Identifying past and future climate change refugia for midwestern birdsproject dates: 9 1 2024 through 8 31 2026AWARD purpose: the emergence of novel environmental threats, ranging from habitat loss…

This Cooperative Agreement award from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CFDA 15.820) program will fund a $414,271 assessment of climate-mediated range shifts to evaluate the refugial capacity of protected areas for birds in the Upper Great Lakes region. The University of Minnesota, as the prime awardee, will subaward to the University of Wisconsin-Madison to execute the research objectives.

The key expected outcomes include analyzing long-term range shifts to identify bird species most impacted by climate change, evaluating how protected areas mediate colonization and extinction dynamics, modeling climate suitability for species and communities under different future scenarios, and providing area-specific portfolios to inform management priorities. The project will produce site-specific assessments of protected areas, evaluate the efficacy of protected area approaches for reducing bird vulnerability to climate change, and deliver a regional assessment of vulnerable bird species, areas, and the ability of protected areas to preserve biodiversity. These research findings are intended to benefit resource managers, private organizations, government agencies, researchers, and the public.

Activities

The recipient will conduct a first-ever assessment of climate-mediated range shifts to evaluate the refugial capacity of protected areas for birds throughout the upper great lakes region. Deliverables and expected outcomes: expected outcomes include: 1) analyze long-term range shifts to identify which birds are most impacted by climate change 2) evaluate if and how protected areas mediate colonization and extinction dynamics for multiple species and communities 3) model climate suitability for a diversity of species and communities under different future emission and land use scenarios 4) provide area-specific portfolios of those species and guilds that are likely to become more or less common in the future to inform management priorities. The recipient will produce site-specific assessments of protected areas for resource management partners to guide future monitoring and prioritize areas for management. The recipient will also evaluate the efficacy of protected area approaches for reducing the vulnerability of birds to modern climate change through the midwest. Finally, the recipient will produce a regional assessment of which birds are the most vulnerable to climate change, where these changes are occurring, which areas are most responsible for protecting bird populations, and whether protected areas have and will continue to preserve biodiversity in an ERA of rapid environmental change. Intended beneficiary(IES): resource managers, private organizations, government agencies, researchers, the public.

Subrecipient activities

The university of minnesota will subaward to the university of wisconsin-madison to execute the research objectives of this project.