A2_12_PWS_ClimateAnalysis_1.pdf

PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT

CalSim Climate Analysis

August 2, 2023

1.0 SCOPE

The objective of this contract is to acquire contractor services to improve knowledge about climate change to facilitate Central Valley Project (CVP) adaption.

1.2 BACKGROUND

The Reclamation Central Valley Project (CVP) extends four hundred miles north to south across the heart of California, consisting of six major storage facilities and numerous other smaller facilities.

Although the facilities are cooperatively managed for multiple benefits, the primary goals of the project are water delivery and environmental compliance. Estimating water availability for these uses is complicated by the geographic extents of the project, the number/diversity of facilities, Federal partnership with the California State Water Project (SWP), and the multitude of environmental regulations that must be satisfied. The project has therefore relied heavily on the CalSim model which describes both the CVP/SWP infrastructure and management requirements as well as facilitating application of those constraints to new hydrological conditions. The model is applied annually to determine water availability and allocations across uses. However, as climate change becomes more prominent and future water management under climate change must be determined, the current CalSim forcings must be updated to provide useful information about future system management scenarios.

The current implementation of CalSim 3 is best suited to stationary environment with limited hydrologic changes. CalSim simulates the operation of CVP/SWP facilities in the Central Valley and yields estimates of river flows, reservoir releases, and reservoir storage. These values, in turn, are used across a broader set of models for river and reservoir temperatures that also affect project management.

The CalSim period of record consists of 100 years of historic hydrology beginning from Water Year 1922. As facility or management changes are proposed, these changes are added to the CalSim model and ran against the historic ensemble to determine their impact. However, this process largely does not address climate affects. The years represent historical conditions only take into account climate nonstationary to the extent is directly reflected in that coverage period. The historic ensemble must therefore either be adjusted to representative of future climate or be extended with ensemble members that reflect the range of future climate conditions. The time and effort required to produce such a climate adjusted hydrologic ensemble has limited the use of climate change studies using CalSim. The climate derived inputs would be generated from both the GCM derived estimates for CMIP6 as well as weather generator-based statistics. These will be carried through the streamflow temperature and TDM processes to inform decision making efforts.

The capability to produce climate informed CalSim inputs will be used to conduct the analyses required to support the DMDU analyses that necessitate being able to look at a broad range of factors and changes within the CVP. The earlier tool development steps are therefore an enabling capability required for the CVP to look at decision sensitivities to climate change.

The pieces of this projected are expected to involve some iteration as illustrated below:

2.0 REFERENCES - The following list of documents are required in the performance of this contract:

Number

Title and Edition

Date

Source

01 Latest CalSim Model Most Recent 800 Division, Bay Delta Office, Bureau of Reclamation or Denver Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation

02 Latest DSM2 Model Most Recent 800 Division, Bay Delta Office, Bureau of Reclamation or Denver Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation

03 Latest SCHISM Model Most Recent 800 Division, Bay Delta Office, Bureau of Reclamation or Denver Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation

04 Latest WTMP Model Most Recent 800 Division, Bay Delta Office, Bureau of Reclamation or Denver Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation

05 CMIP6 Data Most Recent 800 Division, Bay Delta Office, Bureau of Reclamation or Denver Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation

06 Weather Generator To Be Developed

800 Division, Bay Delta Office, Bureau of Reclamation or Denver Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation or California Department of Water Resources.

3.0 TASKS - The contractor shall perform the following tasks:

1. Project Management, Meetings, and Coordination

2. CMIP6 Modeling Suite

3. Weather Generator Modeling Suite

4. Understand Inflow to Reservoirs

5. [Optional] Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU)

6. Data Management and Documentation

3.1 Project Management, Meetings, and Coordination

The Contractor shall liaise with Reclamation technical staff on an as needed basis, within a week of requested update during the course of the task order to coordinate tasks, resources and activities, and review progress and schedule. Additional communications shall be required to exchange information for billing and invoicing as needed.

3.1.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Summaries of requested progress meetings. Invoices and progress reports on an agreed upon schedule, no less than quarterly.

• Due Date: Performance period of the task order.

3.2 CMIP6 Modeling Suite

Consideration of climate change within the Reclamation modeling suite necessitates converting the output of the GCMs used to estimate future climate to model inputs. Task level of effort, division of labor between Contractor, Reclamation, and/or other parties, model choice, and script and/or code language will be coordinated with Reclamation.

3.2.1 CMIP6 GCM Access, Selection, and Preparation

Under this task, the Contractor shall assist Reclamation technical staff in creating an automated workflow to convert the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) Localized Analog (LOCA) downscaled GCMs to model inputs. Climate inputs to be developed for two period changes.

This work will be based on the workflow developed for the development of the CMIP5 dataset using the scenario-based approach and will comprise the following steps:

• Download the downscaled CMIP6 ensemble members

• Assist Reclamation in GCM Selection

• Clip the national GCM files to the CalSim 3, HEC-5Q and/or WTMP, and DSM2 and/or SCHISM input domains

3.2.2 CalSim 3

Based on the work under Task 3.2.1, Contractor shall prepare CalSim 3 inputs and run CalSim 3. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Calculate temperature deviation between the historical CalSim period and predicted future conditions

• Calculate precipitation deviation between the historical CalSim period and predicted future conditions

• Collect Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models for each CalSim watershed basin

• Validate VIC model parametrizations for each CalSim watershed basin

• Apply the predicted temperature/precipitation deviations as to the input VIC grids

• Solve the VIC models

• Reformat the VIC streamflow predictions and meteorology as inputs into CalSim 3

• Run CalSim 3 with the revised inputs

• Apply second order corrections to the CalSim inputs to remove residual biases to the VIC output

• Validation of workflow against previous climate change input development

3.2.3 WTMP and TDM

Based on the work under Task 3.2.1 and 3.2.2, Contractor shall prepare WTMP inputs and run WTMP.

Contractor shall also develop tools to prepare and update climate change inputs for TDM. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Develop tools to standardize preparing and updating climate change inputs for the WTMP model

• Validate and confirm that the tools are generating accurate WTMP inputs, and the process is reproducible

• Coordinate with WTMP Maintenance Team

• Update temperature model inputs

• Solve temperature model

• Validation of workflow against previous climate change development

• Update TDM model inputs

• Solve TDM model

• Validation of workflow against previous climate change development

3.2.5 DSM2 and/or SCHISM

Based on the work under Task 3.2.1 and 3.2.2, Contractor shall prepare DSM2 and/or SCHISM inputs and run DSM2 and/or SCHISM. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Update hydrodynamic model inputs to account for climate change

• Solve hydrodynamic model

3.2.6 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Interim copies of R and/or Python scripts being developed under this contract to be made available within 3 business days of Reclamation request for review. Final R and/or Python scripts for each task step and documentation. Documentation to include comments in code and documentation showing workflow validation. Interim and final scripts and/or code, models, results, all run data, and documentation shall be made available to Reclamation via secure online platform (like SharePoint).

• Due Date: Performance period of the task order; within 3 business days for draft interim copies of models, code and/or scripts, results and documentation

3.3 Weather Generator Modeling Suite

The Weather Generator will be further developed in combination with DWR and Reclamation to produce a generalizable tool. The Contractor shall begin from the existing system, as developed by DWR, making modifications and improvements as appropriate. The Contractor shall assist Reclamation technical staff in development and review of the tool and in using the tool to develop and run the modeling suite. Task level of effort, division of labor between Contractor, Reclamation, and/or other parties, model choice, and script and/or code language will be coordinated with Reclamation.

3.3.1 Weather Generator Development Support and Selection

Under this task, the Contractor shall assist Reclamation and DWR technical staff in producing and reviewing the Weather Generator. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Support, as requested, in developing and reviewing the Weather Generator

• Assist Reclamation in selection on Weather Generator scenarios used to develop climate scenario for modeling suite

• Additional processing of Weather Generator outputs to prepare as inputs to CalSim 3, HEC-5Q and/or WTMP, and DSM2 and/or SCHISM

3.3.2 CalSim 3

Based on the work under Task 3.3.1, Contractor shall prepare CalSim 3 inputs and run CalSim 3. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Calculate temperature deviation between the historical CalSim period and predicted future conditions

• Calculate precipitation deviation between the historical CalSim period and predicted future conditions

• Collect Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models for each CalSim watershed basin

• Validate VIC model parametrizations for each CalSim watershed basin

• Apply the predicted temperature/precipitation deviations as to the input VIC grids

• Solve the VIC models

• Reformat the VIC streamflow predictions and meteorology as inputs into CalSim 3

• Run CalSim 3 with the revised inputs

• Apply second order corrections to the CalSim inputs to remove residual biases to the VIC output

• Validation of workflow against previous climate change input development

3.3.3 WTMP and TDM

Based on the work under Task 3.3.1 and 3.3.2, Contractor shall prepare WTMP inputs and run WTMP.

Contractor shall also develop tools to prepare and update climate change inputs for TDM. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Using the process developed under 3.2.3, update temperature model inputs

• Solve temperature model

• Update TDM model inputs

• Solve TDM model

3.3.5 DSM2 and/or SCHISM

Based on the work under Task 3.3.1 and 3.3.2, Contractor shall prepare DSM2 and/or SCHISM inputs and run DSM2 and/or SCHISM. This work will comprise the following steps:

• Update hydrodynamic model inputs

• Solve hydrodynamic model

3.3.6 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Interim copies of R and/or Python scripts being developed under this contract to be made available within 3 business days of Reclamation request for review. Final R and/or Python scripts for each task step and documentation. Documentation to include comments in code and documentation showing workflow validation. Interim and final scripts and/or code, models, results, all run data, and documentation shall be made available to Reclamation via secure online platform (like SharePoint).

• Due Date: Performance period of the task order; within 3 business days for interim copies of R and/or Python scripts

3.4 Understand Inflow to Reservoirs

The Contractor shall review the performance of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model as directed by Reclamation. The review shall consider the hydrologic routing of the VIC model above CVP reservoirs with a focus on Shasta. Characteristics considered in the review will include but not be limited to the overall performance of the VIC model, the appropriateness of physical process representations within the model, and the sensitivity of both previous to climate change. The analysis may require modifying VIC, comparing VIC output to that of another model, or creating a first principal analysis, as is appropriate. The Contractor shall provide documentation of findings and recommendations from the review.

3.4.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: The contractor shall provide an analysis plan for preapproval by Reclamation.

Contractor shall provide documentation on the review and recommendations done under this contract. Interim and final products shall be made available to Reclamation via secure online platform (like SharePoint).

• Due Date: Performance period of the task order

3.5 [Optional] Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) The capability to produce climate informed model inputs will be used to explore DMDU approaches that evaluate operations across a broad range of factors and changes within the CVP. This process may build upon previous Reclamation DMDU work done within the Colorado River basin, adjusting for the features of the CVP. Additionally, other concepts from operations modeling literature may be incorporated to describe, model, and optimize complex systems. This will be a limited, exploratory effort to identify knowledge and capability gaps to inform subsequent efforts.

Contractor shall coordinate with Reclamation to develop describe DMDU approaches, identify modeling capability gaps, and prototype uncertainty visualizations from examples of DMDU principles within the CVP. Examples will include exploring objectives that trade off different features of system performance under various climate scenarios. This will necessitate construction of a modeling workflow that begins from a climate change scenario and carries it through to calculation of the system objectives. The workflow may require automation accelerate modeling across climate change scenarios building on the deliverables of 3.2 and 3.3.

3.5.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: To be coordinated upon Option award, but likely to include 1) consulting with the Reclamation review team about DMDU approaches, creating a development plan, implementing that development plan, and creating documentation of the conducted work.

Implementation may require generating examples of DMDU within the CVP, code and/or scripts, workflow, and validation, and results from DMDU.

• Due Date: Within 18 months of Option award or end of contract, whichever comes first.

3.6 Data Management and Documentation

The Contractor shall provide final data, models, scripts, and documentation developed under this contract. Documentation shall include comments within the developed code and/or scripts to explain the logic and requested memorandums. The Contractor agrees that all data, libraries, models, scripts, and documentation developed under this contract shall remain the property of Reclamation and releases all rights to said products.

The Contractor shall provide a secure online platform for Reclamation to access the final data, models, scripts, and documentation. Final data, models, scripts, and documentation shall be available on the shared drive through the end of the contract period.

3.6.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Contractor will provide final copies of the data, models, scripts, and documentation developed for the requested refinements on or before the termination of this contract. Final scripts and/or code shall include comments and output DSS files. Requested memorandums to be made available to Reclamation via secure online platform (like SharePoint).

• Due Date: Performance period of the task order.

4.0 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY

Task No.

Task Description

Performance

Indicator

Performance

Standard

Minimum Acceptable Quality

Level 01 Project

Management, Meetings, and Coordination

Coordination with Reclamation staff

Meetings within a week of request.

Regular (no less than quarterly) invoices and progress reports.

95% meeting requested meetings, invoices, and progress reports.

02 CMIP6 Modeling Suite

Modeling suite updated, run, validated, documented, and provided

Interim models made available within 3 business days of Reclamation request.

Product should be free from technical errors and contain accurate data as shown in validation reports.

All developed code and scripts to include 20% comments.

Logical interpretation of the data from the resulting product must be possible.

03 Weather Generator Modeling Suite

Modeling suite updated, run, validated, documented, and provided

Interim models made available within 3 business days of Reclamation request.

Product should be free from technical errors and contain accurate data as shown in validation reports.

All developed code and scripts to include 20% comments.

Logical interpretation of the data from the resulting product must be possible.

04 Understand Inflow to Reservoirs

Support provided Meetings/trainin gs within 2 weeks of request

Documentation delivered upon agreed schedules

Meetings and documentation delivered upon agreed schedules

05 [Optional] Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Workflow developed, run, validated, documented, and provided

Product should be free from technical errors and contain accurate data as shown in validation reports.

All developed code and scripts to include 20% comments.

Logical interpretation of the data from the resulting product must be possible.

06 Data Management and Documentation

Models and documentation made available to Reclamation

Product should be free from technical errors and contain accurate data.

Scripts and/or code, models, results, and documentation accessible to Reclamation.

Logical interpretation of the data from the resulting product must be possible.

Deliverables accessible to Reclamation.

5.0 DATA AND REPORTS - The contractor shall provide the following data and reports as follows:

Item No.

Description

Content

Format

Medium

Delivery

01 Summaries of progress meetings

See Task 1 Digital Email, MS Word, or

PDF

Email or upload to secure online platform

02 Invoices and Progress Reports

See Task 1 Digital Email, MS Word, or

PDF

Email or upload to secure online platform

03 CMIP6 model package

See Task 2 Digital Various Upload to secure online platform

04 Weather Generator model package

See Task 3 Digital Various Upload to secure online platform

05 Understand Inflow to Reservoirs

See Task 4 Digital MS Word or

PDF

Email or upload to secure online platform

06 DMDU See Task 5 Digital Various Upload to secure online platform

07 Data Management and Documentation

See Task 6 Digital Various Upload to secure online platform

The contractor performs this work under standard Federal Acquisition requirements. Additionally, as reasonable, and practicable, the contractor shall make efforts to follow open-source software development practices. Where open-source software development is not reasonable and practicable, the contractor shall structure software products to separate the encumbered software from the developed products to maximize the amount of software that may be released by Reclamation. If the encumberment results from intellectual property held by the contractor, the contractor shall provide a list of the retained intellectual property and evaluate the viability of relinquishing that intellectual property to Reclamation to support open-source development.

If any cloud computing services are needed to support the project, the Microsoft Azure architecture shall be utilized. This conforms with an existing Reclamation Authority to Operate (ATO) and supports Reclamation’s ability to operationalization any products from the effort.

Where reasonable and practicable, development efforts will be conducted in the Python programming language. Use of other computing languages must be approved by Reclamation on a case-by-case basis. Code should be well documented, consisting of documentation strings conforming to the Numpy style guidelines and line comments describing actions within the code. A conda environment file shall be included that documents the necessary software dependencies. Work shall be conducted in a git managed repository linked to a remote platform. Those repositories shall be shared with Reclamation prior to closeout. The contractor may also request Reclamation to create a repository for their use.