The primary end goal of this work is to establish a comprehensive initialization strategy for the unified forecast system (UFS) coupled atmosphere-ocean numerical forecast model that specifically…

This three-year, $405,234 Project Grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will fund research at the University of Colorado Boulder to develop initialization strategies for the Unified Forecast System coupled atmosphere-ocean numerical forecast model. The goal is to improve probabilistic skill scores for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of 2-8 weeks by ensuring initial ensemble perturbations project onto oscillating eigenfunctions of the Koopman and Perron-Frobenius operators. Researchers will develop a coupled data assimilation approach incorporating this method first in a simplified quasi-geostrophic model and then a low-resolution UFS coupled model. This work advances the Weather and Air Quality Research program's objectives to improve weather modeling and forecasts for protection of life and property.

Activities

The researchers will develop a coupl