In spite of intense study over more than forty years, many basic questions on the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (cmes) remain unsolved. This particularly refers to sympathetic…

This is a grant award to Predictive Science Incorporated, a for-profit research and analysis firm, from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Shared Services Center. The $212,477.56 grant supports research to understand the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), particularly sympathetic or multiple eruptions that occur in different locations over a short time period. The research aims to apply advanced modeling and analysis techniques to investigate the magnetic flux transfer and topological evolution of erupting solar configurations that can lead to these connected solar events. The grant does not have a set-aside designation. Predictive Science Inc. has previously served as a prime and subcontractor for federal agencies like NASA, the Department of the Air Force, and the Department of the Navy, providing magnetohydrodynamic modeling, analysis, and forecasting services related to space weather and solar phenomena.

In spite of intense study over more than forty years, many basic questions on the initiation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (cmes) remain unsolved. This particularly refers to sympathetic or multiple eruptions, which occur within a relatively short time at different, often widely separated, locations. Progress in understanding these phenomena has been made in recent studies of the 2010 august 1-2 cmes (schrijver & title 2011), to a large extent due to SDO/AIA observations now available. These sympathetic cmes were first investigated in our idealized magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model (t r k ET AL. 2011). The model was then substantiated (titov ET AL. 2012) and confirmed (mikic ET AL., 2011, 2013), using potential field source surface and MHD models, respectively, both more tightly constrained by observations, particularly, from soho/MDI and SDO/HMI. These studies demonstrated that the magnetic flux transfer between different topological domains of pseudo-streamer configurations likely played a key role in establishing a causal connection between the eruptions and the order in which they occur. Our developments provide a unique opportunity for a much deeper study, applying new advanced techniques that will allow US to: (i) construct pre-eruptive equilibria with multiple flux ropes (titov ET AL. 2014) and (II) analyze the 3D topological evolution of erupting configurations (titov 2007; titov ET. AL. 2008; titov ET AL. 2009). In this proposal, we seek to employ such techniques to pinpoint the conditions under which flux ropes can erupt sympathetically by investigating the magnetic flux transfer in conjunction with the evolving magnetic topology in such eruptions.