RPI_AK Risk Assessment Sole Source Justification.pdf

RESEARCH PLANNING, INC.

1121 Park Street Columbia, South Carolina, USA 29201 PH: (803) 256-7322 FAX: (803) 254-6445

18 May 2022

Sole-Source Justification for Comprehensive Oil Spill Risk Assessment for State of Alaska

Research Planning, Inc. (RPI) has proprietary work for this project. RPI was a key contractor for the 2013 report on Assessment of Marine Oil Spill Risk and Environmental Vulnerability for the State of Alaska, conducted for the Restoration Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The objectives of this risk analysis for NOAA were to determine the probabilities of spills occurring with respect to geographic region, oil type, and season, as well as the potential impacts from an oil spill, considering oil characteristics and the vulnerability of the state’s environmental resources. This assessment involved the development of a detailed model of region- and season-specific environmental vulnerability for Alaska, which was combined with spill incident rates and potential volumes of oil spills to construct the overall risk model and determine the regions/seasons of highest relative risk. All factors contributing to risk were assessed on a broad regional basis, considering the region of origination of a potential spill (rather than oil spill trajectory and fates). Figure 1 shows the extent of the study area for the NOAA report, divided into ecoregions.

The analysis also included an assessment of future relative risk for the year 2025, based on expected changes in oil spill likelihood and volume that might occur with changes in vessel traffic, oil exploration and production activities, and the regional economy. No future projections of environmental vulnerability were calculated for this project, as projecting future trends for environmental conditions (e.g., individual species’ distributions, shoreline location/type, and ice coverage) is inherently complex and uncertain, and was beyond the scope of the current project.

This prior work provides extensive cost-savings to the U.S. Coast Guard for their proposed study on the Comprehensive Oil Spill Risk Assessment for State of Alaska. RPI has already compiled information on sensitive species, their distribution, seasonality, and life history that are essential for conducting the risk assessment. RPI provides resources at risk assessments for 50-100 oil spills per year, as part of their contract with the Emergency Response Division; therefore they know what resources drive risk assessments.

Not only can RPI conduct this project cost effectively, they can also complete the work in a very timely manner.

RPI is a SBA-certified small, woman-owned business.

Sincerely, Jacqueline Michel, Ph.D.

President

Figure 1. The ecological regions considered in the analysis for NOAA.