Atmospheric rivers and downslope winds as tollgates of aridification in the southwest: impacts on water resources and wildfire managementproject dates: 3 1 2024 - 2 28 2027AWARD purpose: in the…

The University of Arizona, as the prime recipient of Cooperative Agreement G24AC00080 from the U.S. Geological Survey's National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CFDA 15.820) program, will execute a $349,400 research project titled "Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds as Tollgates of Aridification in the Southwest: Impacts on Water Resources and Wildfire Management." The project aims to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on precipitation patterns, drought, and downslope wind activity in the southwestern U.S. and translate this scientific understanding into actionable insights for water resource and wildfire management. Key activities include analyzing historical and projected climate data, elucidating the role of atmospheric rivers and downslope winds, and engaging with state and tribal stakeholders. The University of California, San Diego and University of California, Los Angeles will serve as sub-recipients to support the research objectives. The project period runs from March 1, 2024 to February 28, 2027.

Activities

The recipient will assess the long-term changing seasonality of precipitation from ARS and other storms over the west drought fire risk and downslope wind activity and connection to impacts on water resources and wildfire management. They will analyze several decades of observations and high-resolution dynamical model RE-analyses as well as new loca downscaling of projected precipitation, temperature, wind, and humidity from CMIP6 model ensembles. They will elucidate historical and future ARS and the precipitation they deliver and investigate the occurrence of downslope winds and will focus on fall season precipitation changes and specifically on the start of the wet season as that, together with downslope wind activity, determines coastal wildfire activity. Furthermore, they will analyze santa ANA and diablo winds from new super-high resolution downscaling of observations and projections to inform where fire management resources need to be prioritized.deliverables and expected outcomes: CO-produced articles and presentations to professional and stakeholder groups workshops for best practices in water and wildfire management in the evolving context of the southwests changing climate. Information learned from stakeholders (e.g., community members, tribes, land management agencies) regarding land management needs pertaining to hydroclimate variability and downslope winds across the fire weather spectrum will be incorporated into all outcomes.intended beneficiary(IES): a) water resource managers in sierra nevada and colorado river watersheds: california department of water resources and southern nevada water authority and the ecosystems, inhabitants, farmers and ranchers of the region affected by water resource planning decisions. B) wildfire and ecosystem management across the SW will benefit via ongoing user needs assessment and engagement activities with various tribal and community partners via user needs meteorologist in the NOAA fire weather testbed. The project team will also further develop direct local engagement with the pala band of mission indians in SAN diego county and other tribal representatives via stakeholder engagement workshops.

Subrecipient activities

The university of arizona will subaward to the university of california SAN diego (ucsd) and the university of california LOS angeles (ucla) to execute the research objectives of this project. This is a multicampus collaboration between ucsd scripps and ucla.