Project abstract summaryproject title: emergent threats from the interactions of heat extremes and wildland fire across alaskaproject dates: 9 1 2024 through 8 31 2026AWARD purpose: the boreal…

This Cooperative Agreement award from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CFDA #15.820) program provides $498,897 to the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2026. The project aims to increase awareness and resilience to the interactions of heat extremes and wildland fire in Alaska by: 1) characterizing recent extreme fire seasons, 2) producing seasonal forecasts of fire risk, and 3) projecting future fire weather and extreme scenarios. Key deliverables include an interactive seasonal fire forecast model, a project story map and fact sheets, fire season webinars, and peer-reviewed publications. The products will be integrated into fire management planning and community health communications to support climate adaptation in Alaska.

Activities

This project has three primary objectives, which are to 1) increase awareness of the interactions of heat extremes and wildland fire by characterizing recent extreme fire seasons with historical climatologies, trends, and return intervals of fire- and health-relevant indicators, 2) enhance climate resilience to wildfire by improving the ability to prepare for severe seasons by producing seasonal forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and area burned, and 3) facilitate climate adaptation by production decadal-scale projections of fire weather indices and extreme scenarios.deliverables and expected outcomes: this project will respond to a range of needs in both fire management and environmental health in alaska. Results from the activities performed will be housed online and include an interactive seasonal forecast model of area burned, a project story map and fact sheets that narrate the time evolution of recent extreme fire years, their impacts, and connect these events with climate change indicators and projections, as well as links to fire season webinars and scientific publications from this research. The fire season webinars will be scheduled in the spring and summer of each year and will provide attendees with the latest seasonal forecasts from the forecast tool, general science updates from the project, and offer the project team an opportunity to solicit feedback from outside experts. The scientific publications will describe the seasonal forecast tool, as well as case studies of the 2019 and 2022 fire seasons, and projections of fire weather indices and extreme scenarios informed by these past events.intended beneficiary(IES): deliverables from this project will be designed for integration into fire management planning and adaptation efforts, for example, into the monthly fire potential outlook from the alaska interagency coordination center and into communications from the institute for circumpolar health studies at the university of alaska anchorage. Direct engagement with public and scientific audiences is planned at annual meetings, including the fall fire review hosted by the alaska interagency coordinator center, the alaska forum on the environment, and the western alaska interdisciplinary science conference.

Subrecipient activities

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