This $429,227 Project Grant award, provided by the National Science Foundation's Geosciences Program (CFDA 47.050), will support a collaborative research project to resolve uncertainty in past carbon-14 (Δ14C) spikes from tree rings. The goal is to better understand past solar energetic particle events, which pose risks to space-based infrastructure, by quantifying physiological sources of uncertainty in Δ14C measurements from tree rings. The project will use field and model-based experiments to evaluate how different tree species and locations affect carbon uptake and storage, in order to improve estimates of the timing, duration, magnitude, and solar phase of past Δ14C production spikes. The research team, led by Northern Arizona University, will analyze three of the best-replicated Δ14C spikes from tree rings to develop a Bayesian framework for modeling Δ14C production. This will help establish an upper limit on extreme solar events to inform space weather forecasting and risk assessment. The award period is from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2027.
Mod # | Description | Reason For Modification | Federal Obligation (Click to sort descending) | Date (Click to sort ascending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not listed | $429.2k | 8/27/24 |