Building a framework for resilience to weather-related coastal impacts in the pacific

The Office of Naval Research awarded the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego $2,612,083.51 on October 1, 2025, under the Basic and Applied Scientific Research program (CFDA 12.300) to build a framework for resilience to weather-related coastal impacts in the Pacific through October 1, 2028. Work is performed in California.

The award funds development and refinement of flood prediction models across three strategic Pacific locations to assess wave runup and total water levels at military installations and inform coastal resilience planning. The primary deliverable is a decision-making framework and best practices guidance for island military base planners and leadership on measures to reduce impacts to coastal flooding and maintain mission and operational readiness, including criteria for identifying constraints and tradeoffs in resilience management.

The project operates across a three-year geographic progression: year one focuses on wave runup modeling and morphodynamic assessment on Oahu, Hawaii; year two expands to Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands; and year three applies analysis to San Diego, California. Work includes improvement and refinement of an IPA-type wave runup prediction model and builds upon a mission-based protocol for assessing coastal flooding impacts at installation level.

Scripps passes funding to two sub-recipients. The University of Hawaii at Manoa received a sub-award on December 19, 2025, to integrate total water level estimation into extreme water level assessments using stochastic weather-type emulation from historical oceanographic and meteorological data; a modification dated April 16, 2026, obligated an additional $205,415. Oregon State University received a sub-award on March 24, 2026, to work with the project team applying outcomes from a recent SERDP project demonstrating wave impact incorporation into extreme water level estimates through total water level methodology.