Justification and Approval_as posted.pdf

JUSTIFICATION FOR OTHER THAN FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION

1. Nature and/or Description of Action

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) contracting activity proposes to procure without using full and open competition continued enhancements to and services from the Comprehensive National Incident Management System (CNIMS), Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (hereafter referred to as “Virginia Tech”).

2. Description of the Supplies/Services Required

This is a follow-on effort to work accomplished under DTRA contract HDTRA1-07-C-0113.

The CNIMS program is intended to provide a decision-support capability that’s adaptable to a broad range of possible national (very large) scale crisis events using primary, secondary and tertiary effects to determine recommendations for courses of action. The infrastructures involved include the 18 listed by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS); e.g. power, communication, transportation, and health. DTRA requires the capability to conduct analyses on the full-breath of effects from Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) incidents, to include secondary and tertiary order effects. Additionally, DTRA’s Reachback must have the capability to analyze, compare, and recommend courses of action to best respond to and mitigate effects.

This capability is necessary to provide course-of-action analysis support for Combatant Commands (COCOM) in the areas of targeting WMD (minimizing collateral effects), contingency planning, foreign consequence management and support to domestic incidents;

interagency departments (e.g. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) and DHS);

and first responders (e.g. National Guard Bureau WMD Civil Support Teams).

This effort will explore, develop, and incorporate (1) Methods to combine simulation-generated expectations with evidence from individual noisy and sparse sensor or surveillance information sources, thereby increasing the classification sensitivity of a sensor/surveillance suite; (2) Methods to take complex system state estimates as inputs and support human mediated and/or automatic context-based system-management decision making; (3) High Performance Computing and modeling technologies to represent large-scale socio-technological systems.; (4) Adapt newly emerging technologies and investigate new methods, when necessary, to achieve the desired level of analytical capability; and (5) Additional capabilities in support of Reachback, COCOMs, local state, and first responders. This effort will also (1) Employ newly developed and updates to existing epidemiological models for operational support; (2) Update and employ the synthetic population for CONUS and OCONUS as well as military bases; and

(3) Explore and incorporate methods in support of DTRA’s effort to design, analyze, and deploy resilient integrated communication networks.

Defense Threat Reduction Agency

8725 John J. Kingman Drive, MS 6201

Ft. Belvoir, VA 22060-6201

Virginia Tech’s CNIMS is the only such application found to support these requirements. It is suitable for adaptation to a broad range of possible national-scale crisis events. CNIMS applies high-performance computational methods to support situational assessments, cued sensing and surveillance of complex events, and course-of-action (CoA) analyses in near-real time for such events as pandemic influenza. The system includes exploration of user accessible, high performance computation-based co-evolving informatic tools within applications supporting analysts, planners, and warfighters. It focuses on decision support and related informatics for complex systems and environments as well as a user-oriented, distributed services approach and architecture. It has the capability to represent hundreds of millions of individual entities interacting with each other, each moving among millions of locations in hundreds of communities/regions possessing interdependent critical infrastructures. It supports the operational needs of decision makers at various levels.

This requirement will be implemented as a single source Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract with an ordering period of 5 years for task orders, which can in turn be executed for performance of no more than 1 year beyond the ordering period. The IDIQ ceiling will be $39M, which will address task orders for a total estimated $25M for R&D tasks, $1M for O&M systems administration (1 FTE), and “surge” tasks of up to $13M R&D.

3. Statutory Authority

The statutory authority for this non-competitive action is: 10 United States Code (U.S.C.)

2304(c)(1) or 41 U.S.C. 253(c)(1), as implemented by Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 6.302-1, Only One Responsible Source.

4. Applicability of Authority

DTRA’s minimum needs for this program can only be satisfied by unique services available from only one source.

Only Virginia Tech displayed the necessary experience in all required critical co-evolving infrastructures, social and physical, and their inter-dependencies. Virginia Tech is a knowledgeable and experienced performer in all of the critical co-evolving infrastructures, social and physical, and their interdependencies. They have proven their capability in course-of-action decision analysis as related to primary, secondary and tertiary dynamic effects as related to the infrastructures and their interdependencies. Virginia Tech, through their Bioinformatics Institute, conducts research and development efforts centering on understanding host-pathogen-environmental interactions by using an integrated approach including genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, computer modeling, and advanced analytic tools. Virginia Tech has a state-of-the-art research staff; their dynamic and diverse facilities offer capabilities that are one of a kind in the field of host-pathogen-environmental interactions. Their Core Computational Facility and Core Laboratory Facility provide advanced lab instrumentation and superior, high capacity computational services that, combined with their knowledge and expertise, ensure the ability to carry out the program’s objectives.

An important progression was Virginia Tech’s completion of a disaggregate representation of the population and activity structure of the continental US (CONUS). This representation of the US population serves as an operational basis for pandemic influenza spread for military and civilians and is useful for rapidly developing methods that would otherwise not be possible. Its unique representation is an important element of success to this program.

Additionally, as this is a follow-on contract with the original source, Virginia Tech, for the continued provision of highly specialized services, the CNIMS, award to any other source would result in substantial duplication of cost to DTRA that is not expected to be recovered through competition. Considering the cost to date to gather requirements, design and code the system, gather and populate data into the system, locate, hire, and fund subject matter expertise, to bring a new vendor into CNIMS development would require much of the ground work and development to be reaccomplished. DTRA has received intrinsic value from the research and development completed to date, progress that can carry forward into the follow-on contract.

Given the current investment of $16.5M and omitting $5.5M of such costs as information assurance, equipment purchases, and maintenance results in an estimated $11M in R&D of cost that would have to be duplicated, at least in part, to bring DTRA to the level of capability it has progressed to. Furthermore, the program schedule would lengthen significantly and could nearly double the time and effort to meet program goals and objectives that could otherwise be accomplished under the existing framework.

5. Effort to Solicit Potential Sources

The contract specialist posted a Sources Sought (number TSD109919796) on Fed Biz Opps, 27 Jul 10 for responses NLT 09 Sep 10. Sixteen companies (one of which was an information only response for unrelated services), one national laboratory, one university (the incumbent), and one individual responded to the posting.

6. Fair and Reasonable Costs

The anticipated cost/price of this contract action to the Government will be determined to be fair and reasonable based on cost and price analysis to include field pricing support, input/evaluation from the project office, comparison with historical hardware and software purchases, and certified cost and pricing data. The final cost is not expected to exceed $39,000,000.

7. Market Research

Market research was conducted through a 2010 Sources Sought. Analysis of responses did not reflect any other than the incumbent as fully addressing the Sources Sought requirements, displaying knowledge in all critical co-evolving infrastructures, social and physical, and their interdependencies as well as course-of-action decision analyses. No other source addressed as adequately such areas as integrated agent-based modeling, course-of-action planning, infrastructure linkage and effects, experience with very large system-of-systems (hundreds of millions of entities), and scalability from small (tactical) to very large systems. All core technical work (e.g. infrastructure modeling) would need to be developed, integrated, and tested.

8. Other Facts

In past years, DTRA participated with NORTHCOM and PACOM to review potential vendors;

NORTHCOM’s Surgeon General Staff concluded that Virginia Tech’s methodology was the most robust. DTRA also selected Virginia Tech as the only qualified vendor for its initial CNIMS contract. Factors supporting this decision include:

Modeling of Infectious Disease Analysis Study (MIDAS). The National Institutes of Health (NIH) was tasked to develop a national capability to numerically estimate the spread of infectious disease, given the emphasis at that time on pandemic influenza or Avian Flu. DTRA reviewed each of the providers for numerical competence and technical methodologies. Only one MIDAS provider had numerically robust computational code suitable for the DoD utilization: Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech was found to be developing numerical methods necessary for the work that is asked of DTRA, i.e., the capability to identify an infectious disease as it spreads among a given population. Additionally, Virginia Tech technologies and scientists, previously funded by Los Alamos National Lab, carried out efforts regarding agent-based modeling, resulting in “EpiSims,” which simulates the consequences of assumptions about human contact patterns and disease natural history, including transmission. Virginia Tech provided DTRA with interdepartmental acceptance from NIH’s MIDAS and previous Department of Energy (DoE) programs.

Numerical Methodologies. Of the MIDAS and other reviewed vendors available, most groups were conducting epidemiological curve fits of 1918 Spanish Flu outbreaks with rudimentary techniques. With the exception of Virginia Tech, the other methodologies were glorified spreadsheets, using only limited network analysis techniques. Conversely, Virginia Tech presented a full “Simfrastructure” capability that estimated each person’s movement and interaction with others. This numerical engine was easily tuned for specific disease transmission parameters in an operational mode. Only the Virginia Tech numerical methodology was found to be robust and suitable for operational use.

Transportation Simulation. A key element of estimating the spread of infectious disease is how people move around and who they interact with. Virginia Tech personnel participated in the Department of Transportation’s transportation simulation development program. This capability contains detailed estimations of CONUS population movements on all modes of transportation.

The transportation simulation is integrated within Virginia Tech’s computational tool and provides full operational estimation of interstate and intrastate transit from cars, planes, trains, and ships. Virginia Tech is the only vendor to integrate such a capability into the simfrastructure of co-evolving infrastructures.

Cellular Grids. Another key element for course-of-action planning is the functionality of cellular grids, where bottlenecks may occur, and how to communicate if one or more grids become dysfunctional. Virginia Tech personnel have created a cellular grid simulation program that will soon be implemented into the CNIMS capability. This capability contains detailed estimations of CONUS population cellular grids. The cellular grid simulation will be integrated within Virginia Tech’s computational tool set capability and therefore shall provide full operational estimation of cellular communication interactions from functional to completely dysfunctional.

Virginia Tech is the only vendor to integrate such a capability into the simfrastructure of co-evolving infrastructures.

Electrical Grids. Another key element for course-of-action planning is the functionality of electrical grids, where bottlenecks may occur, and what would happen if a grid became unusable and power was lost. Virginia Tech personnel have created an electrical grid simulation program that will soon be implemented into the CNIMS capability. This capability contains detailed estimations of CONUS population electrical grids. The electrical grid simulation will be integrated within Virginia Tech’s computational tool set capability and therefore shall provide full operational estimation of electrical grids from functional to complete loss of power.

Virginia Tech is the only vendor to integrate such a capability into the simfrastructure of co-evolving infrastructures.

DoD Familiarity. Virginia Tech’s workforce includes personnel with in-depth experience regarding these areas (Epidemiology, Cellular and Electrical Grids, Transportation, etc) with the background and understanding of specific problem sets that DTRA may encounter. Virginia Tech, since working these issues, has a vast knowledge of DoD intricacies and needs for modeling and simulation of critical infrastructures. Of the multiple vendors in both industry and academia conducting robust numerical modeling, only Virginia Tech had previous experience working with DoD, DoE, USNORTHCOM, and Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), including classified capabilities in the event of a national crisis.

9. Interested Sources

There were eighteen interested sources based on the 2010 Sources Sought: Accenture, Alion, Applied Research Associates, Brogden Enterprises, CUBRC Inc, CEO of Emergency Management Professionals, Five9 Network Systems LLC, ITT Corporation, Noblis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Previstar, Priority 5, Quadelta, Quantum Leap, Shoreland, Science Applications International Corporation, SRA International, and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and University.

10. Subsequent Actions

Although progress has been made through the initial contract, the requirement remains to continue development of an adaptive network computational system, employing intelligence brokers to search, manage, and if required, calculate the necessary information to set up agent-based modeling computations. As science matures, and data becomes available, as much as possible will be implemented. CNIMS is still in a research and development environment and, as such, spiral development will continue. The software and hardware are designed to work in concert as a system and to meet capability requirements; lifecycle replacement will be competed separately at the component level and provided as Government-furnished equipment to the contractor. For hardware, this has been and remains a 3-year cycle. DTRA will seek to obtain sufficient rights to software which, in conjunction with the maturing system, will aid in openly competing CNIMS in any future efforts. As it becomes fully operational, maintenance and systems administration will continue to be included.

Contracting Officer Certification

I certify that this justification is accurate and complete to the best of my knowledge and belief.

_____ Signed ____________________ ______3/3/11______ Contracting Officer Date