Project Grant R21HD121774

The National Institute of Child Health and Human Development awarded Emory University $415,711 on August 26, 2026, under the Child Health and Human Development Extramural Research program (CFDA 93.865) to develop a Bayesian hierarchical estimation framework for reconstructing under-five population counts at the small-area level, correcting for persistent undercount bias and multi-source uncertainty in Census data.

The research addresses systematic undercounting of children under age five in the decennial Census—5.4 percent in 2020, representing approximately 1.3 million missed young children. Current Census adjustment methods relying on demographic analysis, post-enumeration surveys, and population estimates program projections lack mechanisms to account for bias and uncertainty in component inputs (births, deaths, net migration), rendering them unreliable in small or data-sparse counties where undercount variation is most pronounced and poorly characterized. The proposed work develops tailored methodologies capturing both systematic patterns of undercount and inherent data uncertainty from administrative and survey sources, with emphasis on small counties and rural areas where undercount has been least evaluated. Accurate granular enumeration at small-area levels is necessary for effective targeting of public health funding, resource planning, and monitoring of under-five disease and mortality trends.

Emory University Office of Sponsored Programs is the recipient and prime performer, with place of performance in Atlanta, Georgia. The period of performance runs through July 31, 2028. The assistance type is Project Grant.