Improvement of drought prediction model through sensitivity analysis ofpredictor variableproject dates: 1 1 2024 through 6 30 2025AWARD purpose: the impacts of drought are extensive and negatively…

The University of Oklahoma, through its Office of Research Administration, was awarded a $159,645 Cooperative Agreement by the U.S. Geological Survey's Office of Acquisitions and Grants under the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers (NRCASC) program. The project aims to improve an existing drought prediction model for Oklahoma Climate Division 8 (South-Central Oklahoma), which covers part of the Chickasaw Nation's territory. Key activities include conducting a sensitivity analysis of the model's predictor variables, visualizing the model's sensitivity, and refining the model to enhance drought forecasting accuracy. The project will deliver a summary of key predictors, refined drought model forecasts, and an assessment of the model's improvement, as well as a peer-reviewed publication. The intended beneficiaries are water managers and stakeholders in the South-Central U.S. region. No subrecipient activities are mentioned in the award details provided.

Activities

The recipient will conduct the following activities: (1) create a control forecast by generating a drought forecast for a historical drought using the existing drought model for OK climate division 8 (south-central oklahoma) and the actual predictor values for that 18-month time period (2) determine the perturbation of each predictor variable, insert the perturbations one at a time through the model, and identify which predictor(s) has the most impact on the forecast (3) visualize the sensitivity of the model to changes in each predictor and use the insights from the sensitivity analysis to refine the model and (4) measure the drought forecast improvement.deliverables and expected outcomes: deliverables include (1) summary of predictors with significant impact on the model forecast, perturbations of all predictor variables during climate indices episodes and phases (2) forecast outcome of the refined drought model (3) assessment of model improvement (4) one peer-reviewed publication.intended beneficiary(IES): because of the statistical nature of the study and the focus on south-central oklahoma, collaboration will occur with managers at the chickasaw nation and their water-related partners (e.g., city of ADA, citizens for the protection of the arbuckle-simpson aquifer). The results of the project will aid in future development of drought predictions that can impact stakeholders across the south-central U.S.

Subrecipient activities

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