Federal Project Grant Summary

The National Institute on Aging (NIA) awarded $680,086.00 to The Regents of the University of California, San Francisco under the Aging Research program (CFDA 93.866) effective April 1, 2026, with completion targeted for January 31, 2031. This project grant will deliver a comprehensive research study quantifying the impact of primary care clinician (PCC) workforce disruptions—including physician turnover and reductions in clinical effort among physicians, nurse practitioners (NPs), and physician assistants (PAs)—on healthcare access and quality outcomes for Medicare-eligible older adults. The research leverages Medicare fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage data covering 93% of the older adult population to identify factors associated with workforce changes and assess their effects on primary care receipt patterns, emergency department utilization, and hospitalization rates.

The deliverables include three primary research objectives: (1) quantifying the number of Medicare patients affected by primary care clinician turnover and sustained reductions in billed clinical effort while identifying associated factors; (2) assessing the impact of these workforce changes on primary care receipt patterns and non-primary care utilization; and (3) evaluating the effects on health outcomes and quality metrics for older adults. These research products will generate evidence-based findings to inform healthcare leadership and policymakers regarding the relationship between primary care workforce stability and care delivery outcomes in the aging population, addressing a critical gap in understanding workforce-related threats to primary care quality and access.