Project Grant R01DA064086

The National Institute on Drug Abuse awarded The University of Kentucky Research Foundation $548,992 on September 1, 2026, under the Drug Use and Addiction Research Programs (CFDA 93.279) to develop county-level prevalence estimates for opioid use disorder using capture-recapture and Bayesian modeling techniques.

The research generates opioid use disorder prevalence estimates by county and year using capture-recapture analysis linked to data from multiple participating states, comparing results against Bayesian benchmark multiplier and Bayesian integrated abundance models. A second aim conducts Bayesian spatial regression analyses to associate the prevalence estimates with publicly available county-level covariates, ultimately enabling projection of opioid use disorder prevalence to counties with missing data. A third aim focuses on recruiting additional states, primarily those participating in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Overdose to Action Project. The project will produce a transferable framework for estimating hidden and vulnerable populations across varying state resource contexts and will inform targeted public health responses and resource allocation.

Performance occurs in Lexington, Kentucky, with work extending through June 30, 2031. The assistance type is a Project Grant, supporting basic and translational research in substance use as defined by the NIDA program.