Contractor will propose a series of competing hypotheses and compare appropriately derived models…

The Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources awarded a contract to Three Oaks Engineering Inc. on July 9, 2026, with a cumulative value of $24,000.00. The contract period of performance runs from April 1, 2026 through March 31, 2027, with deliverables to be provided to Brian Watson.

Under this contract, Three Oaks Engineering Inc. will conduct statistical modeling and analysis using Program MARK to assess detection, abundance, and survival parameters for the James Spinymussel (Pleurobema collina). The contractor will develop competing hypotheses and compare appropriately derived models to determine how covariates affect the target metrics, identify models with the greatest statistical support, and generate population estimates. The analysis will include a comparison between modeled estimates and quadrat estimates, with particular attention to how model selection uncertainty affects final estimates. The work is designed to provide information necessary to complete four recovery tasks identified in the James Spinymussel Recovery Plan established by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990.