Project abstract summaryproject title: predicting interactions between demographic change, climate adaptations, and conservation actions across the U.S. Caribbeanproject dates: 8 1 2024 through 7 31…

This is a 2-year, $369,330 Cooperative Agreement awarded by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CFDA 15.820) program. The project aims to develop a geospatial land change model that can accurately simulate future urbanization patterns in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, despite population decline driven by economic and climate stressors in these regions.

The key activities and deliverables under this award include: (1) co-producing the land change model with stakeholder input to forecast development under climate change scenarios, (2) evaluating the feasibility and tradeoffs of adaptation and conservation strategies, and (3) synthesizing and communicating findings to inform decision-making by policy makers and resource managers. The project involves collaboration between North Carolina State University, the University of Puerto Rico Humacao, and Boston University, who will leverage the open-source Future Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES 3.0) model and engage regional stakeholders through interviews, workshops, and scenario planning exercises.

Activities

A collaborative, participatory modeling approach will bring together scientists, communicators, and practitioners to (1) CO-produce a land change model that can simulate future scenarios of urbanization and adaptation in response to climate hazards across PR and usvi (2) evaluate the ecological and socio-economic feasibility and tradeoffs of climate-adaptation and conservation strategies and (3) synthesize and communicate findings to inform decision-making. This project will engage stakeholders in interviews, focus groups, listening sessions, participatory workshops, and conference calls. These conversations will guide the selection and use of data and contextual information, shape modeling decisions, and formulate scenarios of regionally relevant land change and conservation. The recipient will leverage recent advances in the open source future urban-regional environment simulation (futures 3.0) to model the interactions between urbanization and adaptive responses to climate change. Stakeholder input will guide the development of new methods to integrate economic forcings into the calibration and validation components of the futures framework. Stakeholders will also CO-design what-if scenarios of future land change to evaluate the feasibility and tradeoffs of different adaptation decisions and policies.deliverables and expected outcomes: upon project completion, stakeholders will gain access to data and findings that predict future development hotspots. They will also learn about high-priority conservation areas most at risk of development and areas expected to experience the most out-migration. Project outcomes will be made publicly accessible through software releases, data releases, open access publications and documentation, and webinars.intended beneficiary(IES): this work is highly relevant for stakeholders including policy makers and resource managers involved in managing protected areas, climate adaptation, and land-use planning across governmental and non-governmental entities at federal and local levels.

Subrecipient activities

The north carolina state university will subaward to the university of puerto rico humacao and boston university to collaboratively execute the research objectives of this project.