Collaborative research: ltreb renewal: testing tipping points in a model rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem: environmental-change, increasing variances, and response mechanisms

The National Science Foundation Division of Environmental Biology awarded CAL Poly Corporation $178,335 on June 15, 2026, under the Biological Sciences program (CFDA 47.074) to conduct long-term observational research on rocky intertidal ecosystem stability in response to environmental variation, sea star wasting disease, heat waves, and temperature increases in the North Pacific Ocean.

The recipient will extend an existing decades-long time series of seaweed and animal population data collected at the rocky shore site in San Luis Obispo, California, and expand observations to warmer southern sites. The work incorporates artificial intelligence technology for data processing to forecast ecosystem state changes and identify tipping points in community stability as abiotic conditions shift. Research outputs will support resource managers and policymakers with planning tools and inform the public through media engagement and citizen science participation. The project runs through May 31, 2031, with performance at San Luis Obispo, California.

Abstract

This research addresses the problem of how environmental variation alters the stability of rocky shore seaweed and animal populations. In the past decade, the rocky tidal community suffered from sea star wasting disease as well as heat waves, which killed most rocky shore sea STARS, and negatively affected regrowth of mussels and seaweeds. The long-term observational data will continue to be collected, allowing for a greater understanding of the impacts of abiotic conditions in the north pacific ocean. This research advances society?s understanding of ecosystem stability, using long-term datasets that span decades of steady increases in temperature and punctuated by extreme events stressing organisms in this important habitat, and by pioneering data processing using artificial intelligence technology. Our goals include forecasting changes, and informing managers and policy makers for future planning. The work benefits society through the provision of guidance to managers, training the next generation of scientists, providing a generally applicable model that can benefit societal needs, and informing the public through interactions with the media, community groups, and citizen engagement. Chronic changes in abiotic conditions have enabled empirical investigation of community stability using field-testing of theoretical ideas on how changing ecological processes might affect persistence, resilience, and variability. To date, results from this study provide compelling evidence that the system is sensitive to local, regional and basin-scale environmental shifts. Extension of the time series and expansion to include warmer, southern sites will support forecasting of future states and provide powerful planning tools for managers and policymakers. Specifically, this research tests the hypothesis that despite partial recovery of oregon and california rocky intertidal communities to recent extreme temperature events, chronic ocean temperature changes and increasing new extreme heat events may cause a state shift in tidal community structure, especially in warmer southern regions. Testing this hypothesis involves building on our long-term data sets to quantify ongoing recovery of (1) sea star populations after a wasting disease event, (2) intertidal communities to disturbance, (3) mussel and sea star performance (growth, reproduction, condition), and (4) environmental variability and disease-altered species interactions. Research methods use photographs of field results, to which will be applied AI-based software for analysis. Further, the research enables detailed estimates of mussel condition, with implication for managing a fisheries resource. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.