

The Offeror shall provide at least three references documenting a vendor’s capability; can also be used to meet Minimum Qualifications (Attachment L)

E. Volume II–Financial

Under separate sealed cover from the Technical Proposal and clearly identified in the Budget Narrative Form, the Offeror shall submit a Financial Proposal that shall contain all price information in the format specified.

The Offeror shall include a Financial Proposal Form detailing the total cost of the proposed activities. The categories may include personnel (salary and fringe), consultants, travel, contracts, office/operations/supplies, conferences/meetings, and other specific project-related costs.

This volume is to contain complete cost information for all services.

The financial proposal MUST be in a separate volume from the technical proposal.

ATTACHMENT A

FINANCIAL PROPOSAL FORM

Note: Total budget not to exceed $165,000

The Financial Proposal Form shall contain all price information in the format specified on these pages. Complete the Form only as provided in the Form format. Do not amend, alter, or leave blank any items on the Form. Failure to adhere to any of these instructions may result in the Financial Proposal being determined non-responsive and rejected.

This must be completed and submitted with the Technical Proposal, under separate cover.

Printed Name and Title:

Company Name:

Company Address:

Location(s) from which services will be performed (City/State):

Phone:

Federal Tax Identification Number/FEIN:

eMMA #:

E-Mail:

Submitted By:

Authorized Signature:

Date:

The applicant's signature and date certify that the submission is correct and that the applicant agrees to perform all services stated in BPM058633.

Project Period: October 1, 2026, through June 30, 2029.

Budget Summary (NTE $165,000)

1. Report Preparation.

2. Canopy Data Analysis.

3. Cannabis Supply & Demand Modeling.

4. Market Forecasting.

5. Additional Technical Assistance.

PLEASE PROVIDE A BUDGET NARRATIVE WITH JUSTIFICATION/EXPLANATION OF EACH LINE

ITEM.

THE STATE OF MARYLAND ENCOURAGES MINORITY BUSINESS ENTERPRISES TO PARTICIPATE IN

THIS PROCUREMENT PROCESS.