FormSF30_-_Amendment_1_-_16PBGC18R0010.pdf

Offers must acknowledge receipt of this amendment prior to the hour and date specified in the solicitation or as amended, by one of the following methods:

(a) By completing items 8 and 15, and returning or (c) By separate letter or electronic communication which includes a reference to the solicitation and amendment numbers. FAILURE OF YOUR ACKNOWLEDGMENT TO BE RECEIVED AT THE PLACE DESIGNATED FOR THE RECEIPT OF OFFERS PRIOR TO THE HOUR AND DATE SPECIFIED MAY RESULT IN REJECTION OF YOUR OFFER. If by virtue of this amendment you desire to change an offer already submitted, such change may be made by letter or electronic communication, provided each letter or electronic communication makes reference to the solicitation and this amendment, and is received prior to the opening hour and date specified.

E. IMPORTANT: Contractor is not is required to sign this document and return copies to the issuing office.

AMENDMENT OF SOLICITATION/MODIFICATION OF CONTRACT 1. CONTRACT ID CODE

2. AMENDMENT/MODIFICATION NUMBER 3. EFFECTIVE DATE 4. REQUISITION/PURCHASE REQUISITION NUMBER 5. PROJECT NUMBER (If applicable)

7. ADMINISTERED BY (If other than Item 6) CODE

STANDARD FORM 30 (REV. 11/2016)

Prescribed by GSA FAR (48 CFR) 53.243

FACILITY CODE

9A. AMENDMENT OF SOLICITATION NUMBER

9B. DATED (SEE ITEM 11)

10A. MODIFICATION OF CONTRACT/ORDER NUMBER

10B. DATED (SEE ITEM 13)

11. THIS ITEM ONLY APPLIES TO AMENDMENTS OF SOLICITATIONS

The above numbered solicitation is amended as set forth in Item 14. The hour and date specified for receipt of Offers is extended. is not extended.

12. ACCOUNTING AND APPROPRIATION DATA (If required) copies of the amendment; (b) By acknowledging receipt of this amendment on each copy of the offer submitted;

13. THIS ITEM APPLIES ONLY TO MODIFICATIONS OF CONTRACTS/ORDERS. IT MODIFIES THE CONTRACT/ORDER NUMBER AS DESCRIBED IN ITEM 14.

CHECK ONE A. THIS CHANGE ORDER IS ISSUED PURSUANT TO: (Specify authority) THE CHANGES SET FORTH IN ITEM 14 ARE MADE IN THE CONTRACT ORDER NUMBER

IN ITEM 10A.

B. THE ABOVE NUMBERED CONTRACT/ORDER IS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGES (such as changes in paying office, appropriation data, etc.) SET FORTH IN ITEM 14, PURSUANT TO THE AUTHORITY OF FAR 43.103(b).

C. THIS SUPPLEMENTAL AGREEMENT IS ENTERED INTO PURSUANT TO AUTHORITY OF:

D. OTHER (Specify type of modification and authority)

Except as provided herein, all terms and conditions of the document referenced in Item 9A or 10A, as heretofore changed, remains unchanged and in full force and effect.

15C. DATE SIGNED

15A. NAME AND TITLE OF SIGNER (Type or print)

16C. DATE SIGNED

16A. NAME AND TITLE OF CONTRACTING OFFICER (Type or print)

14. DESCRIPTION OF AMENDMENT/MODIFICATION (Organized by UCF section headings, including solicitation/contract subject matter where feasible.)

PAGE OF PAGES

6. ISSUED BY CODE

8. NAME AND ADDRESS OF CONTRACTOR (Number, street, county, State and ZIP Code) (X)

CODE

15B. CONTRACTOR/OFFEROR

(Signature of person authorized to sign)

16B. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

(Signature of Contracting Officer)

Previous edition unusable

Attachment Page

Statement of Objectives

I. Requirement Objectives:

The Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21, Pub. L. No. 112-141) was enacted on July 6, 2012. Section 40233(a) of MAP-21 requires the PBGC to contract with a capable agency or organization that is independent of the PBGC to conduct annual peer reviews of SE PIMS and ME

PIMS.

The objectives of the next peer review are to provide PBGC with a targeted peer review of the current modeling of bankruptcy and industry-wide clusters of bankruptcies, as well as contagion effects that might spread through the multiemployer pension system.0F

1 The objectives are not meant to be comprehensive with regard to SE or ME PIMS, but instead limited to bankruptcy and contagion and their effects on the models.

The contractor will evaluate the current SE PIMS modeling of bankruptcy and ME PIMS modeling of employer participation—meaning the willingness/ability of employers to remain contributing employers in multiemployer plans—in order to:

• Identify possible refinements to the current modeling and evaluate their effects and merits

• Identify alternatives to the current modeling and evaluate their effects and merits

• Identify data requirements for estimation of model parameters

• Provide recommendations, based substantially on empirical evidence, for actionable improvements to the current modeling, assistance with integrating selected improvements into the full SE PIMS and ME PIMS models and guidance for future parameter updates

Note that since both SE PIMS and ME PIMS are designed for analysis of risks to PBGC and the pension systems it insures, any modeling improvements should focus on factors affecting future pension liabilities, assets, and contribution requirements.

II. Bankruptcy:

The contractor shall provide actionable recommendations for analyzing and modeling the impact on plan sponsors (and the pension plans) for bankruptcies and clusters of bankruptcies (industry-specific shocks). These recommendations pertain primarily to SE PIMS, but include analysis of the merits of adding bankruptcy modeling to ME PIMS.

Recommendations for modeling improvements shall be based on criteria, including, but not limited to, the following:

• How realistically the modeling reflects relationships between pension plan contribution levels and plan sponsors’ (in the single-employer context) or significant contributing employers’ (in

1 Financial contagion generally refers to adverse market events transmitting further adverse effects to other sectors or participants. Contagion transmitted through the multiemployer system may involve the insolvency of one multiemployer plan causing or accelerating the insolvencies of other multiemployer plans that share contributing employers. Contagion may also occur when an employer who contributes to multiple plans goes bankrupt, causing or accelerating the insolvency of those plans. Similarly, an industry cluster of bankruptcies could also initiate contagion.

PAGE 2 OF 5 16PBGC18R00100001

the multiemployer context) financial strength and other factors, such as investment returns and market discount and borrowing rates.

• How realistically the models reflect interconnectedness or clustering (within industries, economic sectors, business cycles, etc.) of plan sponsors’ or contributing employers’ bankruptcies and employer participation changes.

• How realistically the model identifies how many and which of the plan sponsors experiencing bankruptcy will continue to sponsor their plans after reorganization rather than terminating their pension plans. Also, how realistically the modeling reflects the expected future bankruptcy rates of plan sponsors that continue to sponsor plans after reorganization (SE PIMS only).

• The ability of the modeling to provide reasonable measures of bankruptcy probabilities for non-publicly traded pension plan sponsors such as privately held corporations, mutual insurance groups or non-profit organizations (SE PIMS only).

III. Multiemployer Contagion:

The contractor shall provide actionable recommendations for analyzing potential contagion effects on employers, unions, and pension plans after the failure of one or more large multiemployer pension plans or after the failure of one or more large employers that participates in more than one multiemployer plan.

Recognizing that ME PIMS currently does not model potential contagion effects, the contractor shall recommend a framework that will enable such modeling. Such a framework may include:

• Mapping the significant contributing employers (those representing at least 5% of a plan’s contributions) with their participation (and level of participation) in other plans.

• Identifying potential events or actions that may occur as a plan approaches insolvency and examining whether such events or actions are likely to affect the availability or cost of capital to contributing employers or to otherwise affect continued employer participation in the plan.

Such events or actions may include, for example, accelerated rates of employer withdrawal, employer credit downgrades, employer accounting disclosures, etc.

• Developing the criteria for scenario analyses for plans approaching insolvency. Such scenarios may include:

o Employers continue to make their contributions despite the plan’s insolvency or imminent insolvency o Certain employers withdraw from the plan and pay their withdrawal liability o Certain employers withdraw from the plan and negotiate an alternative withdrawal liability amount and payment schedule o Employer withdrawals cause the plan’s trustees to declare a mass withdrawal

• Designing and developing sensitivity analyses around the various scenarios identified above.

IV. Deliverables

Bankruptcy

1) SE-PIMS

a) Part 1 (due within 3 months of the contract start date) – a report providing:

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i) An evaluation of the current PIMS model of bankruptcy, its adequacy for modeling risks to PBGC’s single-employer system and identifying weaknesses that could be addressed in the model’s ability to:

(1) reflect the probability of economic cycles and the outcome of those cycles on plan market returns, discount rates, and other actuarial outputs;

(2) reflect the probability of and model the effects of bankruptcies on single-employer plan sponsors, including the likelihood that such bankruptcies will result in a plan termination;

(3) reflect the probability of and model bankruptcies of non-public plan sponsors.

ii) Identification of potential refinements to the current model and/or alternatives to the current model. For each refinement or alternative, the report should explain the nature of the improvements, assess the significance of the improvements and assess any drawbacks (including factors such as costs and difficulty in obtaining required data, and tradeoffs between model complexity and efficacy).

iii) A proposal for what refinements and/or alternatives should be developed.

b) Part 2 (due within 12 months of the contract start date) – a report on the developed model refinements and/or alternatives selected from the Part 1 report. The report should include:

i) Documentation of how the model was developed and tested.

ii) List of data sources.

iii) Estimated parameter values for the model.

iv) Objective measures of what improvements are realized with the developed model.

v) Instructions for updating the data and model parameters.

2) ME-PIMS

a) Part 1 (due within 3 months of the contract start date) – a report providing:

i) An evaluation of the current PIMS of mass withdrawal and of general decline in active participant counts, the current model’s adequacy for modeling risks to PBGC’s multiemployer system identifying weaknesses that could be addressed.

ii) Identification of potential refinements and/or alternatives to the current mass withdrawal modeling and of alternative models of individual contributing sponsor bankruptcy and/or withdrawal. For each refinement or alternative, the report should explain the nature of the improvements, assess the significance of the improvements and assess any drawbacks (including factors such as costs and difficulty in obtaining required data, and tradeoffs between model complexity and efficacy).

iii) A proposal for what refinements and/or alternatives should be developed.

b) [Same as for SE]

Contagion

1) Part 1 (due within 4 months of the contract start date) – a report from a study of significant contributing employers that:

a) Identifies factors affecting plans susceptibility to multiemployer contagion.

b) Provides empirical measurements of the identified factors.

c) Maps significant contributing employers (representing 5% or more of the contribution base) among the multiemployer plan universe.

d) Evaluate the potential effects of looming plan insolvencies on contributing employers’ cost of capital and access to capital through interviews with commercial lenders and other providers of capital, as well as outside auditors.

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e) Recommends scenario analyses based on the findings from the measured contagion factors, the employer mapping, and the interviews with providers of capital and outside auditors.

f) Recommends sensitivity analyses for the scenarios identified in (e) above.

g) Provides PBGC with data created for the report.

2) Part 2 (due within 12 months of the contract start date) – a final report on the scenario analyses and the recommended sensitivity analyses to include within PIMS.

PAGE 5 OF 5 16PBGC18R00100001

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Forms Management

C:PERFORMFORMSS30.FRP

Acrobat PDFWriter 2.01 for Windows D:19971010095222 D:19990614133004 Offers must acknowledge receipt of this amendment prior to the hour and date specified in the solicitation or as amended, by one of the following methods:(a) By completing items 8 and 15, and returning or (c) By separate letter or electronic communication which includes a reference to the solicitation and amendment numbers. FAILURE OF YOUR ACKNOWLEDGMENT TO BE RECEIVED AT THE PLACE DESIGNATED FOR THE RECEIPT OF OFFERS PRIOR TO THE HOUR AND DATE SPECIFIED MAY RESULT IN REJECTION OF YOUR OFFER. If by virtue of this amendment you desire to change an offer already submitted, such change may be made by letter or electronic communication, provided each letter or electronic communication makes reference to the solicitation and this amendment, and is received prior to the opening hour and date specified.

E. IMPORTANT: Contractor is not is required to sign this document and return copies to the issuing office.

AMENDMENT OF SOLICITATION/MODIFICATION OF CONTRACT

1. CONTRACT ID CODE

2. AMENDMENT/MODIFICATION NUMBER

3. EFFECTIVE DATE

4. REQUISITION/PURCHASE REQUISITION NUMBER

5. PROJECT NUMBER (If applicable)

7. ADMINISTERED BY (If other than Item 6)

CODE

STANDARD FORM 30 (REV. 11/2016) Prescribed by GSA FAR (48 CFR) 53.243

FACILITY CODE

9A. AMENDMENT OF SOLICITATION NUMBER

9B. DATED (SEE ITEM 11)

10A. MODIFICATION OF CONTRACT/ORDER NUMBER

10B. DATED (SEE ITEM 13)

11. THIS ITEM ONLY APPLIES TO AMENDMENTS OF SOLICITATIONS

The above numbered solicitation is amended as set forth in Item 14. The hour and date specified for receipt of Offers is extended.

is not extended.

12. ACCOUNTING AND APPROPRIATION DATA (If required) copies of the amendment; (b) By acknowledging receipt of this amendment on each copy of the offer submitted;

13. THIS ITEM APPLIES ONLY TO MODIFICATIONS OF CONTRACTS/ORDERS. IT MODIFIES THE CONTRACT/ORDER NUMBER AS DESCRIBED IN ITEM 14.

CHECK ONE

A. THIS CHANGE ORDER IS ISSUED PURSUANT TO: (Specify authority) THE CHANGES SET FORTH IN ITEM 14 ARE MADE IN THE CONTRACT ORDER NUMBER IN ITEM 10A.

B. THE ABOVE NUMBERED CONTRACT/ORDER IS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGES (such as changes in paying office, appropriation data, etc.) SET FORTH IN ITEM 14, PURSUANT TO THE AUTHORITY OF FAR 43.103(b).

C. THIS SUPPLEMENTAL AGREEMENT IS ENTERED INTO PURSUANT TO AUTHORITY OF:

D. OTHER (Specify type of modification and authority) Except as provided herein, all terms and conditions of the document referenced in Item 9A or 10A, as heretofore changed, remains unchanged and in full force and effect.

15C. DATE SIGNED

15A. NAME AND TITLE OF SIGNER (Type or print)

16C. DATE SIGNED

16A. NAME AND TITLE OF CONTRACTING OFFICER (Type or print)

14. DESCRIPTION OF AMENDMENT/MODIFICATION (Organized by UCF section headings, including solicitation/contract subject matter where feasible.)

PAGE OF PAGES

6. ISSUED BY

CODE

8. NAME AND ADDRESS OF CONTRACTOR (Number, street, county, State and ZIP Code) (X)

CODE

15B. CONTRACTOR/OFFEROR

(Signature of person authorized to sign)

16B. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

(Signature of Contracting Officer) Previous edition unusable Descript: The purpose of this Amendment to solicitation 16PBGC18R0010 is to revise section C.

Section C - Statement of Objectives is hereby revised as follows:

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