PWS_Limited_Data_Forecasting_1_USMC_and_AF__Input.pdf

Performance Work Statement Title: Limited Data Forecasting Module Length: 3 hours Target Audience: Aerographer’s Mates and Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) Officers

Purpose: This module provides the knowledge, skills and ability to forecast meteorological information with limited data.

After completing this instruction, the learner will be able to do the following:

(Pre-deployment tasks)

1. Perform a detailed analysis of topographic features [using NGA topographical maps, ARCGIS Earth] impacting the local weather patterns including major terrain features:

a. Waterways (rivers, lakes, seas, oceans)

b. Dust source regions

c. Seasonal vegetation

d. Coastal dynamics (Sea Breeze and Land Breeze)

e. Funneling effects

f. Orographic effects

g. Shallow ground fog in the vicinity of river valleys

2. Develop/Obtain a seasonal outlook of climatological parameters for a specified area of operations. (sources include: FNMOC ACAF and products and services of the 14th Weather Squadron, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC))

a. Produce a seasonal outlook of the surface pressure.

b. Produce a seasonal outlook of the surface winds.

c. Produce a seasonal outlook of the surface temperature.

d. Produce a seasonal outlook of the cloud cover.

e. Produce a seasonal outlook of precipitation by type, amount and occurrence.

f. Produce a seasonal outlook of restrictions to visibility.

g. Produce a seasonal outlook of the significant waves heights.

h. Produce a seasonal outlook of the evaporative duct height.

(Deployment Tasks)

3. Analyze the current synoptic situation

a. Given a geostationary satellite image, analyze the upper-level long wave pattern.

b. Given a geostationary satellite image, analyze the synoptic pressure pattern using satellite imagery.

c. Given a geostationary satellite image, analyze cloud cover, ceiling height and tops using satellite imagery

d. Given a geostationary satellite image, analyze restrictions to visibility from satellite imagery.

e. Given a geostationary satellite image, annotate areas of precipitation from satellite imagery.

f. Given a geostationary satellite image, annotate by type and intensity, areas of potential icing and turbulence.

g. Identify areas of positive and negative vorticity on a satellite image.

4. Produce a planning forecast of synoptic scale environmental conditions using satellite imagery and current weather observations. (i.e., produce a 24-hour Horizontal Weather Depiction)

a. Given a geostationary satellite image, produce a planning forecast of the upper-level long wave pattern.

b. Given a geostationary satellite image, produce a planning forecast of the synoptic pressure pattern.

c. Given a geostationary satellite image, produce a planning forecast of cloud cover, ceiling height and tops using satellite imagery

d. Given a geostationary satellite image, produce a planning forecast of restrictions to visibility from satellite imagery.

e. Given a geostationary satellite image, produce a planning forecast of areas of precipitation from satellite imagery.

5. Apply knowledge of weather observations to create a map of the synoptic pattern.

6. Utilize weather observations as predictive indicators using “rules of thumb”.

a. Recognize the different cloud formations and the associated weather patterns that produce the cloud types.

1) Fair weather conditions

2) Indicators of worsening weather

3) Indicators of clearing weather

4) Likelihood of rain or snow

5) Falling temperature

6) Rising temperature

7) Fog

b. Discuss lead times prior to frontal passage based upon cloud types and “invading” layers.

7. Forecasting of other weather elements with limited data:

a. Thunderstorm distances

b. Atmospheric stability

c. Visibility forecasting using wind speed

8. Estimate the relative humidity at 850, 700, 500, and 400mb utilizing decision trees (AWS Methods of Single Station and Limited Analysis and Forecasting – 15 Aug 85).

9. Estimate the wind speed and direction according to the descriptive terms in the Beaufort Wind Table (AWS Methods of Single Station and Limited Analysis and Forecasting – 15 Aug 85).

10. Determine wind speed and direction aloft from cloud motion (AWS Methods of Single Station and Limited Analysis and Forecasting – 15 Aug 85).

11. Briefly discuss the augmentation and refinement of a weather forecast with alternate data sources: indigenous radar, aircraft reports, HF Weather Facsimile (WEFAX), Radio teletype (RTTY) data, reconnaissance reports.

12. In addition to the CBT content, produce .pdf file (addendum to the module) quick reference guides that outline the limited data forecasting techniques for use as downloaded job procedure sheets.