This collaborative research project will provide funding to conduct field studies and computer simulations to help fire managers at yellowstone and grand teton national parks adapt to climate change

The National Park Service Intermountain Region awarded a $150,000 cooperative agreement to the University of Wisconsin-Madison under the Cooperative Research and Training Programs – Resources of the National Park System (CFDA 15.945) program. The university will conduct field studies and computer simulations to help fire managers in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks adapt to climate change. Scientists will investigate the 1988 wildfires to better understand forest conversion and use modeling to determine if strategically managing fire could slow or stop conversion. They will address questions about post-fire ecological consequences and potential benefits of managing for fire refugia. Key deliverables include collecting field data by Summer 2022, analyzing data to predict future vegetation by 2023, identifying potential fire refugia with park managers by 2022, and simulating forest growth to derive effective refugia characteristics by 2024. Insights will benefit the National Park Service and field of fire ecology through informed fire management protecting highly valued resources.

New understanding of how fire effects are changing is needed to balance fire risks and benefits, and inform a resist, adapt, or direct (RAD) framework.scientists from the university of wisconsin madison will investigate the 1988 fires for new understanding of forest conversion and use state-of-the-art models to determine whether strategically managing fire to protect seed sources could stop or slow forest conversion. The results will provide ecologically-based guidance for the parks to help them decide when to allow fire on the landscape VS. When to intervene in the coming decades when the possibility of too much rather than too little fire looms on the horizon. This study will also explore what plant communities and fuel beds take the place of forests when tree regeneration falters, and whether fire management strategies such as managing for fire refugia could slow or stop forest loss.summary of project specific activities:this research project takes a two-pronged approach to investigate the ecological consequences of the 1988 wildfires in some areas of the yellowstone ecosystem. These areas burned over 30 years ago, but new tree growth is minimal or absent in some areas. Scientists will visit these areas to collect data that will help understand the fire regime of high elevation forests and predict future fire effects. They will then use computer modelling to demonstrate an approach to mitigate future forest losses using fuels treatments and fire suppression to protect key forest seed sources and habitats to perpetuate tree regeneration. The following questions will be addressed with both field and modeling studies that build on a long history of research in the GYE by the university of wisconsin scientists.question 1: what are the ecological consequences of postfire forest conversion?question 2: what are the potential benefits of managing for fire refugia?performance goals including milestones and expected outcomes:the following project outcomes and dates will be completed as part of this research project:field studies will be completed to determine if post-1988 burned forests in the yellowstone area that do not appear to have tree cover decades later have been converted to non-forested communities for the foreseeable future. Data will be collected from at least 60 plot locations (summer 2022). Analysis of field data will predict and describe the future vegetation communities and potential fire regimes that are expected to take the place of these former forests (2022-2023). Potential fire refugia will be located and mapped with the assistance of park fire managers to test whether strategic fuel breaks that preserve islands of unburned forests can mitigate habitat losses with increased fire disturbances on the landscape (2022). Computer simulation of forest growth and disturbance will allow comparison of the long-term rates of forest decline in landscapes with and without these protected forest patches in a variety of spatial patterns. Characteristics that produce the most effective refugia will be derived (2022-2024).beneficiaries:the results of this study will provide insights for climate change adaptation for both the national park service and the field of fire ecology. These benefits will be transferred to the american public though informed fire management that protects highly values resources and natural processes for future generations to enjoy.