Predicting climate-change induced habitat shifts for big game species in new mexicoshifting patterns in temperature and rainfall related to climate change are expected to influence the distribution of…

This $386,050 Cooperative Agreement awarded by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (CFDA 15.664 - Fish and Wildlife Coordination and Assistance) to New Mexico State University (NMSU) supports a project to predict climate change-induced habitat shifts for big game species in New Mexico. The key objectives are to:

1. Estimate resource selection and population density of elk, mule deer, oryx, and pronghorn in representative ecoregions of New Mexico by fitting animals with GPS collars and deploying remote camera arrays.

2. Use bioclimatic models to predict changes in major vegetation types and combine this with habitat use and abundance data to forecast future distributions of the studied big game species.

The initial phase establishes monitoring on the San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, White Sands Missile Range, and Fort Bliss, fitting 20 oryx and 20 barbary sheep with GPS collars. Additional study areas and species will be incorporated as further funding is secured. This 3-year project awarded on January 1, 2024 aims to provide critical information to state and federal agencies for developing long-term wildlife management plans in response to climate change impacts.

Predicting climate-change induced habitat shifts for big game species in new mexicoshifting patterns in temperature and rainfall related to climate change are expected to influence the distribution of vegetation communities, which should result in corresponding shifts in wildlife species associated with these vegetation types. Big game species are important resources for citizens of new mexico because they provide for non-consumptive wildlife uses, hunting opportunities, as well as hunting-related revenues for state and federal management agencies and local communities. Therefore, understanding how climate-induced shifts in ecosystem conditions will influence the future distribution of the big game species is critical to the development of long-term management plans by state and federal agencies. This project proposes to estimate resource selection and density of select big game species (e.g., ELK, mule deer, oryx, pronghorn) in several study areas located in representative ecoregions of new mexico. We plan to fit several populations of each species with GPS collars to assess resource selection as well as establishing remote camera arrays to estimate density and abundance in each study area. Bioclimatic models will ultimately be used to predict changes in the distribution of major vegetation types and these data will then be combined with data on habitat selection and use, and population abundance density to predict future distribution of the study species over various time horizons. The initial phase of this project will establish remote camera arrays on SAN andres national wildlife refuge (sanwr), white sands missile range and fort bliss and to capture and fit 20 oryx and 20 barbary sheep with GPS collars. We will incorporate additional study areas and species as funding is secured.